A market dominated by a few

ABGSC Shipping Daily 29 September

Tankers, dry bulk and LPG down. Shipping peer group trades at P/NAV 0.85x. All-time high US propane exports.

New CEO walks the walk

Sector bounce despite softer fundamentals

Early signs of an easing bond market, depth is uncertain. Property values are coming down more than previously expected.Shares up, estimates down, two downgrades.

Down to SELL again

Estimates up somewhat but normalised RoE is too low. Rating cut to SELL (Hold) after summer rally.

Rating cut to HOLD

~5% ahead of consensus into Q3-numbers. Share is up by ~30% since the trough in June. Down to HOLD (Buy).

Crude Quarterly Q3'23: higher for longer

Oil market fundamentals look strong medium-to-long term. Near term, it all hangs on OPEC. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

Upgraded to BUY

Seven reasons for our upgrade. In short, FCF will be strong going forward. Upgraded to BUY (Hold), TP to NOK 420 (350).

Limited upside for now – down to HOLD

Top-notch share price performance limits the upside near-term. Weak Yme production in July worries us. Downgraded to HOLD (Buy), TP to NOK 40 (42).

Solid entry point

Sector-high growth in '24e-'25e, driven by several growth initiatives. Weak share performance, solid entry point. BUY, TP SEK 85.

Cautious approach has paid off

-2% vs. cons for recurring PTP. Cautious when times were good. P/CEPS of ~13x vs. 10-year average of ~14x. HOLD, TP SEK 80.

SELL the capital

Top-line growth from increased CPI. Further property decline lowers NAV by ~6%. SELL and TP of SEK 170 reiterated.

Solid long for next 6-12 months

No clear angle to go long into numbers, while CATE is one of our top picks for the next 6-12 months. Sector-high growth with firepower. BUY.

Negative growth at high multiples

Just above consensus for Q3'23e. Normalised RoE not sufficient. Solid funding candidate. SELL.

Attractive relative valuation

Earnings growth set to continue. More property declines incorporated. '23e-'25e CEPS CAGR of 16% vs sector at 0%. BUY, TP SEK 15.

Turnover rents fully coming back in Q3

Continued operational momentum in H2'23. Stronger metrics across the board. BUY, TP increased to SEK 135 (130) on peer valuation.

Equity instruments absorbing income

Another quarter with write-downs and FX losses. Only 25% of IFPM is filtering through to ordinary shareholders. The Brookfield liquidity is a clear positive. HOLD, TP SEK 4.

Credit metrics not good enough

Operationally attractive, but too high leverage for the share to perform. Remain at HOLD, TP SEK 65 (70).

A name to consider

Interesting long into numbers, and set to grow earnings in '24e-'25e. We expect relative outperformance. BUY, TP SEK 130.

Estimate changes from Crude Quarterly, 29 September

In our 29 September Crude Quarterly report, we update our oil and gas price assumptions for our covered E&Ps. See the report for more details on our new oil market estimates and our updated price assumptions.