reports
- Benjamin Schroeder
- Michiel Tukker
- Padhraic Garvey
- CFA
Rates Spark: The lost term premium to return
The term premium represents a compensation for being in long tenors. Currently there is virtually none. Back in October we had a 40bp term premium in the 10yr yield. A re-build towards that is the cleanest route to 5% for the 10yr yield. And even at that level, that's a mild term premium. Only a 0.2% on next week's PCE deflator can keep us from hitting these levels
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
Bank Brunch/Solid quarter from Nordea, Bankinter 4Q, Deposit Insurance...
Nordea earnings continue to benefit from deposit margins. Bankinter: support from high rates starts to fade. Committee on economic and monetary affairs to vote on European Deposit Insurance Scheme proposal today. Canadian EUR covered bonds more attractive
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
Bank Brunch/Solid quarter from Nordea, Bankinter 4Q, Deposit Insurance...
Nordea earnings continue to benefit from deposit margins. Bankinter: support from high rates starts to fade. Committee on economic and monetary affairs to vote on European Deposit Insurance Scheme proposal today. Canadian EUR covered bonds more attractive
- Roelof-Jan van den Akker
Technical Analysis/Bund future
We changed our stance from, ‘Selling the rallies' into ‘Buying on weakness' last Friday, but the weekly chart still shows that there is a job to be done. Last week closed slightly higher at 132.50, a rise of 34bp, although there was a lower high at 133.05 and low at 131.31 in relation to the week before., with prices still below the flattening EMA-40 line at 133.54. It is also not ruling out new lows below 131.31 within the bottoming process, although the downside is limited with solid horizont...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Azelis: Bloomberg report citing M&A interest. BE Semiconductor Industries: 1Q24 preview, focus on order intake. Greenyard: Crème de la Crème acquisition. Just Eat Takeaway.com: Deliveroo reports 1Q24 trading. Melexis: 1Q24 Preview, focus on pricing. NSI: Guidance confirmed, LTV improves, small but interesting investments might come. Sligro: 1Q24 results in line with expectations Vastned: Key €100m single asset disposal achieved
- David Szonyi
- Peter Virovacz
National Bank of Hungary Preview: Now is not the time to surprise mark...
The reducing local risk premium since the last meeting led us to believe that the pace of cuts could be maintained. However, the recent spate of unfavourable domestic and international developments justifies a more cautious approach from the NBH. We see a 50bp cut in April
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Prospects grow of joint Asian FX intervention
Amidst slightly calmer FX conditions, investor attention is drawn to an overnight press release from the Finance Ministers of Japan, Korea, and the US, where the Asian nations expressed their concerns over the recent depreciation of the yen and won. This raises the prospect of joint FX intervention between Japan and Korea should key levels be broken
- Inga Fechner
- Rico Luman
- Warren Patterson
- Inga Fechner
- Rico Luman
- Warren Patterson
- Benjamin Schroeder
- Michiel Tukker
- Padhraic Garvey
- CFA
Rates Spark: Differing degrees of decoupling
The US narrative is driving rates, but we see differing degrees of decoupling on the European side. While ECB pricing continues to be relativley firm, pricing for the BoE looks more aligned shifted Fed expectations. This week's UK data worked in that direction, but officials drawing a distinction between US and domestic inflation saw little reaction
- James Knightley
- Roelof-Jan van den Akker
Technical Analysis/Bund future
Work in progress in making a bottom: We changed our stance from, ‘Selling the rallies' into ‘Buying on weakness' last Friday, but the weekly chart still shows that there is a job to be done. Last week closed slightly higher at 132.50, a rise of 34bp, although there was a lower high at 133.05 and low at 131.31 in relation to the week before, with prices still below the flattening EMA-40 line at 133.54. It is also not ruling out new lows below 131.31 within the bottoming process, although the down...
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
- Muhammet Mercan
- Warren Patterson
Middle East escalation boosts oil supply risks
The oil market continues to be supported by ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The lack of price action following recent escalation has been surprising but suggests there already is a large risk premium priced into the market. Even so, there is still plenty of risk facing the market
- Muhammet Mercan
- Carsten Brzeski
- Francesco Pesole
A falling euro is not the ECB's biggest headache
Along with rising speculation of EUR/USD approaching parity, the old question of how the European Central Bank should react to exchange rate movements is returning. We think that the falling euro is not the ECB's biggest concern on the road to a June rate cut; other factors can lead to a further depreciation of the common currency
- Carsten Brzeski
- Francesco Pesole
A falling euro is not the ECB's biggest headache
Along with rising speculation of EUR/USD approaching parity, the old question of how the European Central Bank should react to exchange rate movements is returning. We think that the falling euro is not the ECB's biggest concern on the road to a June rate cut; other factors can lead to a further depreciation of the common currency
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