A potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could unlock one of the largest reconstruction efforts in modern history. The World Bank estimates Ukraine will need USD486bn in rebuilding efforts over the next decade, but we estimate this would add only c2% to annual European construction spending. While the direct earnings effect may be modest, we expect the “rebuild Ukraine theme” to drive investor sentiment. We see Volvo, Epiroc, Hexagon, Metso, Hiab and ABB as some of the primary beneficia...
We have raised our 2025–2026e clean EPS by 2% after solid Q4 order and profit outperformances for Energy plants and Service, even adjusting for the large Storage order beat but profit miss. We continue to highlight the quality and attractive valuation of the core business. We reiterate our BUY and EUR22 target price.
Our analysis shows that Finnish industrials have improved their earnings quality over the past 10 years, supported by expanding Service profitability and shares of total sales and earnings. We believe this together with improved stability, visibility and financials should be better rewarded in the valuations. We have a positive sector stance and highlight Konecranes, Metso and Valmet on potential multiples expansion.
Following softer clean EBIT and orders in core Marine and Energy than we expected in Q3, partly offset by a stronger non-core portfolio, we have cut our 2024–2026e clean EBIT by c4% on average (core c-5%, non-core c+40%). We reiterate our BUY, but have slightly lowered our target price to EUR22 (23).
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