reports
- Ewa Manthey
- Warren Patterson
- Lynn Song
- Nicky Mapa
- Rob Carnell
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
- Timothy Rahill
High Yield Vision/Focus on primary markets
• The European high yield (EHY) market had a flat performance in April, with a marginal negative return of -0.03%. During the month, the income return of +0.37% ended up compensating almost fully for some price weakness (price return of -0.40%). In April, the EHY market started with broadly positive momentum during the first ten days of the month, before experiencing a sharp drop around the middle of the period and then retracing the weakness partially during the second half of the month to fini...
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
- Timothy Rahill
High Yield Vision/Focus on primary markets
• The European high yield (EHY) market had a flat performance in April, with a marginal negative return of -0.03%. During the month, the income return of +0.37% ended up compensating almost fully for some price weakness (price return of -0.40%). In April, the EHY market started with broadly positive momentum during the first ten days of the month, before experiencing a sharp drop around the middle of the period and then retracing the weakness partially during the second half of the month to fini...
- Roelof-Jan van den Akker
Technical Analysis/Cocoa
The daily chart worsened significantly last week, violating our bullish view we communicated in the previous updates in combination with the bullish target for US$13,265/MT. This suggests that prices have topped within the accelerating move since the breakout above US$4,275/MT mid-January.
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
Bank Brunch/Strong numbers from UBS and UniCredit, CAFFIL 15yr covered...
UBS reports strong 1Q24 numbers, upcoming higher capital requirements a positive for the senior debt layer. Strong numbers from UniCredit, potential for a new AT1. CAFFIL in the market with a 15yr covered bond. Triple green in bail-in senior – zeroing in on green BYLAN vs vanilla C. Erste Group Bank and Banco Santander manage their AT1 layers. Bank bond performance
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
Bank Brunch/Strong numbers from UBS and UniCredit, CAFFIL 15yr covered...
UBS reports strong 1Q24 numbers, upcoming higher capital requirements a positive for the senior debt layer. Strong numbers from UniCredit, potential for a new AT1. CAFFIL in the market with a 15yr covered bond. Triple green in bail-in senior – zeroing in on green BYLAN vs vanilla C. Erste Group Bank and Banco Santander manage their AT1 layers. Bank bond performance
- Roelof-Jan van den Akker
Technical Analysis/Brent Oil
Within the previous update, the end of March, we mentioned the bullish break above the upper end of the falling trend channel in the weekly chart around the US$85.00/bbl level in the second half of March. This trend change improved the longer-term picture, as the corrective phase of the past two years has ended. This indicates a more sideways market between US$71.50/bbl and US$98.00/bbl in the weekly chart. There remains a bullish undertone as the completed falling wedge pattern in the daily cha...
- David Szonyi
- Peter Virovacz
- Warren Patterson
- Roelof-Jan van den Akker
Technical Analysis/Bund future
The month of April ended 335bp lower at 129.94, which is confirming this year's correction. This chart and timeframe is weak and needs to improve before we should see a bottom here. A rise and close above the April high at 133.10 is necessary to expect a bottom. On the other hand, the weekly chart is improving. Prices closed 80bp higher at 131.02 last week. This resulted in a higher low and high in relation to the week before, suggesting prices are bottoming here. Looking at the weekly chart, th...
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- ING Helpdesk
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Falling volatility restores interest in carry trade
Cross-market volatility is falling again. This looks largely down to Friday's benign US jobs release and a relatively quiet US data calendar this week. We see the dollar trading ranges but are looking for some independent moves in the Swedish krona and British pound at this week's rate meetings. And lower volatility will keep the carry trade in demand.
- Carsten Brzeski
- Benjamin Schroeder
- Michiel Tukker
- Padhraic Garvey
- CFA
Rates Spark: Eurozone growth recovery not to be ignored
US and euro rates opened the week lower, continuing the dovish sentiment from the week before. Markets are pricing in 75bp of ECB rate cuts for 2024 – our baseline forecast – but two cuts are also still on the table, and thus market pricing should be lower. A growth recovery, as also reflected by Monday's PMIs, reduces the need for a steep path of cuts
- Marc Hesselink
- CFA
- Thymen Rundberg
ASM International/GAAtting started/BUY
ASM has been a very strong performer over the past four years, with high adoption of its ALD and Epitaxy technology. We believe this run is far from over and expect very strong order momentum over the course of 2024, ahead of the start of 2nm volume production in 2025. We reiterate our BUY and increase our target price to €750 per share (from €650). ASM is on the ING Benelux Favourites list.
- Marc Hesselink
- CFA
- Reg Watson
- CFA
Allfunds Group Plc/Morefunds to come/BUY
Following Allfunds' first quarter results, we update our forecasts and valuation for Allfunds. A slower pace in the recovery of AuA leads us to reduce our revenue and earnings forecasts but the re-rating of the peer group leads us to maintain our 12-month target price of €7.30 and BUY recommendation.
- Nicky Mapa
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