reports
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: JGB stability helps the yen
Some welcome stability in the Japanese bond market is allowing a more positive assessment of the yen to win through. However, it would probably take much earlier Bank of Japan tightening to drive USD/JPY closer to 150. And after a poor performance on Monday, the dollar could derive a little support from a decent US retail sales figure today
- Benjamin Schroeder
- Michiel Tukker
Rates Spark: Supply dynamics a global story
Euro, dollar and sterling yield curves are all undergoing steepening pressures. A common theme is that supply worries are playing a role, with fiscal risks adding to the term premium. Our analysis of the demand for European government bonds suggests that yields may have to rise further to absorb the record incoming supply
- Reg Watson
- CFA
AB InBev/Hold my Beer/HOLD (previously Buy)
AB InBev is due to report its full year results on 12 February. We have adjusted our forecasts for the fourth quarter to account for weaker than previously expected volumes in North America, Brazil and China. We have also increased our 12-month target price from €56.18 to €66.20 but change our recommendation from Buy to HOLD.
- Stijn Demeester
Fagron/Compounding organic growth and accretive M&A/BUY
We raise our target price for Fagron from €25.5 to €27.0 ahead of its FY25 results on 12 February. We reiterate our BUY recommendation as the shares continue to offer a compelling combination of organic growth (2018-25F CAGR 8%, 2025-30F target HSD% to LDD%) and active and accretive M&A, in our view.
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Timothy Rahill
Bite Size Strategy/It's all about Tech
• Spreads began to leak a touch wider towards the end of last week in EUR, by 1-3bp. Financials saw a touch more underperformance versus corporates, but all credit still trades at rather tight levels. The Tech and Media sectors also underperformed with 3-6bp widening, with concerns growing around software corporates. Inflows continue the trend of marginal positivity. Meanwhile, supply has slowed down given the results season. • Reverse Yankee supply is picking up notably with €8bn coming to the...
- Nadège Tillier
Vattenfall/Solid YE25 results and bonds to refinance
Vattenfall was amongst the first European utilities to report its year-end 2025 results. Globally, the Swedish utility reported a good set of financial numbers. Its credit metrics are very robust, and the issuer remains our preferred Nordic utility. Vattenfall has four EUR bonds outstanding with one being a hybrid and two maturing in 2026. This is the probably the opportunity to see Vattenfall coming back to the bond market in the coming months.
- Roelof-Jan van den Akker
Technical Analysis/TTF Natural Gas
The weekly line chart clearly illustrates the market's behaviour following the impulsive rise and bullish reversal earlier this year. In early January, prices moved above the February 2024 low at €29.50/MWh, followed by a weekly close above both the EMA-40 line at €33.32/MWh and the descending trendline near €34.00/MWh, confirming a decisive shift toward a bullish trend.
- Nadège Tillier
Fortum/2025 results suffer due to lower generation
Fortum, Vattenfall and Orsted have launched the full year results period for European utilities. Fortum reported lower 2025 results in comparison with the previous year. Despite relatively stable power prices, the Finnish utility suffered from lower nuclear and hydro availability while, on the other hand, delivering on its efficiency programme. Management provided investors with a 2026 outlook for capital expenditure but there was little on financial targets. The company's capex programme will r...
- Alissa Lefebre
Belgian construction sector shows gradual recovery from slump
Belgium remains one of the few European countries where building permits are still falling, but signs of a bottoming out appeared in 2025. This should support a gradual recovery, with sector growth of 0.7% in 2026 and 0.8% in 2027. The building sector is expected to recover more slowly, increasing by 0.2% in 2026 and 0.5% in 2027
- Katinka Jongkind
Slight recovery for the Dutch staffing industry in 2026
The Dutch staffing industry is facing a radical transition. Stricter legislation and a structurally tight labour market are putting pressure on the traditional revenue model. ING Research suggests only a modest recovery in 2026, while a shake-out among staffing firms appears unavoidable
- Jesse Norcross
Balder/Decent 4Q25 and new issue
Balder released good 4Q25 numbers last week, with stable rental growth while occupancy trends were softer in 2025. Leverage will increase somewhat after the Norion distribution but the direction of travel remains positive. Balder has announced a new issue this morning, a 5.5y €500m WNG deal. We like the name and think this new issue could be a solid entry point for investors.
- Jesse Norcross
Balder/Decent 4Q25 and new issue
Balder released good 4Q25 numbers last week, with stable rental growth while occupancy trends were softer in 2025. Leverage will increase somewhat after the Norion distribution but the direction of travel remains positive. Balder has announced a new issue this morning, a 5.5y €500m WNG deal. We like the name and think this new issue could be a solid entry point for investors.
- Lynn Song
- Michiel Tukker
Euro rates may need to rise more to attract demand in 2026
Markets are facing a record amount of government bond supply in 2026 and our analysis suggests that yields may have to rise more to find sufficient demand. Banks should continue to be the most important buyer, followed by foreign investors. More price-sensitive buyers like investment funds may, however, seek higher yields to fill the demand shortfall
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
- Roelof-Jan van den Akker
Technical Analysis/Bund future
Last week, the weekly chart formed an outside week: the high at 128.54 exceeded the previous week's high of 128.40, while the low at 127.56 dipped below the prior low of 127.65. The market closed 12bp higher at 128.24, finishing slightly below the weekly high of 128.54. This pattern may signal a bullish reversal, implying the potential for further upside if prices move above last week's high of 128.54, thereby confirming the recovery. For a more meaningful advance within the broader consolidatio...
- ING Helpdesk
- Chris Turner
- Francesco Pesole
- Frantisek Taborsky
FX Daily: Headwinds stiffening for the dollar
The dollar is under pressure at the start of European trading today. Risk assets are bid as US big tech came back from the brink last week and the Nikkei surged on an emphatic win for the LDP in Sunday's Japanese election. The narrative of diversification away from the US is also in play after Chinese regulators warned of concentration risk in Treasuries
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
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