AF Gruppen ASA

Kilen Brygge ASSandakerveien 99B KSAF Gruppen ASA is a contracting and industrial company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in property, building, civil engineering, environment, and energy businesses in Norway, Sweden, Poland, and the United Kingdom. Co. has divided the business into five operating segments: Civil Engineering, Building, Property, Environment and Energy.
  • TickerAFG
  • ISINNO0003078107
  • ExchangeOslo Bors
  • SectorConstruction & Materials
  • CountryNorway

Analysts

Alexander Aukner ...
  • Niklas Wetterling
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Simen Mortensen

Northern Lights

Simen Mortensen

AF Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK122.00) - Reduced forecasts post-Q4

While Q4 reported EBIT fell short of our forecast, underlying EBT adj. (excluding IFRIC and goodwill amortisation) was in line. However, due to the increase in minority shareholders – now 27% of the group’s equity (+904bp QOQ) – we have raised the minority share of expected profits. Thus, in view of the Q4 results and the upcoming issue of c3m new shares (company’s option programme), we have cut our 2020–2022e EPS. Given the high valuation versus peers, and as we see consensus downside risk on EPS, we reiterate our SELL and NOK122 target price.

Aksel Øverland Engebakken ...
  • Bengt Jonassen
  • Casper Blom
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Petter Nystrøm

Talking Points - Aker ASA (Buy): Solid upside in its industrial holdings

Archer Limited (Buy) Post-results: Close to completing crucial refinancing NOK 3.5bn in dividends from main holdings last year Upside in NAV to drive the share – Discount normalised

Bengt Jonassen ...
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland

AF Gruppen - High quality yielder

Q4: Headline numbers below, underlying above Potential pay-outs ~NOK 16/share in next 12-15 months Valuation: ’21e P/E of ~15x after pay-outs is attractive

Bengt Jonassen ...
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland

AF Gruppen - Strong underlying margins, dividend hike

Q4: Operating PTP of NOK 397m vs. cons NOK 439m Earnings miss due to NOK 50m write-down in Offshore DPS of NOK 6.00 for H1’20 vs. NOK 5.00 expected

Simen Mortensen

AF Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK122.00) - Reduced forecasts post-Q4

While Q4 reported EBIT fell short of our forecast, underlying EBT adj. (excluding IFRIC and goodwill amortisation) was in line. However, due to the increase in minority shareholders – now 27% of the group’s equity (+904bp QOQ) – we have raised the minority share of expected profits. Thus, in view of the Q4 results and the upcoming issue of c3m new shares (company’s option programme), we have cut our 2020–2022e EPS. Given the high valuation versus peers, and as we see consensus downside risk on EPS, we reiterate our SELL and NOK122 target price.

Aksel Øverland Engebakken ...
  • Bengt Jonassen
  • Casper Blom
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Petter Nystrøm

Talking Points - Aker ASA (Buy): Solid upside in its industrial holdings

Archer Limited (Buy) Post-results: Close to completing crucial refinancing NOK 3.5bn in dividends from main holdings last year Upside in NAV to drive the share – Discount normalised

Bengt Jonassen ...
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland

AF Gruppen - High quality yielder

Q4: Headline numbers below, underlying above Potential pay-outs ~NOK 16/share in next 12-15 months Valuation: ’21e P/E of ~15x after pay-outs is attractive

Bengt Jonassen ...
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland

AF Gruppen - Strong underlying margins, dividend hike

Q4: Operating PTP of NOK 397m vs. cons NOK 439m Earnings miss due to NOK 50m write-down in Offshore DPS of NOK 6.00 for H1’20 vs. NOK 5.00 expected

Simen Mortensen

AF Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK122.00) - Too-high premium versus peers

For Q4, we expect a solid 26% YOY EBIT gain, but note that this figure is boosted by M&A and that IFRS16 also has a significant impact on annual growth. Including the increased share count and IFRS16, our Q4e EPS of NOK2.86 implies a c3% YOY gain. While AFG’s EBIT margins and M&A track record are industry-leading, we find the P/E valuation too high versus peers and our 2019–2022e EPS growth. Given the high valuation, and as we see consensus downside risk on EPS, we reiterate our SELL and NOK122 target price.

2 directors sold/bought

Two Directors at AF Gruppen Asa sold/bought 91,362 shares at 161.000NOK. The significance rating of the trade was 73/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing Close periods where trading activity is restricted under listing rules. The names ...

Alexander Aukner ...
  • Niklas Wetterling
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Simen Mortensen

Northern Lights

Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen ...
  • Jesper Ingildsen
  • Martin Arnell
  • Mats Bye
  • Nicolas McBeath
  • Ole Martin Westgaard
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Patrik Ling
  • Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Simen Mortensen
  • Stefan Gauffin

Northern Lights

Alexander Aukner ...
  • Eivind Sars Veddeng
  • Håkon Astrup
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Marius Knudssøn
  • Martin Arnell
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Nicolay Dyvik
  • Niklas Wetterling
  • Ole Martin Westgaard
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Patrik Ling
  • Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Simen Mortensen

Northern Lights

Alexander Aukner ...
  • Frank Maaø
  • Jesper Ingildsen
  • Jon Masdal
  • Martin Hoang Nguyen
  • Nicolay Dyvik
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Patrik Ling
  • Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Simen Mortensen

Northern Lights

Håkon Astrup ...
  • Mats Bye
  • Mattias Holmberg
  • Ole Martin Westgaard
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Simen Mortensen

Northern Lights

With a more favourable environment, AF GRUPPEN ASA improves to Positive

AF GRUPPEN ASA (NO), a company active in the Heavy Construction industry, is favoured by a more supportive environment. The independent financial analyst theScreener has confirmed the fundamental rating of the title, which shows 3 out of 4 stars, as well as its unchanged, defensive market behaviour. The title leverages a more favourable environment and raises its general evaluation to Positive. As of the analysis date December 3, 2019, the closing price was NOK 175.50 and its potential was estimated at NOK 194.61.

Ford Equity International Rating and Forecast Report

Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind each recommendation and reflect the fundamental and price data as of the last trading day of the week...

MarketLine Department

STRABAG SE - Strategy, SWOT and Corporate Finance Report

Summary STRABAG SE - Strategy, SWOT and Corporate Finance Report, is a source of comprehensive company data and information. The report covers the company's structure, operation, SWOT analysis, product and service offerings and corporate actions, providing a 360˚ view of the company. KeyHighlights STRABAG SE (STRABAG) is a provider of construction services. It provides civil engineering, transport infrastructures, and construction materials. The company’s key business activities include railway construction, sewer engineering, pipe and sewer construction, traffic engineering, waterway const...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy

The MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US have managed to break above their respective 200-day moving averages, providing further evidence that global equities are going through a bottoming process. • Remain overweight China which is leading global equities higher. RS uptrends remain intact for the Shanghai Composite and MSCI China indexes. In today's report we highlight a number of actionable charts Chinese companies, focusing on less-exploited price patterns... see page 2. • EAFE small- vs large-cap ratio exhibits early signs of bottoming. We view the potential bottom for the MSCI EAFE small- vs. larg...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy

Opportunity in EM countries Our cautious outlook and expectation for continued downward pressure on global equities remains intact. Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and EM) are all trading within patterns of lower highs and lower lows, leading us to believe the most likely scenario is that this near-term bounce is likely nothing more than a countertrend rally before longer-term downtrends reassert themselves. • Opportunity in EM. Both a top-down and bottoms-up analysis point to opportunity in EM countries despite the intact downtrend for the MSCI EM index. Additionally, t...

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