reports
- Cagdas Dogan
- Cagdas Dogan
BGC Partners: TURKEY - CBT Expectation Survey: No major change in infl...
OUR TAKE: We observe no major change in inflation expectations, as the positive surprise in February reading seems to be offset by increased depreciation pressure on TL, while 2020 GDP growth forecast has been cut for the first time since July 2019. Meanwhile, there seems to be a 50bps rate cut expectation from the CBT in next week’s meeting, 100bps over the next three months, and 175bps over the next twelve months. We currently plug in a 50bps rate cut in our forecasts in next week’s meetin...
- Cagdas Dogan
BGC Partners: TURKEY - Retail sales volume maintained a strong trend i...
According to Turkstat, retail sales volume registered a 9.6% y/y expansion in January 2020 in unadjusted terms; while the calendar-adjusted figure also increased by 9.6% y/y in January, which is a quite strong figure, albeit indicating a mild slow down compared to the 11.9% increase recorded in December 2019.
- Cagdas Dogan
BGC Partners: Industrial production maintained a strong trend in Janua...
According to Turkstat, industrial production (IP-NSA) registered a 7.8% y/y increase in January 2020; whereas, the calendar-adjusted IP rose by 7.9% y/y in January, which is a quite strong figure, albeit indicating a mild slow down compared to the 9.0% increase recorded in December 2019.
- Cagdas Dogan
BGC Partners: TURKEY - WEEKLY FX FLOWS: FX deposits UP, foreigners por...
DEPOSITS: Total non-bank FX deposits in the Turkish banking system increased by another US$2.7bn during the week of March 6, following the US$2.1bn increase in the previous week. We should note that both individual and corporate FX deposits have increased during last week. As such, non-bank FX deposits increased by US$8.3bn year-to-date and increased by US$27.5bn over a year ago.
- Cagdas Dogan
- Cagdas Dogan
BGC Partners: TURKEY - Turkey produced a C/A deficit of US$1.8bn in Ja...
We should note that the CBT has significantly revised the Balance of Payments statistics, as expected. One major changes is reflection of the new international trade services statistics, which has raised Turkey’s services income in 2019 by US$4.7bn for example, mainly via the transport channel. The other change is the adoption of the general trade system (vs. the old specific trade system), which has lowered Turkey’s goods trade deficit in 2019 by US$2.1bn for example.
- Erdem Hafizoglu
BGC Partners: YATAS 4Q19 Earnings - Weaker
Yatas reported TL19.1mn net income in 4Q19, lower (consensus: TL26mn, BGC: TL24mn)… Due to slightly lower operational performance and slightly higher financial expenses, Yatas posted TL19.1mn net income in 4Q19, lower than estimates (consensus: TL26mn, BGC: TL24mn). In 4Q19, Yatas recorded revenues of TL327.4mn, up by 20.5%, in line with estimates (consensus: TL352mn, BGC: TL321mn). The company has 444 total stores as of 2019-end including international stores (233 Enza Home, 210 Yatas Beddin...
- Cagdas Dogan
BGC Partners: TURKEY - Labour market was weak in December...
TURKSTAT released the unemployment data in Turkey for December (average of November, December, and January). According to the data, unemployment rate in Turkey was 13.7% in December 2019, compared to 13.3% in November 2019 and 13.5% in December 2018.
- Erdem Hafizoglu
BGC Partners: INDES - IN LINE: Indeks Bilgisayar <INDES TI> reported a...
As indicated by tax office financials on 17 February, Indeks Bilgisayar posted successful quarterly results thanks to robust performance on the PC, server, storage and other IT products front and on the consumer segment, despite relatively weaker Datagate numbers. The company reported TL1,960mn revenues in the seasonally strongest quarter (3Q19: TL1,025mn, 4Q18: TL833mn), in line with our TL1,940mn estimate.
- Ezgi Yilmaz
BGC Partners: THYAO 4Q19 Conference Call Highlights…
ASK impact of suspended flights: The management is will be revising down its 2020 guidance when there is further visibility on the virus outbreak. So far, suspended flights account for 6%, 9% and 10% of total passenger traffic, ASK and revenues, respectively. The company has not currently grounded any aircraft.
- Erdem Hafizoglu
- Ezgi Yilmaz
BGC Partners: THYAO 4Q19 Earnings Review: Better
Turkish Airlines reported a net profit of TL1,948mn (vs. TL38mn loss in 4Q18) in 4Q19, beating market consensus of TL1,021mn and BGC estimate of TL1,078mn… EBITDA came in at TL3,092mn (US$773mn, 130% YoY in US$ terms), vs. market consensus of TL2,932mn and BGC estimate of TL2,612mn. Main deviations from our expectations were: i) 2% higher RASK, ii) lower personnel expenses, iii) lower advertising expenses and iv) lower net financial expenses driven by a net FX gain of TL440mn in 4Q19. Note tha...
- Berna Kurbay
- Erdem Hafizoglu
BGC Partners: 4Q19 Earnings: ULKER (better), SOKM (lower)
Ulker Biskuvi reported TL164.6mn net earnings in 4Q19, better (consensus: TL121mn, BGC: TL119mn)… Thanks to the effective price and product positioning in both domestic and international markets, positive demand environment, new product launches, portfolio optimizations and favorable category mix impact in domestic and international operations, Ulker Biskuvi had a successful quarter in 4Q19. Supported by efficient cost management, positive impact of McVities in international operations, and s...
- Cagdas Dogan
- Cagdas Dogan
BGC Partners: TURKEY - WEEKLY FX FLOWS: FX deposits UP, foreigners por...
DEPOSITS: Total non-bank FX deposits in the Turkish banking system increased by US$2.1bn during the week of February 28, following the US$2.0bn increase in the previous week. We should note that it was predominantly individuals’ FX deposits which have increased during last week. As such, non-bank FX deposits increased by US$5.6bn year-to-date and increased by US$24.6bn over a year ago
- Berna Kurbay
- Ezgi Yilmaz
BGC Partners: Pegasus 4Q19 Conference Call Highlights… Downward revi...
The management established a cross-functional working group meeting daily to focus on the developments related to the virus. The company reduced all discretionary spending, focused on cutting personnel expenses, non-mandatory training expenses in order to compensate for the losses related to the virus. Fixed costs of Pegasus stand at around EUR50mn per month.
- Cagdas Dogan
- Ezgi Yilmaz
BGC Partners: PGSUS 4Q19 Earnings Review: Net income lower, operationa...
Pegasus reported a net profit of TL23mn (vs. TL138mn net loss in 4Q18) in 4Q19, lower than market consensus of TL64mn and BGC estimate of TL60mn… EBITDA (including IFRS16 impact) came in at TL560mn (+95% YoY), in line with market consensus (TL538mn) and BGC estimate (TL549mn). Main deviation from our estimates TL29mn of one-off expense from the sale of 49% stake in Air Mansa and higher than expected FX losses in 4Q19. Net profit and EBITDA stood at TL1,333mn (+163% YoY) and TL2,632mn (+77% YoY...
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