Borr Drilling

  • TickerA2JAU0
  • ISINBMG1466R1088
  • CountryBermuda

Analysts

Martin Huseby Karlsen

A closer look at consensus

We believe unrealistic consensus and negative estimate revisions for the past six years have been key contributors to weak share price performances for the offshore drillers. As a positive, 2020e consensus is now fairly realistic (we are 5% below, compared to 21% a year ago). For 2021e, we are still 24% below consensus EBITDA despite consensus dropping sharply over the past year. We expect upcoming datapoints with long-term UDW contracts around the USD250k/day level or below to support our estimates and result in consensus cuts. After years of negative revisions, we hope consensus catches on. ...

Martin Huseby Karlsen

Liquidity runway summary

In light of what appears to us to be a surprise to the wider equity market that Diamond Offshore needed to tap its revolving credit facility (RCF) in 2020, and the corresponding negative share price reaction, we have summarised the liquidity runway and likely use of RCFs for the offshore drillers. We continue to estimate that all contractors with RCFs, except Transocean, have already tapped their RCFs or will do so during 2020, and will be heavily dependent upon RCF extensions in 2022–2023. Other contractors without (meaningful) RCFs – like Awilco Drilling, Borr Drilling, Pacific Drilling and ...

Martin Huseby Karlsen

EP cash flow its worst since 2016

With three more oil majors having reported Q4 results last week, our conclusion remains – Q4 cash flow was very weak, with a combined overspend of 29% despite the oil price averaging USD63/bbl (versus USD54/bbl currently). For 2019 the majors total overspending was 8% at an average oil price of USD64/bbl. For oil services we believe this hurt both investor sentiment and fundamentals, supporting our more muted view on E&P spending than consensus. 2019 marked a return to overspending for oil majors after generating positive cash flow in 2017–2018, which is a key focus point for investors. Also, ...

Martin Huseby Karlsen

Weak cash flow from oil majors

So far the majors have reported weak Q4 cash flow, with aggregated overspend of 33% from Shell, Exxon, Chevron, and BP (at an average oil price of USD63/bbl). For 2019, they overspent cash flow by 12%, after generating positive cash flow in 2017–2018. We still believe a sustained higher oil price (mid-USD60s/bbl+) is needed to support higher E&P spending. Hence, the recent oil price sell-off to the low USD50/bbl is not helpful and we expect to hear muted spending comments ahead. Also, we consider oil majors’ weak Q4 cash flow on the downside for the offshore oil services sector.

Martin Huseby Karlsen

A closer look at consensus

We believe unrealistic consensus and negative estimate revisions for the past six years have been key contributors to weak share price performances for the offshore drillers. As a positive, 2020e consensus is now fairly realistic (we are 5% below, compared to 21% a year ago). For 2021e, we are still 24% below consensus EBITDA despite consensus dropping sharply over the past year. We expect upcoming datapoints with long-term UDW contracts around the USD250k/day level or below to support our estimates and result in consensus cuts. After years of negative revisions, we hope consensus catches on. ...

Martin Huseby Karlsen

Liquidity runway summary

In light of what appears to us to be a surprise to the wider equity market that Diamond Offshore needed to tap its revolving credit facility (RCF) in 2020, and the corresponding negative share price reaction, we have summarised the liquidity runway and likely use of RCFs for the offshore drillers. We continue to estimate that all contractors with RCFs, except Transocean, have already tapped their RCFs or will do so during 2020, and will be heavily dependent upon RCF extensions in 2022–2023. Other contractors without (meaningful) RCFs – like Awilco Drilling, Borr Drilling, Pacific Drilling and ...

Martin Huseby Karlsen

EP cash flow its worst since 2016

With three more oil majors having reported Q4 results last week, our conclusion remains – Q4 cash flow was very weak, with a combined overspend of 29% despite the oil price averaging USD63/bbl (versus USD54/bbl currently). For 2019 the majors total overspending was 8% at an average oil price of USD64/bbl. For oil services we believe this hurt both investor sentiment and fundamentals, supporting our more muted view on E&P spending than consensus. 2019 marked a return to overspending for oil majors after generating positive cash flow in 2017–2018, which is a key focus point for investors. Also, ...

Martin Huseby Karlsen

Weak cash flow from oil majors

So far the majors have reported weak Q4 cash flow, with aggregated overspend of 33% from Shell, Exxon, Chevron, and BP (at an average oil price of USD63/bbl). For 2019, they overspent cash flow by 12%, after generating positive cash flow in 2017–2018. We still believe a sustained higher oil price (mid-USD60s/bbl+) is needed to support higher E&P spending. Hence, the recent oil price sell-off to the low USD50/bbl is not helpful and we expect to hear muted spending comments ahead. Also, we consider oil majors’ weak Q4 cash flow on the downside for the offshore oil services sector.

1 director bought

A director at Borr Drilling Ltd bought 125,000 shares at 76.190NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing Close periods where trading activity is restricted under listing rules. The names of...

Alexander Aukner ...
  • Jon Masdal
  • Marius Knudssøn
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn

Northern Lights

Alexander Aukner ...
  • Jon Masdal
  • Marius Knudssøn
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Niclas Gehin
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Northern Lights

Alexander Aukner ...
  • Jon Masdal
  • Marius Knudssøn
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Patrik Ling

Northern Lights

Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen ...
  • Håkon Astrup
  • Jon Masdal
  • Marius Knudssøn
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Nicolas McBeath
  • Ole Martin Westgaard
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Simen Mortensen
  • Stefan Gauffin

Northern Lights

Jon Masdal ...
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Marius Knudssøn
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Patrik Ling

Northern Lights

An increasingly favourable environment allows BORR DRILLING to improve to Neutral

The independent financial analyst theScreener just upgraded the general evaluation of BORR DRILLING (NO), a company active in the Exploration & Production industry. As regards its fundamental valuation, the title confirms its rating of 3 out of 4 stars while its market behaviour remains as risky. theScreener believes, however, that a more enabling environment allows the title to increase its general evaluation to Neutral. As of the analysis date February 22, 2019, the closing price was NOK 23.40 and its expected value was estimated at NOK 22.58.

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