IFIS is generating balance sheet growth across many businesses including core trade receivable financing (with initiatives in pharmaceuticals and multi-utilities) and distressed retail loans. Despite this growth, capital ratios remain exemplary. In 2016 and beyond, this loan growth should deliver underlying, sustainable profit growth. Credit remains excellent. Our forecast 2016 PBT and EPS are largely unchanged.
The group’s strategy to replace bond profits with flows from sustainable business operations continues to be delivered, broadly speaking. Strong growth in the core trade receivables business and in the distressed loans operation meant the group net profit from financial activities fell just €2m to €57m (Q315 vs Q314) despite a €13m reduction in bond portfolio contribution. The bond portfolio contributed less than 10% of group’s net profit from financial activities (Q314 33%). Costs wer...
The key development in Q215 was the already announced crystallisation of the bond portfolio profits, generating a pre-tax gain of €124m. This realised gain is now in regulatory capital. The core business continued to show good growth, especially in the distressed loans and tax receivables units (revenue growth was 9%), and credit quality remained excellent. Further investment has been made to grow existing and new business lines.
In the past week Banca IFIS has made two announcements that reinforce confidence in our expected profit growth. On 23 June it announced the acquisition of three NPL portfolios with a total nominal value of €883m, increasing the number of customers by c 100k (to 900k). On 17 June it announced an expansion into the niche pharmacy market. IFIS has strong capital and liquidity and can exploit market opportunities to grow.
Banca IFIS’s Q115 results continued recent trends with the core businesses delivering profit growth, which more than offset the decline in contribution from the managing down of the bond portfolio. Net banking income (revenue) was up 3% and pre-tax profits 6% on Q114. In April 2015, IFIS sold its existing bond portfolio for a pre-tax gain of c €120m. There has been reinvestment in longer-term bonds at a lower yield.
In 2014 management delivered what it promised. The strong profits historically earned on the Italian government bond portfolio have been fully replaced by core trade receivable and distressed loan growth. Credit quality has continued to improve. Looking forward the franchise growth delivered in 2014 bodes well for future growth. These trends were expected but we have modestly increased our 2015 pre-tax profit and EPS forecasts.
Banca IFIS (IFIS) reported Q314 net profit of €24.1m, up 5% on Q313. Growth in the core business and the distressed loan business profits have more than replaced lower bond earnings as maturing bonds have not been reinvested. Credit quality continues to improve despite an indifferent macroeconomic outturn. Core Tier 1 is nearly 15% (20% including unrecognised gains) and retail deposits exceed lending by over €1.bn. The bond portfolio is now 13x the equity base, having been 22x at end 2013.
Banca IFIS targeted to more than offset reducing profits on its government bond portfolio with better-quality core business earnings; it delivered this goal in Q214. Trade Receivable customer numbers and trading activity are growing strongly (up over 10% and 50% respectively) with improving credit trends. The distressed loan business has been expanded through portfolio acquisition and restructured to deliver significant improvements in profitability in future. The bond portfolio has reduced as l...
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