La stabilisation des taux d’intérêt et de l’inflation devrait créer un climat plus favorable à l’investissement et permettre aux sociétés immobilières de poursuivre la mise en œuvre de leur feuille de route tout en faisant preuve de prudence. Dans ce contexte, le commerce et la logistique nous semblent les mieux positionnés et nous privilégions CTP, Merlin Properties, Shurgard, URW, VGP comme les plus à même d’exécuter leur stratégie de croissance. Nous relevons notre opinion à Surperformance su...
With stabilising interest rates and inflation creating a more favourable climate for investment, the stocks in our coverage universe should be able to continue to implement their roadmaps, while remaining cautious. On this basis, we think retail and logistics are the best positioned, and see CTP, Merlin Properties, Shurgard, URW and VGP as the best placed to execute their growth strategies. We are upgrading WDP, Safestore and Instone, to Outperform, downgrading Big Yellow, Colonial-SFL, INEA, L...
European real estate rebounded in 2025, signalling positive momentum after two difficult years. In 2026, we expect investors to adapt to a new, normalised environment with recalibrated profitability that should drive transaction activity. This comes alongside a normalisation of rents (on the back of lower inflation) – a slowdown that will be notable but largely expected. We see a company's ability (and willingness) to pursue EPS-accretive investments and being active in capital recycling opportu...
- Looking ahead to 2026: We expect more supply, around €40bn this year. Fund flows and demand should remain strong; we also can't discount a bit more pressure on spreads as investors look for higher NIPs on new supply. Also watch Hybrids supply this year. The belly (4-6y) of the curve and the longer end (8-10y) offer best value currently, while we prefer either BBB- names, or higher rated (A- to A+) names. - Muted returns in the final quarter of 2025: EUR real estate bonds showed decent returns ...
Gecina has a unique €17bn portfolio of prime offices in Paris that is benefitting from increasing market polarisation and constrained supply of prime space on central locations. While indexation is set to normalise (this is valid for the entire real estate market), we expect positive rent reversion to continue: this is beneficial for rents, asset valuations and LTV. The balance sheet is sound and ready to seize new investment opportunities in a Parisian investment market that is starting to open...
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