reports
Agriculture Ukraine Agriculture Sector Monthly
Ukraine agriculture updateLand market. According to Interfax.com.ua Ukrainian Parliament will resume proceeding on land market reform (2178-10 draft) on 18 February 2020, as still has to proceed on submitted amendments (in total over 4k amendments to few pages long draft were submitted). Current version of the draft includes changes proposed in December, namely limit on land concentration at 10k hectares and ban on land ownership for foreigners and foreign controlled entities unless it is change...
Polish Video Game Developers 4Q19E result previews
Overall we expect strong 4Q19E results in CD Projekt, while rather solid performance in PlayWay, Ten Square Games and 11 bit studios. We think especially CD Projekt’s 4Q19E results may stand out and bring positive surprise, as we suspect the consensus currently underestimates potential 4Q19E W3 sales (driven by Netflix’s TV series and launch on Nintendo Switch).
Benefit Systems 4Q19 Results Preview
Benefit Systems reports its 4Q19 results on 1 April 2020. Below please find key highlights:Card segment: Benefit has already reported that at the end of 4Q19 on Polish market it had 1,046.5k fitness cards distributed to its clients ( +127.0k y/y; +14.4k q/q). We assume that average revenue per card slightly increased (+1.0% y/y) - similarly to what we observed in 9M19. As a consequence, we arrive at revenues of PLN 256.9m, +15.8% y/y.
LPP 4Q19/20 preliminary results review
LPP published its 4Q19/20 preliminary results (4 months) with revenues of PLN 3,495m (in line with our estimates) and EBIT of PLN 412m (in line with our estimates). The company is due to publish its full 2019/20 results on 29 April 2020. Below please find key takeaways:
Polish Telecoms Government proposes drastic change in 5G auction rules
We consider Minister’s comment negatively, as it may potentially cause drastic change in Polish 3.48-3.80GHz band distribution, if indeed such changes are implemented, and more importantly operators (Orange Polska, Cyfrowy Polsat, Play Communications and T-Mobile Polska) decide eventually to act on new possibility.
Amrest Holdings SE 4Q19 Preliminary sales review
Opinion: Positive. Amrest reported 4Q19 sales, which came 3.3% above our expectations mostly due to higher than expected sales in CEE region. We underestimated number of openings (199 reported vs 150 assumed by us), which also left its mark on higher top-line growth.
PL Food Retailers 4Q19 Previews
Jeronimo Martins. Following positive preliminary sales data for 4Q19, we raise our expectations for FY2019 EBITDA to EUR 1053 (vs. EUR 1047 previously) driven mainly by better performance in Colombia. In 4Q19, JMT posted 9.6% sales growth y/y driven mainly by Ara (+40.0% y/y with LfL sales of 27.9%), Hebe (+23.4% with LfL at 6%) and Biedronka (+10.6% y/y with LfL at 7.7%).
Polish Residential Developers 4Q19E result previews
The number of units delivered was in line with our FY19 expectations, while the number of pre-sales was 21% above our estimates (582 units in 4Q19, +86% y/y on improved dwellings offer). Our 4Q19 forecast implies FY19 revenues of PLN 814m and EBIT ex. revaluations of PLN 262m and net profit ex. revaluations of ca. PLN 193m (broadly in line with our previous expectations). As a reminder, our in our forecasts we assume a 75% pay-out ratio of adjusted consolidated net profit with additional payment...
Polish Residential Developers 4Q19E result previews
The analysed residential developers reported cumulative delivery of 2,245 units in 4Q19 (-32% y/y) and 9,326 units in FY19 (-12% y/y). Based on our estimates, we expect cumulative gross profitability to improve by 1.4pp y/y, while cumulative net profit to decline by 10% y/y in FY19 (mainly on lower y/y deliveries in Atal).
Kernel Holding 2Q19/20 Operations Update Review
Opinion: Supportive operating figures with record grain sales and neutral oil sales volumesOverall we perceive Kernel’s 2Q19/20 operations update as supportive given reported record grain sales from Ukraine (2.3m tonnes, up 30% y/y) while maintaining neutral oilseed oil sales (346k tonnes, down 9% y/y).
Polish Monthly Pension Funds Flows December 2019 + Pension funds’ po...
Equity net purchasesWe estimate that Polish Pension Funds sold Polish equities for PLN 59m (net) lastmonth (PZU OFE and Aviva OFE were the most active funds as they sold part oftheir stakes in Asseco Poland in tender offer announced by Cyfrowy Polsat),while purchased net PLN 16m of foreign equities.
Polish Monthly Mutual Funds Flows December 2019
Net flowsWe estimate that in December Polish asset managers saw net inflows ofPLN 0.47bn to capital market funds. Net inflows were seen in bond funds (PLN0.4bn), equities recorded net outflows of PLN 53m on our estimate, but Polishequity funds saw net inflows of PLN 74m on our estimates, mostly to small&midcap funds.
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