Work in progress in making a bottom: We changed our stance from, ‘Selling the rallies' into ‘Buying on weakness' last Friday, but the weekly chart still shows that there is a job to be done. Last week closed slightly higher at 132.50, a rise of 34bp, although there was a lower high at 133.05 and low at 131.31 in relation to the week before, with prices still below the flattening EMA-40 line at 133.54. It is also not ruling out new lows below 131.31 within the bottoming process, although the down...
The oil market continues to be supported by ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The lack of price action following recent escalation has been surprising but suggests there already is a large risk premium priced into the market. Even so, there is still plenty of risk facing the market
Along with rising speculation of EUR/USD approaching parity, the old question of how the European Central Bank should react to exchange rate movements is returning. We think that the falling euro is not the ECB's biggest concern on the road to a June rate cut; other factors can lead to a further depreciation of the common currency
Along with rising speculation of EUR/USD approaching parity, the old question of how the European Central Bank should react to exchange rate movements is returning. We think that the falling euro is not the ECB's biggest concern on the road to a June rate cut; other factors can lead to a further depreciation of the common currency
ASML: 1Q24 Results; weak orders but case intact. CM.com: Reasonable 1Q24 trading update, positive EBITDA surprise. Just Eat Takeaway.com: 1Q24 trading update - slowly creeping back to order growth. Staffing: Dutch period 3 - March volume and revenue seeing slight recovery in the trend. TomTom: 1Q24 results - touch weaker but no major surprises
Services inflation is proving stickier than the Bank of England had hoped and markets are now pricing the first rate cut in November. That seems extreme given recent dovish comments from Governor Bailey but we think the latest data reduces the chances of a rate cut in May or June and we continue to expect the first move in August.
Carry trades are being rapidly unwound as volatility starts to pick up again. The overbought Mexican peso and easing-affected Brazilian real remain in a vulnerable position. In China, conservative PBOC CNY fixing isn't adding fuel to the dollar rally this morning, although Powell's hawkish comments are keeping front-end yields supported
Sticky US inflation has prompted quite the sell-off in US rates and seen the dollar strengthen broadly. At the same time, central bankers outside of the US are expressing their policy independence and talking of summer rate cuts. It looks like policy divergence and higher FX volatility will be the story of the quarter. We are raising our dollar forecasts
B&S handed in a solid set of FY23 results; EBITDA arrived c.5% above our forecast. Net debt was lower than expected and B&S intends to pay shareholders a €0.16 dividend, a notch better than anticipated. We believe the governance issues have been addressed properly and the new management team is fully focussed on growing the business in a profitable way. We do expect excess cash generation after dividend payments, which initially will be used to increase the stake in TopBrands but will lead to a ...
Despite 45% performance in the last two months, we continue to view Fugro as attractive. Likely slower than last year's 28% but the company keeps growing revenue, supporting profitability on the back of strong execution, and continued high added value of its services. For FY24-26 we are optimistic that the company will deliver double digit growth. In our view €3-3.5bn revenues with an 11-15% EBIT margin range by FY27 does not seem too challenging. The tailwinds of relevant markets, such as offsh...
The weekly chart is trying to find support at the previous falling trend line around the 107 62/64 level in making a higher bottom above the October bottom around the 105 24/64 level. Prices are under pressure since the close below the EMA-40 line at 111 1/64 in the first half of March, with the sell-off in April. Given the series of lower highs in the weekly chart after making a top around the 117 level March/May last year, the downward pressure was to be expected. Prices closed off the lows...
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