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Matthias Desmarais
  • Matthias Desmarais
Aurelien Sivignon
  • Aurelien Sivignon

Balyo : Losses deepen in H1 and double bad news on order commitments f...

>EBIT sharply deteriorated in H1 - Balyo’s H1 results fell short of our estimates. For sales already published down 14% at € 8.3m, the gross margin fell 30% y-o-y, reflecting a gross margin rate of 35% (vs 43% in H1 2021 and vs 38% est.), which can be explained by a decline in volumes on the one hand and a more favourable product mix last year on the other.Growth in Opex (+32% y-o-y) is significantly stronger than we had anticipated and is due mainly to efforts t...

Carole Braudeau
  • Carole Braudeau

Credit Morning 09/30/2022

Casino: new buybacks of Quatrim 2024 debt in the marketAtos rejects an indicative offer for Evidian at an EV of € 4.2bn>...

Aurelien Sivignon
  • Aurelien Sivignon

Balyo : Les pertes se creusent au S1 et une double mauvaise nouvelle s...

>L’EBIT s’est sensiblement dégradé au premier semestre - Les résultats S1 de Balyo ressortent en dessous de nos attentes. Pour un CA déjà publié en baisse de 14% à 8.3 M€, la marge brute diminue de 30% y-o-y ce qui traduit un taux de marge brute de 35% (contre 43% au S1 2021 et vs 38%e) qui s’explique d’une part par la baisse des volumes mais aussi par un mix-produits plus favorable l’année dernière.La progression des Opex (+32% y-o-y) est sensiblement plus fort...

Nicolas Thorez
  • Nicolas Thorez

Alan Allman Associates : Solid H1 results – Aggressive trajectory out ...

>Profitability stabilised in a challenging context (hyper-growth) - AAA reported very satisfactory H1 2022 results that beat our estimates. For sales (already published) of € 155.5m, up 88% with ~20% organic growth by our calculations, operating income from activities (equivalent to EBITDA) came to € 15.8m (vs ODDO BHF € 15.1m). The margin therefore amounted to 10.2%, virtually stable y-o-y (-10bp). This was a decent performance give the growth reported in a context w...

Christophe Chaput
  • Christophe Chaput

Trigano : Reassuring order book paving the way for further growth in 2...

>Feedback from Paris Air Show - During a meeting with the group at the Paris Air Show, we reviewed the outlook for 2022 and 2023. We would note in particular:For the full year, 2022 sales rose by 8.3% to € 3,177.2m, virtually stable on a like-for-like basis (-0.1%). For motor homes (70% of consolidated sales), sales rose by 3.7% with a like-for-like decline of 5.3% including a 9% price effect, while volumes fell by 14%. Over the period, the group said it suffered...

Carole Braudeau
  • Carole Braudeau

Morning Crédit 30/09/2022

Casino : nouveaux rachats de dettes Quatrim 2024 sur le marchéAtos repousse une offre indicative de rachat d’Evidian pour 4,2 mds EUR>...

Pierre Tegner
  • Pierre Tegner

Pernod Ricard : Q1 should be better than expected. 12-mth fwd PER rema...

>Outperform maintained - Outperform rating maintained with a target price of € 217. The share's outperformance over three months (+2% vs a panel of 36 Food Spirits HPC stocks in Europe and the US at -5%) has led to an outperformance YTD. We are well aware that the focal point of 2009 PER multiples in a context of a break in the consumption trend (and higher interest rates) is a risk factor that is gaining traction with investors. As such, the 12-mth fwd PER of 19x may...

Damien Choplain ... (+2)
  • Damien Choplain
  • Martial Descoutures

Valneva : Highly successful capital increase, but strong dilution

>€ 100m raised at a discount of c.4% - Valneva has undertaken a capital increase of € 103m ($ 100m), largely exceeding the initially planned $ 40m. The deal comprised an offer of 375,000 ADS (with each ADS representing two ordinary shares) and a private placement of 20,250,000 of ordinary shares. All told, the 21m shares issued lead to dilution of c.18% of the capital. The subscription price was set at € 4.9 ($ 9.51/ADS), i.e. a limited discount of 3.9% vs the last cl...

Damien Choplain ... (+2)
  • Damien Choplain
  • Martial Descoutures

Valneva : Franc succès de l’augmentation de capital, mais forte diluti...

>Levée de 100 M€ assortie d’une décote de c. 4% - Valneva a réalisé une augmentation de capital de 103 M€ (100 M$), dépassant largement la taille de 40 M$ initialement prévue. L’opération est composée d’une offre de 375 000 ADS (chaque ADS représente 2 actions ordinaires) et d’un placement privé de 20 250 000 actions ordinaires. Au total, les 21 m d’actions émises induisent une dilution de c.18% du capital. Le prix de souscription a été fixé à 4.9 € (9.51 $/ADS), soit...

Hana Maalej ... (+2)
  • Hana Maalej
  • Jeremy Garnier

Carbios : H1 results impacted by the ramp-up in spending to support th...

>Sharp increase in capex causing operating loss to deepen – Balance sheet is robust with cash visibility >12 months - Carbios reported this morning H1 2022 results (integrating the consolidation of Carbiolice as of 4 June 2021), impacted by the ramp-up in spending to support the rollout of technology. For sales (factoring in at this stage feasibility studies, tests, research, deliveries of raw materials and Masterbatch samples) down 67% to € 9k, the adjusted operating...

Bruno Cavalier
  • Bruno Cavalier

Update on US public finances

As the pandemic episode comes to a close, the economic policies adopted during the crisis are being dropped. On the monetary front, the policy shift by the Fed has been under way for six months now and it continues to gather momentum. On the fiscal side, Covid-related spending has stopped, and the federal budget deficit is now even lower than in 2019. However, US federal debt is higher by 20 points of GDP and tax revenue is unlikely to remain as brisk as in recent months since GD...

Jean-François Granjon
  • Jean-François Granjon

Quadient : Good vehicle to tackle a deteriorating macroeconomic situat...

>Buoyant growth in new business - Beyond the interim results, which do not reflect FY expectations, we would note the strong momentum lifting the new business. In the software unit (ICA, +4.7% organic growth in H1), in addition to two major contracts signed in North America (>€ 1m each), the group confirmed strong revenue growth tied to subscriptions (+16.9% in H1, 74% of ICA revenues). The business benefited from cross-selling with the historical MRS business, ICA's ...

Aurelien Sivignon
  • Aurelien Sivignon

Xilam : H1 results in line. Outperform rating confirmed

>A more “normative” EBIT margin in H1 2022 - Xilam reported its H1 results yesterday evening, which came in close to our forecasts. key takeaways:Revenue and other income came to € 17.6m (+31% y-o-y). Revenues were therefore € 1.6m higher than those reported in July, the difference being due to a subsidy.Underlying operating profit came to € 4.8m, i.e. a margin of 27.2% (vs 27%e). The underlying operating margin fell 270bp y-o-y but returned to a more normat...

Bruno Cavalier
  • Bruno Cavalier

Un point sur les finances publiques US

L’épisode pandémique se referme et les politiques économiques adoptées durant la crise sont abandonnées. Sur le front monétaire, le virage de la Fed est amorcé depuis six mois et va en s’amplifiant. Sur le front budgétaire, les dépenses-Covid ont cessé et le déficit fédéral est même plus bas qu’en 2019. En revanche, la dette fédérale US est plus haute de 20 points de PIB et les rentrées fiscales ne sauraient rester aussi vives que ces derniers mois dans un contexte d’affaiblissem...

Pierre Tegner
  • Pierre Tegner

Pernod Ricard : Un T1 qui devrait être meilleur que prévu. Un PE 12mfw...

>Surperformance maintenue - Surperformance maintenue avec un OC de 217 €. La surperformance du titre sur 3 M (+2% vs panel de 36 valeurs de Food Spirits HPC en Europe et aux USA à -5%) a désormais permis de passer en surperformance en YTD. Nous avons bien conscience que le point de mire des multiples de PE de 2009 dans un contexte de cassure de la consommation (et de hausse des taux) est un facteur de risque qui prend de l’ampleur chez les investisseurs. Ainsi, le PE ...

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