reports
- Michael Ashton
Quarterly Inflation Outlook (Q4, 2017)
Executive Summary Little of relevance to inflation is likely to change at the Fed under a Chairman Powell, who has learned most of what he knows about monetary policy and macroeconomics in his few years since joining the Fed, from the Fed staff. The Fed believes the Phillips Curve is broken, but we give pretty convincing evidence that it is working just fine. The ‘AirBnB Effect’ turned out to be a mirage, just as all of the “internet is killing inflation” memes will, eventually. Technology ...
- Michael Ashton
Quarterly Inflation Outlook (Q3, 2017)
Executive Summary Inflation isn’t dead. The rapid deceleration in core inflation that we have seen is caused largely by one-offs. Historically, the largest deceleration in core inflation we have seen since 1985 was a 1.87% deceleration in 1992; every deceleration of more than 1% since 1985 occurred during a recession that was already under way. Therefore, it is historically unlikely that these low readings will persist. Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER) is merely returning to model; there is ...
- Michael Ashton
Quarterly Inflation Outlook (Q2, 2017)
Executive Summary Measures of US inflation have recently decelerated. A large part of the deceleration is attributable to two quirky and surprising items. The first is that the CPIs for pharmaceuticals, and even more so for Medical Professional Services, have abruptly and inexplicably plunged. The second quirk is that wireless telephone services plunged 7% month-over-month and is now deflating at 13% year-over-year. This happened because the BLS methodology for sampling wireless telephony g...
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