ALV Autoliv Inc.

REPEAT/Gabelli & Company’s 41st Annual Automotive Aftermarket Symposium

Gabelli & Company will host its 41st Annual Automotive Aftermarket Symposium on October 30 and October 31 in Las Vegas, Nevada. This conference showcases a full spectrum of leading automotive companies, including aftermarket parts retailers, original equipment & aftermarket parts suppliers, publicly traded dealership groups, and medium & heavy duty truck manufacturers. Presentations, fireside chats, and one-on-one meetings will be held from 12:00 p.m. PST on Monday, October 30 through 5:00 p.m. PST on Tuesday, October 31. The event occurs in conjunction with the AAPEX & SEMA industry trade shows. Investors should contact their salesperson for more information or to register.

2017 Participants

   
Autoliv Inc.

NYSE – ALV

AutoZone, Inc. NYSE – AZO
Boyd Group Income Fund

TSE – BYD.UN

Cooper Tire & Rubber Company NYSE – CTB
Dana Incorporated

NYSE – DAN

Donaldson Company, Inc. NYSE – DCI
Genuine Parts Company

NYSE – GPC

Lear Corporation NYSE – LEA
Monro Muffler Brake, Inc.

NASDAQ – MNRO

Motorcar Parts of America, Inc.

NASDAQ – MPAA

Myers Industries, Inc.

NYSE – MYE

Navistar International Corp.

NYSE – NAV

O’Reilly Automotive, Inc.

NASDAQ – ORLY

Penske Automotive Group, Inc.

NYSE – PAG

Rush Enterprises, Inc.

NASDAQ – RUSHA

Standard Motor Products, Inc.

NYSE – SMP

Stoneridge, Inc.

NYSE – SRI

Superior Industries International Inc.

NYSE – SUP

Tenneco, Inc.

NYSE – TEN

U.S. Auto Parts Network, Inc.

NASDAQ – PRTS

Momentum Dynamics

PRIVATE – Keynote: Andrew Daga

Truck Hero, Inc. PRIVATE
Motor & Equipment Manufacturing Association

Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association

 

© 2017 G. research, LLC - All rights reserved.

G.research, LLC, an institutional research and brokerage firm, is a subsidiary of Associated Capital Group, Inc. (NYSE:AC). Gabelli & Company is the marketing name for the registered broker dealer G.research, LLC. G.research, LLC, One Corporate Center Rye, NY 10580. Member of FINRA and SIPC.

EN
12/10/2017

Underlying

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Reports on Autoliv Inc.

Mattias Holmberg
  • Mattias Holmberg

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1435.00) - Set for an undramatic Q1

We are roughly in line with Q1 consensus, and expect an adj. EBIT margin close to the guidance of c7% and a reiteration of the 2024 guidance. We estimate c30% adj. EBIT growth for 2024 and the cUSD0.9bn of the buyback mandate that remains for this year to further support the stock, which remains one of our sector top picks. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK1,425 (1,300).

Mattias Holmberg
  • Mattias Holmberg

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1300.00) - Simply the best

After the Q4 results, Autoliv remains a sector top pick, with 2024e adj. EBIT growing >30% YOY, while the valuation remains supportive at a c10x P/E. We also expect the company to further accelerate share buybacks, where it has cSEK1bn (c12% of market cap) left of the current mandate that runs through end-2024. We have made minor estimate changes and trimmed our target price to SEK1,300 (1,320), and reiterate our BUY.

Mattias Holmberg
  • Mattias Holmberg

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1320.00) - Earnings growth and buybacks

We are roughly in line with Q4e consensus. Focus should be on the 2024 guidance, which we expect to be for 4–6% organic growth and a 10.5–11.0% adj. EBIT margin, leaving room for gradual increases during the year. We estimate >30% EPS growth for 2024, with support from the USD1.5bn buyback mandate. We reiterate our BUY but have trimmed our target price to SEK1,320 (1,360).

Mattias Holmberg
  • Mattias Holmberg

Decoding Alpha

Our analysis of underlying total shareholder return (TSR) drivers for Swedish Industrial companies reveals that high returns are not synonymous with high valuations. Investors tend to overpay for ‘growth’, while cash returns such as dividends and buybacks are typically deeply discounted. We believe Autoliv, Alfa Laval and Hexagon offer the most long-term TSR potential (13–14% annualised), with SKF and Trelleborg at the other end of the spectrum (8–9%), while also concluding that several stocks l...

Mattias Holmberg
  • Mattias Holmberg

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1360.00) - Get in and buckle up

Autoliv’s Q3 results have reinforced our view of the stock as a sector top pick. Autoliv ranks highest on earnings growth (2024e adj. EBIT up 43% YOY) and share buybacks (USD1.2bn still to be executed before end-2024e), while also being among the most attractively valued in the sector (2024e P/E of 8.5x versus a 12.4x average since the Veoneer spin-off in 2018). We have increased our 2023–2025e adj. EBIT by 10% on average (mainly due to a structurally lower tax rate) and raised our target price ...

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