reports
J Ganes Consulting Coffee Weekly 26th April 2018
The coffee market fundamentals aren’t bullish but the negative news would seem to be already in the price and a break from a this long sideways to lower slide would be to the upside rather than a further collapse. The thorn remaining in the markets side is that Brazilian farmers seem to have been reluctant to sell the big crop starting to be harvested. Rallies can hit a wall of selling as a result and it will take something significant to break through that.
J Ganes Consulting Softs Weekly 26th April 2018
My market views remain the same this week. Cocoa is overblown to the upside and there are some signals that fundamentals are shifting. Sugar and coffee are depressed but would think the worst of the news is already factored into the price. Cotton is mixed depending on mill fixations but it isn’t too late for farmers to plant more if prices go higher still. The FCOJ market seems to be turning up, but I don’t see the rally being extended.
J Ganes Consulting Softs Weekly 19th April 2018
The Softs continued in the same trend as before with the markets stretching to the upside and to the downside. For some of the markets, I still don’t see this lasting with fundamentals starting to shift before the market is catching on. Regards, Judy Ganes
J Ganes Consulting Coffee Weekly 19th April 2018
The Arabica market continued to slip on improving views of the Brazilian crop and weakness in the Brazilian real. The GCA stock report was friendly but overall supplies are still large. If you are in Seattle for the SCA Event, and want to locate me on the trade show floor, please send me a whatsapp message to arrange a convenient meeting point. Regards, Judy Ganes
J Ganes Consulting Coffee Weekly 12th April 2018
Monday’s USA stock report is one to be watched. Brazilian exports slowed in March, which was not unexpected. Harvesting of the next crop is underway already and so exports will soon pick-up again. Next week I will be in Seattle for SCA but will be publishing the weekly reports.
J Ganes Consulting Softs Weekly 5th April 2018
An escalation in tariffs between the USA and China threaten some key commodities and the markets will remain sensitive and erratic to the latest headlines. I continue to think the cocoa market overran to the upside and should sink back down. Attempts have found support so far but this base should erode. Sugar should hold the lows and so should coffee. OJ continues to suffer from poor demand.
J Ganes Consulting Coffee In-Depth Report March 2018
The coffee market continues to wobble at lower levels. My market view remains the same in that there isn’t enough cause yet for the market to sink sharply but at the same time, some potential issues have not caused the market to react given a continued steady flow of supplies. To keep an eye on is disease issues in a number of countries with Roya (rust) outbreaks being noted again with several hot spots of outbreaks that need to be kept under control. So far, it is not enough to jar the ma...
J Ganes Consulting Coffee Weekly 29th March 2018
The ICO released the February export data today rather than April 3 that was originally scheduled. Volumes are on par with a year ago. The market had been hoping for exports to trail off but instead they are higher this season. Indonesia and others are shipping more, offsetting the reductions elsewhere. The market will continue to wait for further confirmation on the size of the Brazilian harvest that is getting underway.
J Ganes Consulting Softs Weekly 29th March 2018
As the saying goes, March comes in like a lion and goes out as a lamb. I think the roar higher in cocoa and cotton should soon end while sugar is fishing for a bottom. It may not seem like it now, but coffee also shouldn’t tank. The FCOJ market is floundering around with the supply side seemingly poor but demand being even worse.
J Ganes Consulting Softs In-Depth Report Feb-Mar 2018
Hi, Attached is the Softs In-Depth Report. It includes a state by state breakdown of my views for cotton plantings with the USDA Prospective Plantings Report to be released Thursday. I think plantings will be better than what the National Cotton Council indicated last month due to the higher prices and forecasts for dry weather. Also please note in the Cocoa Supply and Demand balance I show the ICCO forecast but below my own views, which have actually not changed by much. I still show a...
J Ganes Consulting Softs Week March 22nd 2018
While there was certainly justification for cotton and cocoa to have been driven higher, I think the welcome wagon could pull out soon. The fundamentals are certainly not one sided. At the other side, I don’t see cause for coffee or sugar to keep sliding lower and lower. FCOJ can continue to erode.
J Ganes Consulting Coffee Weekly March 15th 2018
The coffee market drooped this week as the focus remained on prospects for bigger supplies out of Brazil and selling in advance of this, even though recently there has been a trimming in crop ideas. Brazilian export data showed slowed shipments, but not enough to make a difference. USA coffee stocks slipped again last month.
J Ganes Consulting Coffee Weekly March 8th 2018
The coffee market had a tough time keeping its head up after several rally attempts. I think this pretty much reflects the fundamentals, which continue to be one of decent nearby supplies but a few question marks. Brazilian crop views seem to be easing and that too should help to keep the market from sinking too far.
J Ganes Consulting Softs Weekly 8th March 2018
A somewhat volatile week for the Softs Complex with cotton and cocoa shooting up sharply while sugar and coffee lacked clear direction. While I had been positive on both cotton and cocoa, I think the moves are overdone, especially cocoa. Sugar and coffee should keep trying to establish a base. The FCOJ market is falling again on weak demand.
J Ganes Consulting Coffee Weekly March 1st 2018
While the coffee market is only a few cents off the recent lows and certainly one can’t call this a bull run my any stretch of the imagination, the fact remains that coffee held the lows under the $1.20 level and has been able to rally up even with stellar export volumes.
J Ganes Consulting Softs Weekly 1st March 2018
Sugar, coffee, and cocoa have been strutting their stuff lately with both sugar and coffee emerging from what looked like the abyss and cocoa extending it’s power drive higher. OJ is in reverse, having difficulty absorbing even a smaller crop while cotton is cooling off as export shipments are not where they should be.
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