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ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf

Humming along

Outperforming sector peers operationally with solid net letting and project starts. Share trading at discount to peers; BUY, TP SEK 105.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Karl Bokvist

Ready for a return to growth

In-line earnings, strong FCF, growth in Q2, '24e-'26e EBITA up 2-4%; 10% CAGR '23-'26e, keep HOLD, TP SEK 170 (165)

ABGSC Financials Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Jan Erik Gjerland
  • Magnus Andersson
  • Patrik Brattelius

Buybacks to start in a month's time

Q1: Slower lending growth and tougher margins lower estimates in 2025e and 2026e, while 20% (from 23%) tax raises 2024e. Total yield 10-11% p.a. '24e-'26e as we await lending growth - HOLD.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Oscar Rönnkvist

Spoiled with beats

Decent across the board but slightly lower org. top line makes us lower our '24e organic growth assumptions by 2pp. Limited total revisions on better FX - keep BUY at 21x '25e EV/EBIT.

ABGSC Metals & Mining Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Metals & Mining Research
  • Adrian Gilani

Too harsh reaction to not so bad report

Q2e: reversal of delayed deliveries and better demand. Minor revisions, adj. EBIT lowered by 1-2%. Gradual improvements expected, keep BUY.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Haakon Amundsen

Rich in growth, quality and valuation

Still growing well into Q1e. Strong tailwinds in Defence, but within expectations. Strong growth into the end of the decade priced in - HOLD.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm

Full of surprises

Strong base orders, record-high DCT margins, 3% adj. EBITA beat, '24e-'26e adj. EBITA up 5-3%; 16% CAGR, keep HOLD, TP of SEK 210 (190)

ABGSC Financials Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Magnus Andersson
  • Patrik Brattelius

Valuation fair given decelerating growth

Transaction income saved the day in Q1'24. EPS raised 1-3% for 2024-26e. Flat earnings growth in H2'24e for 12m fwd P/E of 18x – HOLD.

ABGSC Renewable Energy Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Renewable Energy Research
  • Olof Cederholm

Slow start, but outlook should remain positive

Q1'24 report due on 25 April at 8.00 CET. Q1e: EBIT ~break-even, positive outlook on project sales to remain. Maintain BUY with TP of SEK 100.

ABGSC Financials Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Jan Erik Gjerland
  • Patrik Brattelius

Loan loss ratio moving in the right direction

Asset quality drives earnings beat in Q1. Adj. EPS up 2% given lower loan loss ratio assumptions. BUY reiterated, TP up to SEK 53 (52).

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Bengt Jonassen
  • Njål Kleiven

Not what we wanted, but 100 is the new 80

Weak report on most metrics. Large long-term potential. BUY, TP of NOK 135.

ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Fredrik Ivarsson

Further FX pain

We forecast Q1'24e org. growth +6%. Margin pressure due to adverse FX. Price adjustments to support '24e earnings: BUY.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm

Still a bit off form

4% adj. EBIT miss with no margin bounce from Q4. Adj. EBIT cut by 2-3%. Attractive sector, but at 26x , Epiroc needs to reaffirm its worth.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Fredrik Ivarsson

SELL built on high expectations

Despite cost cuts, EBITA is -19% y-o-y. Q2: positive LFL unlikely on tough opex comparable. We repeat SELL, more soft signals to come.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen

Steady production and exciting exploration

Minor, positive estimate changes post-Q1. Great value and exciting exploration in 2024. BUY, TP up to NOK 46 (45).

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Karl Bokvist
ABGSC Consumer Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Consumer Goods Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC Financials Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Magnus Andersson
  • Patrik Brattelius
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

ABGSC Shipping Daily 23 April

Tankers and LPG down, mixed dry bulk market. Shipping peer group trades at P/NAV 0.80x. BWLPG - Approval of listing on the NYSE. Global seaborne LPG export growth of 5% YTD in Q1; strong upside potential in spot rates

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