Based on recent news flow relating to Energy and FX, we have cut our 2025–2027e clean EPS by 5% on average and our target price to EUR20 (22). We reiterate our BUY and continue to highlight Wärtsilä’s solid earnings quality and attractive valuation. The Q1 results are due on 25 April (no details available). Our forecast orders and clean EBIT are below post-Q4 consensus.
A potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could unlock one of the largest reconstruction efforts in modern history. The World Bank estimates Ukraine will need USD486bn in rebuilding efforts over the next decade, but we estimate this would add only c2% to annual European construction spending. While the direct earnings effect may be modest, we expect the “rebuild Ukraine theme” to drive investor sentiment. We see Volvo, Epiroc, Hexagon, Metso, Hiab and ABB as some of the primary beneficia...
We have raised our 2025–2026e clean EPS by 2% after solid Q4 order and profit outperformances for Energy plants and Service, even adjusting for the large Storage order beat but profit miss. We continue to highlight the quality and attractive valuation of the core business. We reiterate our BUY and EUR22 target price.
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