On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #47

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at the impact of Donald Trump's election. Happy reading!

Fnac Darty: Officially back to Italy

Fnac Darty now owns 71.5% of Unieuro and has some legal leeway in Italy to force a delisting even with less than 90% of shares. While it is too early to integrate Unieuro into our model, we continue to view this as strategically relevant, while remaining cautious on the execution risks it bears and

Fnac Darty: gross margin-fuelled EBIT guidance upgrade

Post-Q3 marked by disappointing LfL and impressive gross margin expansion fuelled by services and the category mix, we have lifted our FY 2024-26 EBIT by c.2% and expect the consensus to do the same. But the equity story remains polluted by persistent uncertainties concerning the ongoing bid for Un

On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #43

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. As we are now entering the crucial holiday shopping season, this week we look at external facto

On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #42

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the resolution of the ILA port strike which threatened the US holiday sho

On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #38

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we analyse the implications of Chinese tourist flows to Japan. Happy reading!

On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #33

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we take a new look at the latest rumors around Shein London IPO. Happy reading!

Fnac Darty: Q1 LfL decelerating as expected, FY guidance reiterated

The Q1 LfL trend continued to slow in line with estimates while product mix provided a nice 30bp gross margin boost. Even with reiterated FY 2024 EBIT and FCF guidance, uncertainty over the timing of a consumption recovery remains a huge pushback preventing everyone from being more bullish despite

On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #18

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we comment on the CCP accelerating policy support. Happy reading!

Fnac Darty: EBIT miss, FCF beat and limited downside risk from now on

Following a mixed FY publication (EBIT miss, vague EBIT guidance, FCF beat), we now feel that downside risk is limited with the consensus rebasing at last and cash generation helping to set a floor. Upgrade from Sell to Neutral as the lack of short-term M&A speculation and uncertainties around

Anger in the field: five questions stemming from French farmers' block...

With the French farmers' crisis still unresolved, blockades are set to worsen and refocus on Paris as of today with: 1/ short-term issues concerning Parisian grocery stores above all (mostly affecting the New Casino group and to a lesser extent Carrefour), 2/ longer-term issues as we expect lawmake

Fnac Darty: FY 23 guidance threatened by poor Christmas sales

Ahead of FY 2023 results due out in late February, we have cut our FY 2023 EBIT by 6% to reflect what we believe was a poor Christmas season. With EBIT expected at EUR168m, we now consider FY guidance as out of reach and also question the consensus' optimism when it comes to FY 2024 as we are 2% be

Red Sea tensions: looming risk of a new wave of inflation

In our first note last month "Will Red Sea tensions disrupt our groups' supply chains?" we discussed why the first attacks on commercial shipping routes were unlikely to cause major supply chain disruption for our companies, provided they did not last too long. However, since then, the attacks have

Fnac Darty: model update post-warning

Post-Q3 and profit warning, we have cut our FY 2023-25 estimates by c.9% and our PT from EUR27 to EUR21. We now sit in line with the FY 2023 EBIT guidance and below the FY 2021-24 cumulative FCF guidance. Despite being undeniably cheap at 7x PE, we remain cautious with a reiterated Sell rating and

Temu coming to Europe with value/young customers in sight

With Pinduoduo's subsidiary Temu coming to Europe and likely to be as successful as it was in the US in recent months, it is about to become equally important as Shein, Wish and Aliexpress. Value players in fashion/electronics/decoration with low price points and young customers are at risk, but ou

Bryan, Garnier & Co Consumer Daily | Essilor Luxottica, Food retail, r...

Bryan, Garnier & Co Consumer Daily | Spec. Retail, results

Specialised retail: favour Germany over France and Southern Europe

With food inflation still accelerating across Europe (>15%) and a lengthy disinflation process throughout H2, consumption arbitrage is set to continue and affect discretionary goods retailers. Recent trends suggest that France and Southern Europe are really suffering while Germany is benefiting

Bryan, Garnier & Co Consumer Daily | Carrefour, Fnac Darty, Casino