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Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian

FlatexDEGIRO : 2022 guidance downgraded, 2022-2023e EPS revised down 2...

>2022 guidance downgraded, mainly due to a lower number of transactions per user than expected - During trading yesterday, FlatexDEGIRO downgraded its 2022 guidance, with: 1/ the number of transactions now forecast at between 75m and 85m (vs 95-115m previously and a consensus of 90m); 2/ 600 to 700k new users (vs 640-840k previously and a consensus of 601k). Average revenue per transaction is expected to be significantly above € 5 (vs € 4.59 in 2021). Forecast revenue...

Matthias Desmarais
  • Matthias Desmarais
Bruno Cavalier
  • Bruno Cavalier

Fed: inflation expectations vs recession expectations

Recession risks are on everyone's mind, but they have not yet taken precedence over inflation risks in the US monetary debate. For the Fed, pushing down inflation is the top priority at this stage. This calls for putting pressure on demand. In attempting to choose the lesser of two evils, the Fed prefers, without explicitly saying so, an economy in recession to inflation that persists in deviating ever further from its target. Medium-term inflation expectations, which are examine...

Damien Choplain ... (+2)
  • Damien Choplain
  • Martial Descoutures

UCB : A greater impact than anticipated

>Profit warning on 2022 - As announced following the acquisition of Zogenix at end-March, the group has adjusted down its guidance for 2022. However, this adjustment is far greater than anticipated.Indeed, the acquisition of Zogenix followed by its integration has resulted in a -2.5% dilution on the guidance for EBITDA. Fintelpa, approved in March, will only begin to have an accretive effect on EPS as of next year. This impact comes as no surprise and confirms th...

Carole Braudeau
  • Carole Braudeau

Credit Morning 06/24/2022

Zalando: A more severe profit warning than expected but the financial situation should remain very comfortable Biogroup: emblematic CEO and majority shareholder Stephane Eimer suddenly dies>...

Carole Braudeau
  • Carole Braudeau

Morning Crédit 24/06/2022

Zalando : Un profit warning plus sévère qu’attendu mais une situation financière qui restera très convenable Biogroup : décès brutal de Stéphane Eimer, le PDG emblématique du groupe>...

Nicolas David
  • Nicolas David

Indra Sistemas : The government turns the board on its head. What now?

>Five independent directors revoked at yesterday’s AGM - We expected tensions to be running high at the AGM and it did not disappoint. With a quorum of 74.5%, the shareholder block comprised of SEPI, SAPA and Amber, with c. 38% of outstanding voting rights, found itself (not by chance) with over 50% of the voting rights present. And they took advantage of the situation. Firstly, this allowed them to push through the resolution giving SAPA a seat on the board, despite ...

Damien Choplain ... (+2)
  • Damien Choplain
  • Martial Descoutures

UCB : Un impact plus important qu’anticipé

>Profit warning sur l’année 2022 - Comme annoncé post acquisition de Zogenix fin mars, la société a ajusté sa guidance 2022 à la baisse. Celle-ci est cependant bien plus forte qu’anticipé.En effet, l’acquisition suivie de l’intégration de Zogenix conduit à une dilution de -2.5% sur la guidance d’EBITDA. Fintelpa approuvé depuis mars ne sera accrétif sur les BPA qu’à partir de l’année prochaine. Cet impact n’est pas surprenant et confirme les premiers commentaires...

Thijs Berkelder
  • Thijs Berkelder

Boskalis : HAL offer at unchanged € 32 ps

>Boskalis to schedule EGM to discuss the financial aspects of the offer - HAL Trust this morning launches an all-cash public offer for all Boskalis shares at an offer price of € 32 per share, which is the previously mentioned € 32.5 per share minus the € 0.5 dividend paid by Boskalis. The acceptance Period runs from June 27 to September 2, 2022. Completion of the Offer is expected in Q3 of 2022.In aggregate, HAL and Stichting Hyacinth currently own approximately ...

Matthias Desmarais
  • Matthias Desmarais
Bruno Cavalier
  • Bruno Cavalier

Fed : anticipations d’inflation vs anticipations de récession

Les risques de récession sont dans toutes les têtes mais ils n’ont pas encore pris le pas sur les risques d’inflation dans le débat monétaire américain. Pour la Fed, faire baisser l’inflation est à ce stade la priorité absolue. Cela réclame de peser sur la demande. A choisir entre deux maux, la Fed préfère, sans le dire explicitement, une économie en récession qu’une inflation qui persiste à s’écarter toujours plus de sa cible. Les anticipations d’inflation à moyen terme dont on ...

Damien Choplain ... (+2)
  • Damien Choplain
  • Martial Descoutures

Valneva : Positive opinion from the CHMP for VLA2001

>An alternative eagerly awaited by Europeans... - Valneva announced yesterday during trading that the EMA’s Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) has recommended market approval for VLA2001 (Covid-19 vaccine) for use as a primary vaccination in adults between 18-55 years. The CHMP therefore concluded that the clinical results were “solid and met the European Union's efficacy, safety and quality criteria”. To recap, the level of neutralising antibodies ...

Nicolas David ... (+2)
  • Nicolas David
  • Nicolas Thorez

ODDO : Accenture sees no signs of a slowdown for the time being

>Growth of +27% cc in Q3. Acceleration in the underlying trend - Yesterday, before the opening of the US market, Accenture published Q3 results (quarter to end-May) which were excellent once again, notably with y-o-y growth of 27% at constant currency (cc), beating the guidance (growth of 22% to 26% y-o-y cc) and forecasts (c. +25% y-o-y cc). This implies organic growth of c.+22%, representing a slight slowdown vs Q2 (23% y-o-y org.) due to a more demanding comparison...

Nicolas David
  • Nicolas David

Indra Sistemas : Le gouvernement renverse le Conseil d’Administration....

>Révocation de 5 administrateurs indépendants suite à l’AG d’hier - Nous attendions une AG sous haute tension et nous n’avons pas été déçus. Avec un quorum à 74.5%, le bloc actionnarial constitué du SEPI, de SAPA et de Amber, détenant c. 38% des droits de vote en circulation, s’est retrouvé (sans aucun hasard) avec plus de 50% des droits de vote présents. Et ils en ont profité. Tout d’abord, cela leur a permis de faire passer la résolution octroyant à SAPA un membre a...

Michael B. Schäfer
  • Michael B. Schäfer

Covestro AG : Q2 at/above upper end of guidance keeps FY on track; 25%...

>Q2 at/above upper end of EBITDA guidance on lower "Shanghai" outage effect, 9% above consensus - We joined a sell side lunch of Covestro with its CEO Steilemann. Reopening of the Shanghai region, the single largest regional production footprint of Covestro with c. 25% of capacity in key products, limited the related closure burden to around 50% or € 125m of the envisaged € 250m burden announced in early May alongside Covestro's € 500m profit warning. Management indic...

Jean Danjou
  • Jean Danjou

Moncler : Still in good shape despite China

>Short-term outlook: a pretty confident message that is in line with that given at the CMD on 5 May - Confirmation of strong demand in Q2 in Europe, in the US and for Asia in South Korea, and to a lesser extent in Japan, no perceptible effect at this stage from the overall cooling-down of macroeconomic conditions. As also pointed out by the other major luxury good brands, Europe stands out this quarter thanks to a combination of still healthy local demand and the res...

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