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Olfa Taamallah ... (+2)
  • Olfa Taamallah
  • Yan Derocles

Airbus Group : Le manque d’ambition de la guidance à court terme ne do...

>Objectifs financiers tenus sur 2022 - Sur 2022, nous pensons qu’Airbus atteindra son objectif d’EBIT ajusté et dépassera légèrement ses attentes de FCF. Nous modélisons un EBIT ajusté de 5 510 M€ (Cons VA 5404.6 M€) pour un CA de 57.7 Md€, soit une marge de 9.5%. Airbus Commercial sera le principal driver avec un EBIT de 4 335 M€, dont 1 461 M€ (+45%) sur le seul T4 grâce à un effet volume/mix (39 appareils supplémentaires dont 38 A320neo) et une meilleure absorption...

Matthias Desmarais
  • Matthias Desmarais
Haythem BOHLI ... (+2)
  • Haythem BOHLI
  • Maxime Kogge

Aurubis : Q1 2022-23 preview: nearly all lights on green, could a guid...

>Nearly all lights on green in a very dynamic copper market - At the start of the year, nearly all the lights are on green, reflecting an extremely robust copper market. On 1 January, Aurubis increased the cathode premia billed to European customers by 85% to $ 228/t while the benchmark on TC/RCs for concentrate rose 37% to 88.8 per t/8.8 per lb. We note, nonetheless, that TC/RC spot prices have fallen by 13% in Asia from their October peaks to $ 76.5/t and $ 7.65/lb ...

Anis Zgaya ... (+3)
  • Anis Zgaya
  • Louis Boujard
  • CFA

La Française de l'Energie : Publication de CA T2/S1 sans grandes surpr...

>CA T2/S1 bénéficiant comme attendu de la hausse des volumes et des prix - FDE a publié hier soir son CA S1 22/23 (à fin décembre 2022) qui est ressorti à 20.8 M€ en croissance de 129% légèrement en dessous de nos attentes (22 M€). Le CA T2 ressort à 11,1 M€ en croissance de 79%. Comme prévu Le CA S1 de FDE a été porté par : 1/ des effets volumes grâce à la contribution de 5 nouvelles cogénérations dont 3 à Anderlues en Belgique mis en services en janvier 2022 et 2 à...

Robert Jan Vos
  • Robert Jan Vos

Sligro Food Group N.V. : Investment case still compelling, but cautiou...

>2022 results release and update on Metro deal set for 2 February - Sligro already reported its Q4 2022 sales on 4 January, and the group’s full-year 2022 results and Metro update are set for 2 February (07:30). Sligro will host an analyst meeting in Amsterdam that same day (13:30). Our 2022 forecasts are ahead of consensus, and we see some downside risks, for example, because of potential advisory costs incurred in 2022 related to the Metro deal that was closed early...

Anthony Dick ... (+2)
  • Anthony Dick
  • Michael Foundoukidis

Volvo AB : Les questions demeurent…

>EBIT ajusté T4 légèrement inférieur mais une marge nettement en deçà - Volvo a publié ses résultats T4 hier matin (first take ici) qui sont ressortis meilleurs que prévu sur le CA (+11% vs consensus Infront), légèrement en deçà sur l’EBIT ajusté (-3% vs css avec une marge de 9,1% vs 10,3% attendus), et inférieurs aux attentes sur le RNpdg (-26% vs css, notamment impacté par une provision de 630 MSEK liée à l’affaire antitrust de 2016 et des effets de réévaluation d’...

Bruno Cavalier
  • Bruno Cavalier

The balance of risks ahead of the next FOMC meeting

At the beginning of 2023, US economic data remains mixed and can support the case either of a soft landing scenario (employment, consumption) or of a recession scenario (yield curve, real estate). Since the Fed began tightening its monetary policy a year ago, neither of the two scenarios has really taken hold and the debate is still ongoing. The US economy has unquestionably proven to be more resilient than expected. Now, with inflation falling, the end of the tightening cycle se...

Haythem BOHLI ... (+2)
  • Haythem BOHLI
  • Maxime Kogge

Aurubis : Preview T1 : quasiment tous les voyants sont au vert, vers u...

>Quasiment tous les voyants au vert dans un marché du cuivre très porteur - En ce début d’année, quasi tous les voyants sont au vert, reflétant un marché du cuivre extrêmement porteur. Rappelons qu’Aurubis a augmenté, le 1er janvier, les primes de cathodes facturées aux clients européens de 85% à 228 $/t et que le benchmark chinois des TC/RC sur le concentré s’est inscrit en hausse de 37% à 88,8 $/t et 8,8 $/lb. Notons néanmoins que les prix spots des TC/RC sont en ba...

Jeremy Garnier
  • Jeremy Garnier

Manutan International : Start of takeover offer: we recommend tenderin...

>Simplified takeover bid open from 26 January to 8 February - At end-October 2022, the Guichard family (including Jean-Pierre Guichard, Claudine Guichard, Xavier Guichard and their family holding company) announced its aim to launch a simplified takeover bid for Manutan International with a view to a future delisting of the group after 37 years on the stockmarket. The operation targets all of the Manutan International shares not owned by the Guichard family (re...

Pierre Tegner
  • Pierre Tegner

Remy Cointreau : Q3 sales in line with Cognac at -11% l-f-l

>P/E >30x - Underperform maintained with a target price of € 105. We maintain a relatively positive view on the management and the long-term strategy (valuation of the cognac portfolio and diversification in super premium spirits). Whilst Rémy Cointreau is historically a stock which presents a high valuation, P/E >30x for the coming year continues to fuel our caution on the stock. Q3 sales were in line with our forecasts and the anticipations announced by managem...

Jeremy Garnier
  • Jeremy Garnier

Roche Bobois : A record year in 2022 – good embedded growth for 2023

>Record 2022 sales of € 408.5m (vs € 400me) up 22.3% yoy (+17.4% lfl) - Last night Roche Bobois reported Q4 sales up 11.7% (+7.3% lfl) to € 102.3m, ahead of our € 94.3m estimate. FY 2022 sales were up 22.3% (+17.4% lfl) to € 408.5m, higher than the group’s guidance for € 385m and our € 400me estimate. The group’s overall sales volume (directly operated stores plus franchises) remained at a very high level of € 652.5m (+2% yoy) of which € 364.7m for directly operated s...

Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+2)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri

STMicroelectronics N.V. : An excellent 2023 in sight despite comments ...

>Excellent results almost spoiled by comments about personal electronics, but we reiterate our Outperform opinion - STM reported better-than-expected Q4 2022 results yesterday, as well as issuing Q1 and 2023 guidance well above consensus forecasts. The market welcomed these results. However, questions emerged during the conference call about management’s comments regarding the future mix, with an expected drop in sales (but an improvement in margins) in personal elect...

Nicolas David
  • Nicolas David

SAP : SAP is facing high expectations

>A broadly solid set of Q4 results - SAP released its Q4 results on Thursday morning and they came out broadly in line with forecasts at constant currencies. On the top line, the resilience of the Support segment (-1% cc) and a rebound in Services revenues (+10% cc) helped to offset a little weakness in Cloud revenue growth (+22% cc, i.e. 22.6% organic, which is slightly below the 23.7% organic growth achieved in Q3). The current Cloud backlog is also on the weak sid...

Louis Boujard ... (+3)
  • Louis Boujard
  • CFA
  • Philippe Ourpatian

EDP : Exceptional impairment of thermal assets in Brazil

>The facts at EDP do Brazil - Energias do Brasil (EDP Brasil), a 57.55% owned subsidiary of Energias de Portugal (EDP), has announced that its Brazilian subsidiary Pecém Geração de Energia (Pecém) is to record an impairment loss of € 230m (with no cash impact) in its 2022 accounts. Pecém is a 720 MW coal-fired power plant in the state of Ceará with an operating licence until January 2044, which contributes to the security of supply of the Brazilian electricity system....

Anis Zgaya ... (+3)
  • Anis Zgaya
  • Louis Boujard
  • CFA

La Française de l'Energie : No major surprises from the Q2/H1 revenue ...

>Q2/H1 revenue boosted by higher volumes and prices, as expected - FDE released its revenue figures for H1 22/23 (ended December 2022) yesterday evening, with revenue growing by 129% to € 20.8m and therefore just missing our forecast (€ 22m). Q2 revenue amounted to € 11.1m, up 79%. As expected, FDE’s H1 revenue was driven by: 1/ volume effects thanks to the contribution of 5 new cogeneration units, including 3 in Anderlues (Belgium) that came on stream in January 202...

Pierre Tegner
  • Pierre Tegner

Danone : Another step towards refocusing the portfolio

>An encouraging signal at a time of near capitulation - Outperform rating maintained (target price € 64). Trading on a 2023e P/E

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