End of coverage

From 19th July 2024 we will no longer include the following companies in our research coverage:AdyenWorldlineEdenredNexiMensch und Maschine

Have payments hit bottom yet?

In October 2023, we adopted a negative view on the payment sector, citing commoditisation risks and a bleak macroeconomic outlook as threats to the companies in our coverage. While commoditisation remains a concern, we are now more optimistic about the macro environment. To answer the initial quest

Have payments hit the bottom yet ? - Nexi

In October 2023, we adopted a negative view on the payment sector, citing commoditization risks and a bleak macroeconomic outlook as threats to the companies in our coverage. While commoditization remains a concern, we are now more optimistic about the macro. To answer the initial question, we beli

Nexi - Solid start to the year

Nexi reported solid numbers in Q1 2024 with 6.0% revenue growth that was 70bp above expectations. As the consensus already factors in a deceleration in organic growth and a contained increase in profitability for FY2024e, we see limited downside to current expectations. Given that the valuation mul

Macro headwinds keep blowing

In a sector note we review the macroeconomic and sector-specific headwinds faced by the payment industry. We also take the opportunity to revise our numbers on Nexi. We remain sellers of the name, which we consider will not be able to meet its guidance implying an acceleration in organic growth in

Macro headwinds keep blowing

In this paper, we review the macroeconomic and sector-specific headwinds faced by the payment industry. We also take the opportunity to revise our numbers on Nexi and Worldline. We upgrade to Neutral (from Sell) on Worldline, as the October profit warning did reset expectations to a reasonable leve

In line and resilient

In line with our forecasts and the consensus, revenue and profitability numbers showed some resilience in Q3 2023, despite the toughening macroeconomic environment. Although reiterated FY 2023e revenue guidance pointing to >7% organic growth seems achievable, we remain sceptical about the expect

No longer paying off

In this paper, we review the investment cases of payment stocks in light of our increasingly bearish stance on the macroeconomic environment and the disruption risk faced by the sector. We have therefore cut our estimates, PT and recommendations for Nexi (Sell, EUR7 PT vs Neutral, EUR11PT) and Worl

Unfit to tackle macroeconomic challenges

As detailed in our sector note, we are turning negative on the European payments industry. We argue that the challenging macroeconomic environment and commoditisation risk in the sector offer more downside risk than upside potential. We are changing our recommendation from Neutral to Sell and our P

FIS' merchant business takeover reviving the speculative interests ?

As GTCR nears a deal with FIS to take over its payment business, the speculations around M&A heat up in the payment sector. We therefore review the potential exit options for Worldline and Nexi shareholders. While Worldline could appeal to financial investors willing to turnaround operations an

Bryan, Garnier & Co Technology Daily | Nexi, SAP, Indra Sistemas, TKH

No surprises in FY 2022 figures but disappointing outlook

Nexi has unveiled a set of in-line Q4 and FY 2022 results this morning with Q4 2022 revenues of EUR879.5m (+4.0%) and EBITDA margin at 51.3%. Despite being in line with expectations, these figures are weak in absolute terms and we consider guidance disappointing. The latter points to at least 7% or

Bryan, Garnier & Co Technology Daily | Nexi, Nel

Nexi to form a JV with Sabadell in Spain

Nexi has purchased an 80% stake in a newly-formed JV with Banco de Sbadell in Spain for EUR280m. The decently priced deal (11.5x EV/EBITDA) and the solid growth prospects of the Iberian market paired with significant synergy potential lead us to think the deal will be value-accretive. Buy rating an