reports
- Benjamin Schroeder
- Michiel Tukker
- Padhraic Garvey
- CFA
Rates Spark: Upbeat sentiment helps yields higher
Positive risk sentiment is helping yields up and was reflected in solid demand for Greece's 30y bond sale. Euro rates will now focus on this week's US PCE reading as the impact is likely to spill over into the market pricing for 2024 European Central Bank cuts
- Roelof-Jan van den Akker
Technical Analysis/Corn
The weekly chart was bearish after prices broke below the upward sloping trend line around US$634.50/bu a year ago. This resulted in a Sell signal with a target of around US$360.00/bu. The close below the next solid horizontal support around US$501.00/bu August last year, confirmed the bearish view. Prices reached a low at US$394.50/bu in March, but not the target around US$360.00/bu.
- Benjamin Schroeder
- Padhraic Garvey
- CFA
Money Markets Update/Disentangling from the Fed
Euro key points: Surveys suggest markets see new structural operations already in 2025. Risk-off ended Schatz ASW tightening, Euribor/OIS widening looks more technical. ECB discount is resilient to the Fed, risks still suggest paying Dec 2024 implied rate.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
The race to profit from tech's AI revolution
In the following articles, we discuss the important role of supercomputers, proprietary data and the technology race to build the leading AI platform. We expect the ICT sector to show strong growth, which countries must embrace. Over time, prices for AI tools will come down
- Peter Virovacz
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
Bank Brunch/DNBNO preferred senior, Handelsbanken and SEB 4Q, Taxonomy...
DNBNO preferred senior not so expensive versus covered. Swedish banks' profitability hit by higher costs. Taxonomy disclosures: A slow start but a start nonetheless. SP Mortgage Bank is in the market with a 7yr covered bond. HCOB returns in preferred senior
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
Bank Brunch/DNBNO preferred senior, Handelsbanken and SEB 4Q, Taxonomy...
DNBNO preferred senior not so expensive versus covered. Swedish banks' profitability hit by higher costs. Taxonomy disclosures: A slow start but a start nonetheless. SP Mortgage Bank is in the market with a 7yr covered bond. HCOB returns in preferred senior
- Roelof-Jan van den Akker
Technical Analysis/Bund future
No signs of a bottom in the weekly chart with a lower high and low last week. Prices closed 146bp lower at 131.04 in combination with a new low within this year's corrective phase at 130.83. Nevertheless, we are still not bearish here and recommend our view to Buy on weakness in expecting the development of a higher bottom. The downside potential is limited from here with solid support coming in between the horizontal line around 130.70 and the former upper end of the falling trend channel aroun...
- Carsten Brzeski
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
ASM International: 1Q24 results - better on all fronts. Heineken: Uphill from here. KPN: 1Q24 in line, guidance slightly increased on Youfone acquisition. Melexis: 1Q24 results in line a relief. Universal Music Group: Spotify 1Q24 Results and guidance beat on margins. Vopak: Good progress to start the year. Wereldhave: 1Q24 LFL slows sharply
- Ewa Manthey
- Warren Patterson
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Survey divergence hits the dollar
The dollar is trading weaker on the back of the US-Europe PMI divergence. We'd be cautious about jumping into a bearish narrative on the back of soft activity surveys, as hard data (GDP and PCE are due this week) has generally helped the dollar of late. In Australia, higher-than-expected inflation has prompted a hawkish repricing and an AUD rally
- Benjamin Schroeder
- Michiel Tukker
- Padhraic Garvey
- CFA
Rates Spark: The stakes get raised
The return of risk-on opens further upside to yields, although US data on Tuesday was weak, and demand at the 2yr auction very strong. The eurozone PMIs paint a more upbeat growth picture and with rate cuts beyond June still uncertain, we may see increased focus on growth going forward. Still, there's a keen focus on the US PCE deflator due Friday
- Marc Hesselink
- CFA
- Thymen Rundberg
Barco/Clickshare uncertainty/HOLD
Barco reported a weak 1Q24 trading update. Although all business units are experiencing market weakness, the key uncertainty going forward is in ClickShare. Barco needs a strong recovery in 2H24 to reach its top-line and margin estimates. Given limited visibility we believe that is too uncertain and forecast that Barco will miss its FY24 revenue and margin target. We keep our Hold rating given the modest valuation at 10x EV/EBIT 2024F (30% discount to historical valuation), but we lower our targ...
- Min Joo Kang
- Nicky Mapa
- Rob Carnell
- Benjamin Schroeder
- Michiel Tukker
- Padhraic Garvey
- CFA
Rates Spark: The stakes get raised
The return of risk-on opens further upside to yields, although US data Tuesday was weak, and demand at the 2yr auction very strong. The eurozone PMIs paint a more upbeat growth picture and with rate cuts beyond June still uncertain, we may see increased focus on growth going forward. Still a keen focus on the US PCE deflator due Friday
- David Szonyi
- Peter Virovacz
- Coco Zhang
- James Knightley
North America Construction Outlook: Politics and policy rates test the...
After weathering the 2023 banking stresses and ongoing high interest rate environment, 2024 and beyond is likely to be more challenging. Financing conditions remain restrictive, and political uncertainty is on the rise with US and Mexican Presidential elections. High government deficits further limit the scope for support for the sector
- Coco Zhang
- James Knightley
North America Construction Outlook: Politics and policy rates test the...
After weathering the 2023 banking stresses and ongoing high interest rate environment, 2024 and beyond is likely to be more challenging. Financing conditions remain restrictive, and political uncertainty is on the rise with US and Mexican Presidential elections. High government deficits further limit the scope for support for the sector
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