reports
- Richard Williamson
Northern Data Group - Continued progress as a diversified HPC provider
Northern Data Group demonstrated progress made in Q124 alongside a capital markets day update, as it takes further steps in becoming a diversified high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructure solutions provider. It expects to deploy 20,000 NVIDIA H100 graphic processing units in FY24, cementing its position as Europe’s foremost AI hardware cluster. Key to this, 85% of its H100 capacity has already been sold. Management’s ambitious guidance is unchanged, expecting revenue of €200–240m in FY24 ...
- Sean Conroy
Oryzon Genomics - Doubling down on clinical activity in 2024
Oryzon’s Q124 results emphasised the company’s focus on advancing and expanding its CNS and oncology pipelines, driven by its core assets, vafidemstat and iadademstat. Operating performance was in line, with the lower opex (37% y-o-y decline to €3.2m) driven by reduced R&D spending following completion of the Phase IIb PORTICO trial. Notwithstanding the mixed PORTICO results in borderline personality disorder (BPD), we expect clinical activity to pick up in the coming months, with the initiation...
- Toby Thorrington
AVAX - Strong pipeline reaffirmed
AVAX’s FY23 results highlight the group’s progress domestically as the market improved, more than offsetting the weaker international performance at the top-line and EBITDA level. We have downgraded our 2024 EPS estimates to reflect guidance on continued construction project delays. However, our forecasts incorporate a substantial y-o-y increase in profits, with both PBT and net income more than doubling, bolstered by a record order book of €3.3bn. Our fair value stands at €3.0/share (€3.2/share...
- Richard Williamson
MGI - Media and Games Invest - A strong start to the year
MGI’s Q124 report shows an impressive 21% organic revenue uplift over Q123, with both good new client recruitment and higher spend from existing clients as corporate confidence rebuilds. With the market shift towards privacy-first advertising, despite Google’s continued deadline extensions for full cookie withdrawal, MGI’s AI-driven contextual targeting solution is well-placed. The move to a single infrastructure on the Google cloud should enhance scalability and improve efficiency. Our forecast...
- Richard Williamson
Claranova - EBITDA improvement across all divisions
On relatively flat H124 revenue, Claranova grew adjusted EBITDA more than 50% year-on-year as the focus on profitability over growth started to deliver. With Avanquest’s loss-making non-core business reducing, myDevices hitting break-even and customer acquisition costs back under control in PlanetArt, the company is better positioned to drive profitable growth. Management is targeting an adjusted EBITDA margin of c 10% in FY24. The company has refinanced its debt, providing funds to repay the OC...
- Sean Conroy
IRLAB Therapeutics - MSRD agreement early validation for IRL757
The McQuade Center for Strategic Research and Development (MSRD) has signed an exclusive R&D collaboration for Irlab’s pre-clinical candidate IRL757, following recent clearance by Swedish authorities to start clinical trials. This positive development provides early validation of IRLAB’s pre-clinical pipeline, in our view, and potential upside to our valuation provided there is clinical progress. Under the collaboration, MSRD will fund IRL757’s clinical development to proof-of-concept (PoC) in a...
- Martyn King
Custodian Property Income REIT - Significant uplift in fully covered D...
Custodian Property Income REIT (CREI) produced a strong Q424 performance, driven by leasing progress and rental growth, rounding off a positive year. Reflecting FY24 performance, the company will pay a special dividend of 0.3p per share, additional to aggregate quarterly DPS of 5.5p, fully covered by EPRA earnings. The FY25 annual DPS target is increased by 9% to 6.0p, underpinned by the continuing strength of the commercial property occupier market and CREI’s increasing confidence in the outloo...
- Pedro Fonseca
Canadian General Investments - Adding to positive long-term performanc...
Canadian General Investments (CGI) has delivered a very commendable long-term performance versus the Canadian market. Longstanding manager Greg Eckel at Morgan Meighen & Associates (MMA) is unphased by stock market volatility, following a fundamental, long-term approach to stock selection. He has taken advantage of the maximum 25% permitted allocation to US stocks to increase CGI’s returns, including a position in NVIDIA, which has been in the portfolio since 2016. The manager is unconstrained b...
- Sean Conroy
Recce Pharmaceuticals - Advances on several fronts
Recce Pharmaceuticals has reported several encouraging developments in recent weeks for its lead development compound RECCE® 327 (R327). The intravenous (IV) R327 formulation is advancing to a higher dose level (4,000mg) in its ongoing Phase I/II rapid infusion study and the company is progressing in its plan to submit a US Investigational New Drug (IND) application to commence a US Phase II complicated urinary tract infection (cUTI) study before end-CY24. Recce is also planning to start an Indo...
- Toby Thorrington
PB Holding - Net loss of €2.6m in FY23
PB Holding reported FY23 results on 26 April. The company's most important asset, the 5.3% stake in insurer for the mobility sector Bovemij, reported its FY23 results in March. Dividends from this participation are the main source of liquidity and income for PB Holding. In FY23, Bovemij paid an anniversary dividend amounting to €0.3m (FY22: €0.5m) for PB Holding. PB Holding wants to have enough liquidity to cover at least two years of its expenses (approximately €0.25m per year), which we believ...
- Alison Turner
Sylvania Platinum - Annual guidance maintained, despite strike
Sylvania has maintained annual production guidance despite Q324 results being affected by a 22-day strike, resulting in 10% lower production. The PGM basket price was stable during the quarter, with positive platinum momentum offset by palladium weakness and rhodium prices stable. Operating costs increased by 5.6%, in line with expectations. FY24 production guidance is for 75,000–76,000oz, despite the challenges in Q324. Our PGM outlook is unchanged from our moderated forecasts earlier in the ye...
- Richard Williamson
1Spatial - Investing in the transformational SaaS opportunity
1Spatial’s FY24 results reflected robust momentum for the enterprise business and continued improvement in the revenue mix, with investment in growth suppressing margin and cash generation. This investment phase will continue in FY25 to lay the foundation for transformational growth from 1Streetworks and in the US in the coming years. Our scenario analysis indicates the upside from successful execution is significant, with further wins for 1Streetworks and in the US being the key catalysts for m...
- Richard Williamson
Datatec - FY24 underlying EPS more than doubles y-o-y
In a second more detailed trading update for FY24, Datatec confirmed revenue growth of 6% to $5.46bn, with Westcon International delivering excellent performance, Logicalis International having a strong H2 and Logicalis Latin America affected by difficult market conditions in Argentina and Brazil. The company also provided provisional EPS data, with reported EPS likely to come in ahead of our forecast and underlying EPS just below our forecast. We maintain our forecasts pending FY24 results on o...
- Alison Turner
Pan American Silver - La Arena divestment
Pan American Silver (PAAS) has announced a sale of the La Arena and La Arena II projects to Zijin Mining for US$245m in cash, US$50m in a contingent payment and a 1.5% NSR gold royalty. La Arena II is a copper and gold sulphide deposit that sits underneath the currently producing La Arena gold project. We view the transaction as positive for PAAS, given La Arena’s very short mine life, significant capex required to bring La Arena II into production and the fact that copper is not PAAS’s core com...
- Richard Williamson
SenSen Networks - Time to scale
SenSen’s Q324 results reflect the move to a lower cost base that provides a platform for future profitability. Minor delays to the National Heavy Vehicle Regulator (NHVR) contract affected Q3 but should not affect FY24 as most of the deployment is now complete. North American Smart Cities growth is gaining traction via partnerships, underpinning Q424 momentum alongside strong fuel theft solution uptake. Restructuring to drive a return to sustainable free cash flow is mostly complete but resulted...
- Pedro Fonseca
Molten Ventures - Forward Partners deal completed
Molten Ventures has recently completed the acquisition of Forward Partners, which allowed Molten to further broaden its portfolio, add a complementary strategy focused on earlier stage companies and potentially provide a pipeline of new core holdings. Furthermore, its recent equity raise gave Molten the funds to pursue new investments in what it currently considers a buyer’s market, with an emphasis on the venture capital (VC) secondary market. In FY24 (to end-March 2024), Molten’s gross portfol...
- Toby Thorrington
Melrose Industries - Steady climb
Melrose Industries continues to deliver strong performance improvements and is on track to achieve its ambitious margin targets in 2025 (Engines 28% and Structures 9%). As a focused aerospace group, Melrose is also benefiting from the positive long-term drivers in the sector with record civil order backlog. This bodes well for continued earnings momentum and cash generation to drive shareholder value.
- Martyn King
Picton Property Income - Unlocking value to drive DPS growth
Ahead of FY24 results to be published on 23 May, Picton Property Income has declared a Q424 DPS of 0.925p, a 5.7% increase on the previous quarter. The company intends to maintain fully covered dividends at the new level, an annualised run rate of 3.7p, well above the pre-pandemic DPS and the 3.5p paid in respect of FY24. The uplift reflects a continuing robust occupier market, supporting rental growth, as well as asset management activity, most notably the recent sale of Angel Gate. The sale wa...
- Sean Conroy
AFT Pharmaceuticals - Maxigesic IV’s Brazil entry, a foray into LATAM
AFT continues to expand its Maxigesic IV footprint with the announcement of a licensing agreement in Brazil, the largest pharma market in South America and tenth largest market globally. The deal signed with Halex Istar, a leading manufacturer of injectables in the country, provides a strong foundation for further extension into the Latin American and global markets, an overarching long-term goal for AFT. Maxigesic IV is a higher-strength version of AFT’s proprietary paracetamol plus ibuprofen f...
- Fiona Orford-Williams
The Pebble Group - Two distinct businesses in one
The Pebble Group’s AGM update confirms that trading is in line with FY24 expectations, with attractive opportunities for its two distinct businesses in the large, fragmented promotional products sector. Facilisgroup is a SaaS business, helping North American distributors to optimise their operations, with access to an approved supplier roster. Brand Addition services global brands’ needs for branded product for in-house and external programmes. The well-publicised dip in tech sector marketing sp...
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