In October 2023, we adopted a negative view on the payment sector, citing commoditisation risks and a bleak macroeconomic outlook as threats to the companies in our coverage. While commoditisation remains a concern, we are now more optimistic about the macro environment. To answer the initial quest
In October 2023, we adopted a negative view on the payment sector, citing commoditization risks and a bleak macroeconomic outlook as threats to the companies in our coverage. While commoditization remains a concern, we are now more optimistic about the macro. To answer the initial question, we beli
In October 2023, we adopted a negative view on the payment sector, citing commoditization risks and a bleak macroeconomic outlook as threats to the companies in our coverage. While commoditization remains a concern, we are now more optimistic about the macro. To answer the initial question, we beli
Nexi reported solid numbers in Q1 2024 with 6.0% revenue growth that was 70bp above expectations. As the consensus already factors in a deceleration in organic growth and a contained increase in profitability for FY2024e, we see limited downside to current expectations. Given that the valuation mul
Worldline reported 2.5% organic growth in Q1 2024, weak in absolute terms but better than anticipated by the market and us. We wait for a clear uptick in momentum and the confirmation of an improved profitability to turn positive on the stock; which is arguably far from expensive at 5.1x EV/NTM EBI
Worldline reported Q4 2023 results this morning, a touch below expectations on revenue but better than expected on profitability and FCF generation. As a reminder, the company had to cut its FY guidance in Q3 2023 to take into account the impact of the slowdown in consumer spending and the terminat
In a sector note we review the macroeconomic and sector-specific headwinds faced by the payment industry. We also take the opportunity to revise our numbers on Worldline. We turn Neutral (from Sell) on the French name as the October profit warning reset expectations to a reasonable level. Our PT mo
In a sector note we review the macroeconomic and sector-specific headwinds faced by the payment industry. We also take the opportunity to revise our numbers on Nexi. We remain sellers of the name, which we consider will not be able to meet its guidance implying an acceleration in organic growth in
In this paper, we review the macroeconomic and sector-specific headwinds faced by the payment industry. We also take the opportunity to revise our numbers on Nexi and Worldline. We upgrade to Neutral (from Sell) on Worldline, as the October profit warning did reset expectations to a reasonable leve
In line with our forecasts and the consensus, revenue and profitability numbers showed some resilience in Q3 2023, despite the toughening macroeconomic environment. Although reiterated FY 2023e revenue guidance pointing to >7% organic growth seems achievable, we remain sceptical about the expect
Worldline has reported disappointing Q3 2023 revenue missing consensus estimates by 2.5%. Acknowledging the slowdown in the economy, the group has also reduced its FY 2023e guidance to +6-7%, implying a harsh Q4 2023e. We have cut our expectations to the low end of the new guidance range, and slash
In this paper, we review the investment cases of payment stocks in light of our increasingly bearish stance on the macroeconomic environment and the disruption risk faced by the sector. We have therefore cut our estimates, PT and recommendations for Nexi (Sell, EUR7 PT vs Neutral, EUR11PT) and Worl
As detailed in our sector note, we are turning negative on the European payments industry. We argue that the challenging macroeconomic environment and commoditisation risk in the sector offer more downside risk than upside potential. We are changing our recommendation from Neutral to Sell and our P
As detailed in our sector note, we are turning negative on the European payments industry. We argue that the challenging macroeconomic environment and the commoditisation risk in the sector offer more downside risk than upside potential. We are changing our recommendation on Worldline from Buy to N
As GTCR nears a deal with FIS to take over its payment business, the speculations around M&A heat up in the payment sector. We therefore review the potential exit options for Worldline and Nexi shareholders. While Worldline could appeal to financial investors willing to turnaround operations an
This morning's resilient Q1 2023 revenue figures of +9.2% Y/Y slightly exceed consensus expectations by 1.2%. The reiterated guidance pointing to +8-10% LFL revenue growth in FY 2023e, at par with market estimates, seems largely achievable. BUY, €61.00 PT confirmed.
Worldline has announced an agreement with Crédit Agricole to form a joint company in merchant services, thereby confirming recent press rumours. We expect the deal to prove accretive on the income statement while leaving no stains on the balance sheet.
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