reports
- Bruno Cavalier
Hello, is this the IMF? France calling...
France’s fiscal position is now the most parlous of any country in the eurozone. Not only is government debt high, but for more worrying for its long-term sustainability, primary expenditure (i.e., excluding interest charges) is not covered by tax revenues. This has been the situation for the past 23 years. No other country can claim such complacency from the markets, which is why other governments are at least trying to balance their primary budgets. The political situation is e...
- Bruno Cavalier
Allo, le FMI ? Ici la France…
La France est désormais dans la pire situation budgétaire de tous les pays de la zone euro. Non seulement la dette publique est élevée, mais plus grave pour sa soutenabilité à long terme, les dépenses primaires (hors charges d’intérêt) ne sont pas couvertes par les recettes fiscales. Cela fait 23 ans que cela dure. Aucun autre pays ne peut se prévaloir d’une telle complaisance des marchés, ce pourquoi d’ailleurs les autres gouvernements s’efforcent au moins d’équilibrer leur budg...
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
- Eya Drira
- Geoffroy Michalet
SGS : A credible CMD but with no major revelations
>A very marked focus on North America and near-shoring in Asia... - At the CMD, the group issued an update on its performance by region and reiterated its growth ambitions, notably in North America (c.10% of sales), driven by bolt-on acquisitions in environmental tests and connectivity, followed by pharma and cosmetics. In ASIA-Pacific (34% of sales), the group confirmed that it was maintaining strong momentum in China, a key market. The group is capitalising on an ad...
- Andreas Riemann
CTS Eventim AG & Co. KGaA : Q3 earnings: top line above, profits below...
>Double-digit top line growth in Q3, but sharp decline in EBITDA - In Q3 2024, revenue increased 13% y-o-y to € 825m (consensus: € 765m, ODDO BHFe: € 763m) 8% above the consensus despite a very tough base. The Ticketing business was up 19% and Live Entertainment sales grew 11%. Adjusted EBITDA decreased 30% y-o-y to € 121m (consensus: € 144m, ODDO BHFe: € 143m), 16% below consensus. Last year’s payment from autoticket (€ 38m) inflated adjusted EBITDA in Q3 2023. Bu...
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
- Carole Braudeau
- Emmanuel Matot
- Eya Drira
- Geoffroy Michalet
SGS : CMD crédible mais sans révélations majeures
>Un focus très prononcé sur l’Amérique du Nord et le near shoring en Asie … - Lors du CMD, le groupe est revenu sur sa performance par région et réaffirmé ses ambitions de croissance, notamment en Amérique du Nord (c. 10 % du CA) portée par des acquisitions bolt-on dans les tests environnementaux et la connectivité, suivis de la pharma et des cosmétiques. En Asie-Pacifique (34 % du CA), le groupe confirme maintenir une bonne dynamique en Chine, un marché clé. Le group...
- Carole Braudeau
- Pierre Tegner
Unilever PLC : Ice cream IPO more likely according to the FT
>According to a FT article, an IPO is the most likely exit option - According to the Financial Times, Unilever has put an end to discussions with private equity funds on the disposal of the ice cream business. The plan is still an exit by the end of 2025 and a spin-off through an IPO is reportedly the most likely option. Last but not least, the FT article says that a € 10bn to € 15bn valuation for this business remains a credible range according to people close to th...
- Emmanuel Matot
- Pierre Tegner
Unilever PLC : Ice cream IPO more likely according to the FT
>According to a FT article, an IPO is the most likely exit option - According to the Financial Times, Unilever has put an end to discussions with private equity funds on the disposal of the ice cream business. The plan is still an exit by the end of 2025 and a spin-off through an IPO is reportedly the most likely option. Last but not least, the FT article says that a € 10bn to € 15bn valuation for this business remains a credible range according to people close to th...
- Baptiste Lebacq
Technip Energies : Reassuring initial indications for the CMD
>Outperform, target price € 27 - The group is due to hold its first CMD since the spin-off this afternoon. We reiterate our Outperform rating and our target price of € 27 (peer comparison). We push Technip Energies given: 1/ its positioning on LNG businesses (forthcoming acceleration in contract awards); 2/ its position on transition energies (biofuels, carbon capture and storage, etc.); 3/ its very robust balance sheet that will facilitate external-growth transactio...
- Baptiste Lebacq
Technip Energies : Premières indications rassurantes pour le CMD
>Opinion Surperformance, OC 27 € - Le groupe va tenir son premier CMD depuis le spin off cette après-midi. Nous réitérons notre recommandation Surperformance ainsi que notre OC de 27 € (méthode des comparables). Nous mettons en avant Technip Energies compte tenu de : 1/ son positionnement sur les métiers du GNL (accélération à venir du côté des attributions de contrats), 2/ son positionnement sur les énergies de transition (biocarburant, css carbon capture storage….)...
- Emmanuel Matot
Soitec : No profit warning at the H1 2024-25 release
>Revenues and EBITDA down by around -15% in H1 as expected - Soitec yesterday evening reported its half-year results (April-September 2024). Key takeaways:Revenues in line with expectations (-15% organic with -9% in Q2 – disappointments on mobile communication and automotive/industry offset by strong growth for edge/cloud AI).EBITDA margin showing a slight improvement (+40bp vs consensus = -10bp), underscoring effective management of the marked decline in bu...
- Michael B. Schäfer
Symrise : CMD feedback - Evolutionary strategy update, slightly raised...
>Evolutionary strategy update, no dedicated efficiency programme beyond 2024 - Symrise hosted a CMD 7 months after Jean-Yves Parisot took over as CEO, providing a rather evolutionary strategy update compared to the CMD in October 2023 where 'growth' remains the key driver of the new 'One Symrise Strategy'. However, leveraging its global scale by implementing best practices across segments and active portfolio management (both ways) doubled its weight (40% vs 20%) in t...
- Aurelien Sivignon
- Yan Derocles
Exosens : Road show feedback: very satisfactory visibility for 2025 wh...
>Main takeaways - This week we organised a virtual road show for Nordic investors with Exosens’ management (CEO, CFO and IR). Key takeaways:1/ Confidence in the achievement of full year targets: management confirmed the continuation of positive momentum in Q4 despite a more challenging comparison base. Growth in Q4 y-o-y, even limited, would in our view signify that the group is doing better than its full-year guidance for growth of +30% y-o-y (ODDO BHF est. in ...
- Joan Sehim
OPmobility : OPM stands out in an ailing industry
In a troubled automotive industry, OPmobility (OPM) stands out for its strong outperformance, market share gains and a speech that is more reassuring than its peers. As evidenced by the recent Q3 results, OPM is currently benefiting from record orders, particularly in the USA, and still has several medium-term growth drivers (Tesla, lighting, hydrogen). Although profitability is limited, and a number of structural weaknesses remain (including low exposure in China), OPM nonethele...
- Joan Sehim
OPmobility : OPM se distingue dans une industrie en difficulté
Dans une industrie automobile en difficulté, OPmobility (OPM) se distingue par une surperformance élevée, des gains de part de marché et un discours qui se veut plus rassurant que ses pairs. Comme l’atteste le récent T3, OPM profite aujourd’hui des commandes records passées, particulièrement aux USA, et dispose toujours de plusieurs leviers de croissance à moyen—terme (Tesla, éclairage, hydrogène). La profitabilité est certes limitée, et quelques faiblesses structurelles perduren...
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