We expect a minimum return of 25% (unlevered, in dollar terms) from Long Bonds by year-end 2018. High yield credit seems to be priced for perfection and investors seeking an expression for higher rates would do well to fade junk.
We should discover quickly the limited efficacy of Donald Trump’s economic initiatives. We expect central bank administered hyperinflation to begin during his term.​
Wall Street has checked out. Investors looking to match nominal liabilities should succeed as long as central banks retain control over markets. Those that care about true wealth creation will be left holding the bag in real terms. ​