reports
- Bruno Cavalier
Will fiscal laxity ever be punished by the markets?
The bond rally at the end of 2023 has largely corrected. Long-term interest rates have regained more than half of their decline over November and December. The main reason for their rise is the shift in monetary policy expectations against a backdrop of persistent inflation. The Fed's rate cuts have been postponed and reduced in scope. As a result, this will increase interest payments on federal debt. The state of public finances is a non-issue in an election year. No candidate w...
- Bruno Cavalier
Le laxisme budgétaire sera-t-il un jour sanctionné par les marchés ?
Le rally obligataire de la fin 2023 s’est en large partie corrigé. Les taux d’intérêt à long terme ont retracé plus de la moitié de leur baisse sur novembre et décembre. Leur hausse a pour cause première le changement d’anticipations de la politique monétaire sur fond de persistance de l’inflation. Les baisses de taux de la Fed sont retardées et leur ampleur s’en trouve réduite. Cela va alourdir le service d’intérêt sur la dette fédérale. La situation des finances publiques est u...
- Carole Braudeau
Credit Morning 04/25/2024
Atos: weak Q1 2024 results, need for fresh funds has already increasedVerisure launches a new term loan; new bonds to followVerallia: Q1 2024 logically weak but the recovery in demand is confirmedAngloAmerican Plc: Takeover offer from BHP Group for the entire share capital>...
CO CASINO GUICHARD-PERRACHON SA
CA CARREFOUR SA
BVI BUREAU VERITAS SA
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
BNP BNP PARIBAS SA CLASS A
ATO ATOS SE
DBK DEUTSCHE BANK AG
EO FAURECIA SA
FNAC FNAC DARTY SA
ERA ERAMET SA
KGX KION GROUP AG
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
WBD WEBUILD S.P.A.
VLTSA VOLTALIA
SPIE SPIE SA
BHP BHP GROUP LTD
DHER DELIVERY HERO SE
SAB BANCO DE SABADELL SA
HFG HELLOFRESH SE
VRLA VERALLIA SAS
ERF EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC SOCIETE EUROPEENNE
ADE ADEVINTA ASA
- Carole Braudeau
Morning Crédit 25/04/2024
Atos : faibles résultats au T1 2024, les besoins de nouveaux fonds a augmentéVerisure lance un nouveau term loan ; des nouvelles obligations suivrontVerallia : T1 2024 logiquement faible mais la reprise de la demande se confirmeAngloAmerican PLC : Offre de rachat sur la totalité du capital par BHP>...
CO CASINO GUICHARD-PERRACHON SA
CA CARREFOUR SA
BVI BUREAU VERITAS SA
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
BNP BNP PARIBAS SA CLASS A
ATO ATOS SE
DBK DEUTSCHE BANK AG
EO FAURECIA SA
FNAC FNAC DARTY SA
ERA ERAMET SA
KGX KION GROUP AG
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
WBD WEBUILD S.P.A.
VLTSA VOLTALIA
SPIE SPIE SA
BHP BHP GROUP LTD
DHER DELIVERY HERO SE
SAB BANCO DE SABADELL SA
HFG HELLOFRESH SE
VRLA VERALLIA SAS
ERF EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC SOCIETE EUROPEENNE
ADE ADEVINTA ASA
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Emmanuel Matot
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Konrad Zomer
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/25/2024
Having flirted with the 495-point mark on Friday, which could have triggered an extension of the correction, the market has rebounded well since then. Our technical analysis highlights a configuration in which we are only at the start of a powerful rally. Target of 622 points for Stoxx 600 index (+11%) by the end of the year confirmed. Prefer banks to insurance companies in the short term. - ...
LHN LAFARGEHOLCIM LTD.
REL RELX PLC
GET GETLINK SE
IPN IPSEN SA
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
WCH WACKER CHEMIE AG
CA CARREFOUR SA
BVI BUREAU VERITAS SA
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
KNEBV KONE OYJ CLASS B
ORA ORANGE SA
RI PERNOD RICARD SA
ULVR UNILEVER PLC
GLE SOCIETE GENERALE S.A. CLASS A
NESN NESTLE S.A.
ENI ENI S.P.A.
BAS BASF SE
SAN SANOFI
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
SY1 SYMRISE AG
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
KGX KION GROUP AG
MONC MONCLER SPA
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
IBE IBERDROLA SA
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
HFG HELLOFRESH SE
ADYEN ADYEN NV
ERF EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC SOCIETE EUROPEENNE
DSY DASSAULT SYSTEMES SA
AZE AZELIS GROUP NV
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
DSFIR KONINKLIJKE DSM N.V.
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Luis de Toledo Heras
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 04/25/2024
Having flirted with the 495-point mark on Friday, which could have triggered an extension of the correction, the market has rebounded well since then. Our technical analysis highlights a configuration in which we are only at the start of a powerful rally. Target of 622 points for Stoxx 600 index (+11%) by the end of the year confirmed. Prefer banks to insurance companies in the short term. - ...
ATO ATOS SE
CEN GROUPE CRIT SA
SDG SYNERGIE SA
MMB LAGARDERE SCA
ITP INTERPARFUMS
HCO HIGHCO SA
MRN MERSEN SA
LSS LECTRA SA
GOE GROUPE GORGE SA
FNAC FNAC DARTY SA
GLO GL EVENTS SA
EBRO EBRO FOODS SA
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
ERA ERAMET SA
VRNL VERNEUIL PARTICIPATIONS
AIXA AIXTRON SE
ALVIV VISIATIV SA
MELE MELEXIS NV
ALVDM VOYAGEURS DU MONDE SA
ARG ARGAN SA
ADOC ADOCIA SA
VLTSA VOLTALIA
SPIE SPIE SA
LFDE LA FRANCAISE DE L'ENERGIE SA
COPN COSMO PHARMACEUTICALS NV
SAE SHOP APOTHEKE EUROPE NV
XFAB X-FAB SILICON FOUNDRIES SE
SMCP SMCP SA
BFSA BEFESA SA
VOS VOSSLOH AG
AEDAS AEDAS HOMES SA
VRLA VERALLIA SAS
TCH TECHNICOLOR SA
SOL SOLTEC POWER HOLDINGS
BLV BELIEVE SA
FUR FUGRO NV
RWI RENEWI PLC
FLOW FLOW TRADERS LTD
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Emmanuel Matot
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Konrad Zomer
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 25/04/2024
Après avoir frôlé vendredi la barre des 495 points qui aurait pu déclencher la poursuite de la correction, le marché a ensuite bien rebondi. Notre analyse technique met en lumière une configuration où nous ne serions qu’au début d’un rallye puissant. Objectif 622 points (+11%) d’ici à la fin de l’année confirmé sur le Stoxx 600. Préférer les banques aux assurances à court terme. - ...
LHN LAFARGEHOLCIM LTD.
REL RELX PLC
GET GETLINK SE
IPN IPSEN SA
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
WCH WACKER CHEMIE AG
CA CARREFOUR SA
BVI BUREAU VERITAS SA
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
KNEBV KONE OYJ CLASS B
ORA ORANGE SA
RI PERNOD RICARD SA
ULVR UNILEVER PLC
GLE SOCIETE GENERALE S.A. CLASS A
NESN NESTLE S.A.
ENI ENI S.P.A.
BAS BASF SE
SAN SANOFI
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
SY1 SYMRISE AG
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
KGX KION GROUP AG
MONC MONCLER SPA
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
IBE IBERDROLA SA
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
HFG HELLOFRESH SE
ADYEN ADYEN NV
ERF EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC SOCIETE EUROPEENNE
DSY DASSAULT SYSTEMES SA
AZE AZELIS GROUP NV
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
DSFIR KONINKLIJKE DSM N.V.
- Jean-François Granjon
Crit : Surperformance vs le marché
>Publication du CA T1 en ligne avec nos attentes - Crit publie un CA T1 de 584.5 M€ (582.1 M€ estimé) vs 583 M€ YoY en hausse de 0.3% et 0.1% en organique. Il est le reflet d’un début d’année difficile pour le marché du Travail Temporaire dans la foulée de la fin de l’année passée. Le CA TT ressort ainsi à 468.3 M€ (470.2 M€ estimé) vs 479.8 M€ YoY en repli de 2.4% et -2.5% en organique mais -1% à nombre de jours ouvrés constants (CJO). Le CA TT France ressort à 339.5...
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Luis de Toledo Heras
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 25/04/2024
Après avoir frôlé vendredi la barre des 495 points qui aurait pu déclencher la poursuite de la correction, le marché a ensuite bien rebondi. Notre analyse technique met en lumière une configuration où nous ne serions qu’au début d’un rallye puissant. Objectif 622 points (+11%) d’ici à la fin de l’année confirmé sur le Stoxx 600. Préférer les banques aux assurances à court terme. - ...
ATO ATOS SE
CEN GROUPE CRIT SA
SDG SYNERGIE SA
MMB LAGARDERE SCA
ITP INTERPARFUMS
HCO HIGHCO SA
MRN MERSEN SA
LSS LECTRA SA
GOE GROUPE GORGE SA
FNAC FNAC DARTY SA
GLO GL EVENTS SA
EBRO EBRO FOODS SA
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
ERA ERAMET SA
VRNL VERNEUIL PARTICIPATIONS
AIXA AIXTRON SE
ALVIV VISIATIV SA
MELE MELEXIS NV
ALVDM VOYAGEURS DU MONDE SA
ARG ARGAN SA
ADOC ADOCIA SA
VLTSA VOLTALIA
SPIE SPIE SA
LFDE LA FRANCAISE DE L'ENERGIE SA
COPN COSMO PHARMACEUTICALS NV
SAE SHOP APOTHEKE EUROPE NV
XFAB X-FAB SILICON FOUNDRIES SE
SMCP SMCP SA
BFSA BEFESA SA
VOS VOSSLOH AG
AEDAS AEDAS HOMES SA
VRLA VERALLIA SAS
TCH TECHNICOLOR SA
SOL SOLTEC POWER HOLDINGS
BLV BELIEVE SA
FUR FUGRO NV
RWI RENEWI PLC
FLOW FLOW TRADERS LTD
- Nicolas David
Atos : Q1 org growth above expectations, at -2.6%, but very weak book-...
>Q1 org growth of -2.6%, above expectations thanks to Tech Foundation - Atos just released its Q1 2024 sales. Q1 2024 revenue stood at € 2,479m, 1.1% above css expectations and -2.8% below our estimates (ODDO BHF: € 2,551m; css: € 2,452m). This implies organic growth at -2.6%, 110bp above css expectations (vs ODDO BHF: -2.3% org; css: -3.7% org.), slowing down sharply vs previous quarter (vs -0.6% org in Q4 2023) due to Eviden weakness. By division, i/Tech Foundations...
- Nicolas David
Atos : Q1 org growth above expectations, at -2.6%, but very weak book-...
>Q1 org growth of -2.6%, above expectations thanks to Tech Foundation - Atos just released its Q1 2024 sales. Q1 2024 revenue stood at € 2,479m, 1.1% above css expectations and -2.8% below our estimates (ODDO BHF: € 2,551m; css: € 2,452m). This implies organic growth at -2.6%, 110bp above css expectations (vs ODDO BHF: -2.3% org; css: -3.7% org.), slowing down sharply vs previous quarter (vs -0.6% org in Q4 2023) due to Eviden weakness. By division, i/Tech Foundations...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
Wizz Air : Reassuring trading update for FY 2024
>FY 2024 pretty much in line with expectations - Wizz Air has just released an unaudited post-close trading update for the FY to end-March 2024. Net income is expected in the range of € 350 - 370m for FY, in line with guidance. We were expecting € 357m and the Visible Alpha consensus €352m. Total revenue is expected to be in the range of € 5,050 - 5,100m (ODDO BHF: € 5,165m, VA € 5,154m) reflecting stronger ticket revenue and pricing, partially offset by softer ...
- Jean-François Granjon
Synergie : Good performance outside France
>Q1 sales publication close to our expectations - Synergie published Q1 sales of € 751.4m (€ 756.9m est.) vs € 724.7m y-o-y, up +3.7% and +1.9% organically. This is a good performance as the Temporary Work market has been in decline in the main markets since the start of the year. By geographical area, we note for France a decline of 2.8% due to the drop in volumes continuing at the end of last year and for International an increase of +8.6% driven among other things ...
- Geoffroy Michalet
Bureau Veritas : A very solid Q1– Guidance confirmed
>Q1 revenues higher than expected - Revenues amounted to € 1,440m, which is 2.5% higher than in Q1 2023. We had expected € 1,474m (4.9%e, due to a forex error) and the consensus € 1,435m (1.4%). Organic growth reached 8.0%, above our forecast (5.9%) and that of the consensus (6.5%). The FX impact came to -5.6% (ODDO BHF -1.0%e, consensus -5.0%). Overall, the momentum was very robust in all the group’s divisions, exceeding our expectations with: Single-digit...
- Pierre Tegner
Unilever PLC : A good, high quality start to the year: +2.2% volume/mi...
>Q1 sales 2% above expectations - Q1 sales at € 14,963m were up +1.4% (vs cons. at -0.7%) with a forex effect of -2% (vs css at -3% ), a scope impact of -0.9% and organic growth of 4.4% vs the consensus at 2.9%.The outlook for 2024 is confirmed with 3% to 5% l-f-l, moderate margin improvement. The CEO highlighted increasing confidence in accelerating gross margin expansion and delivering sustained volume growth and a positive mix. On ice cream and the sepa...
- Emna Ben Bdira
- Maxime Kogge
Eramet : Good Q1 release and importantly 2024 EBITDA estimate raised t...
>Good Q1 release driven by Comilog - Eramet this morning reported adjusted sales of € 761m, 3% above our estimates driven by a robust performance in the core manganese division. Manganese ore output (Comilog) posted a record performance for a first quarter while alloy production recovered with the normalisation in energy prices. Nickel production at Weda Bay was also robust even though sales were slowed down by the lack of permits for low grade saprolites, still under...
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
BE Semiconductor Industries : Weak Q1 2024 orders and Q2 guidance poin...
>Q1 2024 results below expectations, with a disappointing order intake - BESI reported its Q1 2024 results which were below expectations, notably on the order intake. Revenues were € 146m, down 8% q-o-q and up 10% y-o-y, due primarily to lower shipments for high-performance computing and automotive end-user markets, partially offset by higher shipments for high-end mobile applications. They were in line with the consensus at € 147m (vs guidance at a q-o-q decrease of ...
- Geoffroy Michalet
Casino : Post-restructuring Q1 results, satisfactory sales, still very...
>Satisfactory sales but margins and FCF are too low - Casino reported Q1 sales of € 2.1bn, down 4.6% of which -3.8% LFL. The key standouts to us were the respectable performances of Monoprix (+0.7% LFL) and Franprix (+0.6% LFL). These figures were not so bad in light of Carrefour’s performance (+0.2% LFL for convenience brands this quarter). Stores under the Casino banner were down 2.4%, bringing the overall convenience brand performance to +0.1%.On the other han...
- Anis Zgaya
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
Befesa : Q1 in line and 2024 guidance slightly cautious
>Q1 results in line at EBITDA level - This morning, Befesa published its Q1 results, which were in line with consensus expectations. Thegroup's revenue was € 298m, down 7%. EBITDA was € 49m, -3% y-o-y and in line with the company-compiled consensus at € 48m and ODDO BHF and FactSet consensus at € 50m. Net profit came in at € 9.5m below the FactSet consensus forecast at € 14m, due to higher financial interests and higher depreciations than expected. The group's p...
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
BE Semiconductor Industries : Weak Q1 2024 orders and Q2 guidance poin...
>Q1 2024 results below expectations, with a disappointing order intake - BESI reported its Q1 2024 results which were below expectations, notably on the order intake. Revenues were € 146m, down 8% q-o-q and up 10% y-o-y, due primarily to lower shipments for high-performance computing and automotive end-user markets, partially offset by higher shipments for high-end mobile applications. They were in line with the consensus at € 147m (vs guidance at a q-o-q decrease of ...
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