H&T’s 2024 results were reassuringly in line with expectations, delivering 10% PBT growth, with the pledge book capital value up 26%, retail sales up 27% and forex profits up 11%. The outlook remains positive, with i) strong demand in the core pawnbroking business where H&T is taking share and may have increasing acquisition opportunities, ii) consumer trends favouring its multi-channel, value-for-money, new and used product retail offering, iii) an expanding range of currencies helping forex gr...
We highlighted our capital markets day takeaways in CM day: 6 November fireworks; notably, i) positive market trends, ii) NB’s platform unique benefits, and iii) multiple levers for value creation. In this note, we update investors on i) the latest NAV/portfolio, ii) NBPE’s revised capital allocation framework, iii) the potential impact of current Trump polices, and iv) the impact of interest rate expectations, which seem to evolve daily but which, in our view, have seen a trend of higher-for-lo...
The Jenson EIS Fund is a generalist fund that invests into follow-on investments from Jenson’s existing SEIS and EIS investments. The fund invests at three different stages, with each tranche looking to diversify by stage of development, sector and business model. Jenson aims to provide 5-10 investments in each tranche, although towards the lower end of that is most common in practice. Jenson has a small team, using appropriate outsourcing to give scale. The report goes into details of how the...
The Seneca EIS Portfolio Fund invests in a mixture of unquoted and AIM-listed companies that are scaling up. It has a target return of 2x capital (before fees) and typically provides 5-7 investments in each portfolio. The fund has been running for over a decade and the management team has been in place for some time. Seneca has achieved a good number of exits over the past decade, taking advantage of liquidity on AIM when appropriate. The report goes into details of how the investment process w...
UK energy policy has changed of late, following the election of a Labour government last summer. The quest for Net Zero by 2030 – a hardly realistic target – is now a priority. Rightly or wrongly, the issues of security of supply, electricity prices and generation investment have all been superseded by this overarching aim. In recent months, the government has withheld licensing approvals for various oil and gas projects – the latter, in particular, is much needed. Irrespective of the ca.£40bn ...
In this month's feature article, we review the energy situation in the UK. On the domestic front, Ofgem has recently announced the new price cap figure of £1,849 for a typical household’s annual use of gas and electricity; this figure represents an increase of 6.4% over the January-March 2025 price cap. UK energy policy has changed of late, following the election of a Labour government last summer. The quest for Net Zero by 2030 – a hardly realistic target – is now a priority. Rightly or wrong...
One of the key trends in global financing markets has been the rise of private credit. In this report, we consider the implications for RECI. On the upside, we note i) the disintermediation of banks reconfirms the drivers to its business model, ii) this should be positive for sentiment, and iii) most of RECI’s competitive advantages relative to banks also apply to private credit funds. On the downside, we note i) competition will increase, especially for higher-end loans and staff, although RECI...
In this note, we review the prospects for accesso ahead of the final results in April. The January update was reassuring, with revenue of ca.$152m ahead of our $150m forecast and the ca.15% cash EBITDA margin well ahead of the 13.2% forecast. Conservatively, we maintained our FY25 and FY26 forecast. However, as accesso is a growth technology company with a leading market position, we expect revenues to gradually accelerate from 6% in FY25E into the high single digits, and margins to rise as the...
Volta has delivered +21.2% 2024 total NAV return, outperforming i) B-rated CLO tranches (+19.2%), ii) US high yield (+8.2%), iii) Euro high yield (+8.6%), and iv) global loans (+7.3%). Its performance reflects positive markets and the incremental value added by the manager through its asset selection and portfolio management. Looking into 2025, we expect another strong year from CLOs: more market growth (partially driven by loans issued to fund greater PE activity), and stable, if not falling, d...
Our Hardman & Co Insight of October 2024 looked forward to the first Labour Budget for 14 years. The main theme was that, because the new Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, had ruled out increases in taxes on ‘working people’, investors would bear the brunt of any tax increases to fill the alleged £22bn hole in the public finances left to the new government by the Tories. The pain that was going to be suffered was increased by the aim to raise some more to improve public services, so Reeves booked £40bn...
The Rockpool Inheritance Tax Service invests in two lending strategies: senior secured loans to small corporates as part of private equity deals, and asset-based lending, which is to reserve power companies and is mostly secured on energy contracts. The underlying company has 24 loans in its current portfolio. The service has been running since 2012 and, other than a short period in 2018/2019 when it had some bad debts, has largely reached or beaten its target return of 4% p.a. Currently, its ru...
21 notable buyouts since COVID-19 pandemic. With the January trading updates out of the way, we examine the outlook for the UK tech sector. As we entered January, the mood among investors was downbeat, given the tepid economic outlook, the changes announced in the UK Autumn budget, combined with the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. However, the January trading announcements, across the sector, were better than expected, with two earnings outlook upgrades to every downgrade, on our estimates....
Only Cordiant and Pantheon buck the trend... For the remaining 29 quoted Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and the Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs), 2024 was a dire year ‒ as was 2023. NAV discounts widened appreciably, while some REIFs, in particular, really struggled. During 2024, there were several “Continuation/Discontinuation Votes”, which saw some funds enter Managed Wind Down. Furthermore, there were no major sector fund-raises during the year; instead, share buy...
The OnePlanetCapital Climate Change EIS Fund is a Sustainable Impact fund that will provide exposure to a small portfolio of climate-tech companies. The focus will be on B2B companies, with exposure to five sectors: energy; transport, mobility and logistics; building and construction; packaging, waste and recycling and technology. The investment process includes a solid process to measure the impact of investments. The investment team are all former entrepreneurs, with six exits between them. T...
Feature article: The October 2024 Budget - We got it wrong By Keith Hiscock, CEO at Hardman & Co In this month's feature article, we review the effects of the 2024 Budget and consider what might happen in the coming months. Our Hardman Monthly of October 2024 looked forward to the first Labour Budget for 14 years. The main theme was that, because the new Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, had ruled out increases in taxes on ‘working people’, investors would bear the brunt of any tax increases to fill ...
As noted in our reports, 'CM day: further proof of value added by Apax' and '1H’24: deal activity coming back strongly', the stock of exit-able businesses is rebuilding at a time when market demand is returning. Apax Funds appear to have turned the corner, and both exit and investment activity is steadily rebuilding to more normal levels. In this note, we analyse the likely impact of the exit trend on i) NAV, with an expected greater correlation between EBITDA growth and NAV growth, ii) cashflow...
In this note we examine how shareholders benefit from ICGT’s unique approach to capital allocation (first discussed on page 11 of our 16 May 2024 note 'FY’24: portfolio companies performing strongly'). We have in previous notes highlighted how ICGT’s defensive growth strategy in practice differentiates itself from peers (see Appendix 1) and the capital allocation policy is also a differentiator. ICGT’s approach rewards investors with immediate income through a progressive dividend, long-term com...
The Seneca IHT Service is a non-AIM/unquoted BR product. It will invest in Seneca Secured Lending Limited and/or Seneca Secured Finance Limited, depending on the desired mix of capital and income returns. Both lend on a secured basis in a variety of areas. Both have a target return of 4% p.a., with Seneca Secured Finance paying its return as a dividend. The report goes into details of how the investment process works, sourcing and decision-making, exit strategies, post-investment governance and...
Feature article: Hardman & Co Healthcare Index, 2024 – Tough year for Life Sciences By Dr Martin Hall The main function of the HHI is to monitor the performance, and to highlight the attractiveness, of life sciences investments over the long term, and to try to identify those stocks that have disruptive technologies that consistently allow them to outperform both the index and the markets. Many of the 53 constituents of the index are high-risk, with micro-capitalisations and a long way from pro...
The Hardman & Co Healthcare Index (HHI) has been running since 2009. Its main function is to highlight the attractions of life sciences investments over the long term. For the third year running, despite generally good returns in global markets, particularly in the US, performance in 2024 was poor, not helped by the capital-intensive nature of the sector. The HHI fell 17.7% to 398.9, underperforming all its benchmarks – FTSE 100 (+5.7%), FTSE All-Share (5.6%) and the FTSE AIM All-Share Index (-5...
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