reports
- James Knightley
Decent January for US jobs, but the sector concentration is a huge con...
The US added more jobs than expected in January, but sizeable downward revisions reveal that – outside of leisure & hospitality, private healthcare, and government – the economy has actually been consistently losing jobs. This suggests the risks remain tilted toward the Fed cutting rates more than the two reductions currently in our forecast
- Roelof-Jan van den Akker
Technical Analysis/US 10-year Treasury Note
We viewed the close below the horizontal support at 112 12/64 in the first half of January as the completion of a top formation, implying lower prices in the following weeks and months. Within this corrective phase, a decline toward the solid horizontal support around 109 29/64 appears to be the maximum downside risk, with intermediate support levels at 111 25/64 and 110 15/64. Prices held above the first horizontal support at 111 25/64, posting a January low at 111 18/64. Last week, the market ...
- Francesco Pesole
SEK Outlook 2026: Slower, more predictable appreciation
We see limited downside room in the next few months for EUR/SEK due to stretched valuation, but still expect a move to 10.30 by year-end on the back of Sweden's attractive growth/fiscal profile and no Riksbank cuts. USD/SEK should continue to have larger downside potential in line with our bearish USD view: we target a drop below 8.50 this year
- Paolo Pizzoli
- Roelof-Jan van den Akker
Technical Analysis/Bund future
Last week, the weekly chart formed an outside week: the high at 128.54 exceeded the previous week's high of 128.40, while the low at 127.56 dipped below the prior low of 127.65. The market closed 12bp higher at 128.24, finishing slightly below the weekly high of 128.54. This pattern may signal a bullish reversal, implying the potential for further upside if prices move above last week's high of 128.54, thereby confirming the recovery. For a more meaningful advance within the broader consolidatio...
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Alphabet, Telefonica, Gecina, WP Carey
Alphabet goes with CHF and GBP – but Reverse Yankee supply is still set to rise / Telefonica has agreed to sell Telefonica Chile / Gecina FY25: solid results, notes momentum continues to build in Paris prime offices / WP Carey 4Q25: beats consensus and increases 2026 guidance
- Katinka Jongkind
Dutch hospitality 2026: modest portions on the menu
The outlook for the Dutch hospitality industry for 2026 is cautiously positive, though significant challenges remain. Consumer spending in the sector is expected to rise in 2026, but still not exuberantly. Hospitality prices are projected to increase by around 4% this year
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
ABN Amro: Miss but strong capital, good set of results / Ahold Delhaize: Strong 4Q25 but no major surprise on FY26 adj. EPS guidance / Alfen: No recovery yet and another transitional year / BAM Group: Preview: 2026 outlook the key item / Econocom: Better REBITA, net debt, but EBIT below, much lower net profit, dividend halved, 2026-28 guidance postponed to “medium term” / Exor: Ferrari 4Q25 and 2026 guidance beat / Gecina: Results and guidance in line, DPS set to grow over 2026-30 / Heineken: No...
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Some payrolls disappointment is already priced in
Markets have pre-empted a softer payroll print relative to the consensus 65k, largely on the back of Kevin Hassett's warnings earlier this week. Our economist's call is 80k payrolls and unchanged 4.4% unemployment, which in our view would be enough to remove some negatives from the dollar. Still, the conditions for a sustainable USD recovery aren't there
- Michiel Tukker
Rates Spark: This time US rates can take the lead again
Worries about the US jobs market help global curves flatten again. Despite a softer US macro backdrop, equities remain strong. For stronger spillovers from the US to euro rates, we would need a broader risk-off move. We will therefore watch the US payrolls closely. Having said that, more Fed rate cuts may actually support the positive mood music in equities
- Ewa Manthey
- Warren Patterson
- Francesca Ferragina
- Michiel Vereycken
WDP/Deep dive into the 2030 plan/BUY
WDP's FY25 results were fully in line but the company surprised in already revealing its 2030 targets. We like such long-term visibility combined with very clear targets: €500m of yearly capex that can be auto-financed, delivering a +6% CAGR. WDP now has pan-European ambitions and aims to establish a presence in Italy and Spain. While the company has not delivered on its entrance into Germany, we think that opening itself to new countries is the right ambition to have at this stage. The plan loo...
- Lynn Song
China's CPI inflation slowed in January amid Lunar New Year effect
January CPI inflation slowed to 0.2% year-on-year as food prices fell sharply to -0.7% YoY due to Lunar New Year impacted base effects, and should flip in February. We expect CPI inflation is still on track to recover overall in 2026
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
European banks/Larger banks lead in the non-bank sector
The substantial growth in non-bank assets has outpaced that of bank assets globally. Larger European banks are very much involved in this sector. In addition to the growth potential, this involvement comes with potential risks should the sector see a more substantial weakening.
- Chris Turner
- David Havrlant
- Deepali Bhargava
- Dmitry Dolgin
- Francesco Pesole
- Lynn Song
- Mateusz Sutowicz
- Min Joo Kang
- Peter Virovacz
- Rafal Benecki
- Valentin Tataru
FX Talking: Dollar appetite erodes
Two central themes are driving FX markets. The first is rare optimism on global growth, which has seen the commodity bloc and the procyclical currencies of Europe and Asia outperforming. The second is the erosion of confidence in the dollar – or at least the risk of having all your eggs in one dollar-denominated basket. Expect the dollar to stay pressured
- Frantisek Taborsky
- Valentin Tataru
EM FX & Rates Trader/Notes from Romania roadshow in London
Our Romania roadshow in London highlighted broad client alignment with our constructive macro and market view. Fiscal consolidation is progressing better than expected and, with inflation set to fall sharply from mid-year, we see room for NBR rate cuts from May. Growth should remain weak but avoid recession. This supports our bullish stance on ROMGBs, especially the front end, given attractive carry, light positioning, and strong demand. Clients largely agreed but focused on political risk and t...
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
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