Fourlis Holdings S.A.

Co. is engaged in the manufacture, import and distribution of electrical household appliances and the manufacture of FOURLIS kitchen hoods. In addition, through a subsidiary, Co. is engaged in the operation of a retail chain.
  • TickerFOYRK
  • ISINGRS096003009
  • SectorHousehold Goods & Home Construction
  • CountryGreece
Stamatios Draziotis CFA

G.RE.CO. (Greek Gaming, Retail & Consumer) | Greek consumer: positioning in the post COVID-19 world

Investment thesis – In our new GRECO edition we lower our estimates for our Greek consumer-related coverage universe, factoring in the slightly longer period of lockdown (until mid to end May in most cases) than previously assumed by our numbers (end April) which will lead to a >40% yoy decline in H1’20 EBIT. Most importantly, we reflect a more cautious outlook for H2’20, now envisaging a “swoosh”-shaped recovery as ongoing govt-imposed restrictions and social distancing weigh on consumer spending. We argue that the main debate relates to the pace of recovery and extent of normalization in 20...

Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Rebound continues, all indices in the black on lower volumes

EME Equity Market – May 2020 Market performance – the rebound that started in April continued across the board, with the Romanian BET Index gaining the most in EUR terms (+8.9% mom). The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 6% in EUR terms and 7.5% in local currency; while the Romania BET Index grew 8.9% in EUR terms and 9.1% in RON terms, the best performer for the month. The MOEX Index added 7.5%, while the Polish WIG20 Index was up 6.6%. The Turkish benchmark, the ISE30 Index, added 4.5%, and the Greek ASE Index gained 3.9%, while the Hungarian BUX recorded an increase of 3.7%. The weakest performer...

Research Team

WOOD Daily: ARNT CZ; POSR SV; COTE RO; PBK RO; HB CY; LPP PW; FMF PW; RTKM RX; CGEO LN; FOYRK GA; PEO PW; PKN PW; ENG PW; KRKG SV; TUPRS TI; CDR PW

HEADLINES: • Arena Hospitality Group: vacation - all I ever wanted (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Sava Re: seeking growth through M&A and abroad (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Conpet: go with the oil flow (HOLD - initiation of coverage) • Patria Bank Group: financing Romanian SMEs (HOLD - initiation of coverage) • Hellenic Bank: strong buffers to overcome COVID-19 • LPP: online penetration reaches 45%; relationships with landlords turning more amicable NEGATIVE • Famur: 1Q20 EBITDA 3% above consensus, net cash/EBITDA at 0.2x POSITIVE • Rostelecom: 1Q20 results better than expected; ...

Stamatios Draziotis CFA

Fourlis | COVID-19 scenarios

Stress-testing estimates for various COVID-19 scenarios – In this note, we build on our recent work on OPAP and Jumbo, extending our COVID-19 scenario modelling to Fourlis. The scenarios we examine model a €13m-€49m swing in 2020e EBITDA vs our current numbers (which assume full lockdown until April, with strong bounce-back in H2). We find that, after having secured extra liquidity of €50m, Fourlis has built enough war chest to handle a store closure period even beyond the end of 2020. We also argue that thanks to Fourlis’s investment in e-commerce in previous years, digital sales will help th...

An unfavourable environment weighs on FOURLIS HOLDING SA, which sees a downgrade to Slightly Negative

The independent financial analyst theScreener just requalified the general evaluation of FOURLIS HOLDING SA (GR), active in the Durable Household Products industry. As regards its fundamental valuation, the title still shows 1 out of 4 stars and its market behaviour is seen as moderately risky. theScreener believes that the unfavourable environment weighs on the sector and penalises the company, which sees a downgrade to its general evaluation to Slightly Negative. As of the analysis date April 10, 2020, the closing price was EUR 3.19 and its target price was estimated at EUR 3.03.

Fourlis Holding: 1 director bought

A director at Fourlis Holding bought 5,124 shares at 4.729EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing Close periods where trading activity is restricted under listing rules. The names of boar...

Stamatios Draziotis CFA

G.RE.CO. (Greek Gaming, Retail & Consumer) | Greek consumer: positioning in the post COVID-19 world

Investment thesis – In our new GRECO edition we lower our estimates for our Greek consumer-related coverage universe, factoring in the slightly longer period of lockdown (until mid to end May in most cases) than previously assumed by our numbers (end April) which will lead to a >40% yoy decline in H1’20 EBIT. Most importantly, we reflect a more cautious outlook for H2’20, now envisaging a “swoosh”-shaped recovery as ongoing govt-imposed restrictions and social distancing weigh on consumer spending. We argue that the main debate relates to the pace of recovery and extent of normalization in 20...

Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Rebound continues, all indices in the black on lower volumes

EME Equity Market – May 2020 Market performance – the rebound that started in April continued across the board, with the Romanian BET Index gaining the most in EUR terms (+8.9% mom). The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 6% in EUR terms and 7.5% in local currency; while the Romania BET Index grew 8.9% in EUR terms and 9.1% in RON terms, the best performer for the month. The MOEX Index added 7.5%, while the Polish WIG20 Index was up 6.6%. The Turkish benchmark, the ISE30 Index, added 4.5%, and the Greek ASE Index gained 3.9%, while the Hungarian BUX recorded an increase of 3.7%. The weakest performer...

Fani Tzioukalia ...
  • Gabriela Burdach
  • Jakub Mician
  • Lukasz Wachelko, CFA
  • Stefan Lungu, CFA

CEE Consumers: #stayathome (coverage universe update)

The development of the COVID-19 pandemic has changed the landscape for consumer names materially. While #stayathome is slowing down the contagion, it has infected the foundations of discretionary retailers severely. At the same time, the staples players have seen a sales boost, especially in the e-commerce space. Facing such a storm among the especially vulnerable players hurt by store lockdowns and carrying high leverage, we identify: AmRest, CCC, Kofola and Fourlis. On the other hand, FMCG distributors and manufacturers are the relative winners. However, taking into account share price perfo...

Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: BET Index the best performer, despite 16.7% drop

EME Equity Market – March 2020 Market performance – all stock indices in the region were down in March, with the BET the best performer in EUR terms (-16.7%). The MSCI Emerging Markets Europe Index lost 25.8% in EUR terms, while the Czech PX Index was down 24.8%. Other regional stock markets were not far behind, with the BUX Index losing 22.8% in EUR terms, followed by the ASE Index (-22.5% mom), the Russian MOEX (-22.4% mom), the Polish WIG20 (-18.5% mom) and the Turkish ISE30 (-19.8% mom). The best performance was seen in Romania, with the BET Index losing “only” 16.7%. In local currency ter...

Alex Boulougouris, CFA ...
  • Marta Jezewska-Wasilewska
  • Research Team

EME Strategy: Seeking alpha in pyjamas

The global pandemic has created a massive sell-off in all the markets in our region. Although we are still in the middle of the crisis, and it is impossible to know the endgame, in this report, we attempt to help investors navigate this, assuming two potential scenarios: 1) a prolonged crisis, with a delayed return to normality, a deep recession in 2020E and only a slow recovery in 2021E; or 2) a short-lived crisis, with the lockdowns easing gradually in May, a recession in 2020E, but a visible recovery in 2021E. In either scenario, we prefer stocks with strong balance sheets, low leverage, or...

Research Team

WOOD Daily: ARNT CZ; POSR SV; COTE RO; PBK RO; HB CY; LPP PW; FMF PW; RTKM RX; CGEO LN; FOYRK GA; PEO PW; PKN PW; ENG PW; KRKG SV; TUPRS TI; CDR PW

HEADLINES: • Arena Hospitality Group: vacation - all I ever wanted (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Sava Re: seeking growth through M&A and abroad (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Conpet: go with the oil flow (HOLD - initiation of coverage) • Patria Bank Group: financing Romanian SMEs (HOLD - initiation of coverage) • Hellenic Bank: strong buffers to overcome COVID-19 • LPP: online penetration reaches 45%; relationships with landlords turning more amicable NEGATIVE • Famur: 1Q20 EBITDA 3% above consensus, net cash/EBITDA at 0.2x POSITIVE • Rostelecom: 1Q20 results better than expected; ...

Research Team

WOOD Daily: CEE Banks; CEE Consumers; GPW PW; MNOD LI; MOL HB; OMV AV; SNP RO; LPP PW; MOEX RX; SNN RO; CAI AV; RICHT HB

HEADLINES: • CEE banks: there are no winners, just survivors (coverage universe update) • CEE consumers: #stayathome (coverage universe update) • Warsaw Stock Exchange: 4Q19 EBIT misses consensus by 8% on higher-than-expected opex NEGATIVE • Norilsk Nickel: declares final dividend in line with expectations, and nominates new Board NEUTRAL • MOL: update on business conditions, dividend suspended • OMV: 1Q20 trading update • OMV Petrom: 1Q20 trading update • LPP: CEO expects stores to re-open in June NEUTRAL • Moscow Exchange: number of retail brokerage accounts in Russia up 7% mom in April...

Research Team

WOOD Daily: EME Macro; CCC PW; GTC PW; SPI AV; MOH GA; OTP HB; PL Banks; PL Retailers; MAVI TI; FROTO TI; PKN PW; ATRS AV; FOYRK GA; MOL HB; FXPO LN

HEADLINES: • EME macro: ECB broadens scope for QE • CCC: issue of 20% equity (pre-emptive rights), Mr .Milek will buy no less than 35% of the offer POSITIVE • GTC: 4Q19 - recurring in line, dividend decision postponed, focus on balance sheet NEUTRAL • S Immo: 4Q19 - hotels and retail exposure, combined with leverage, spells tough year ahead • Motor Oil Hellas: 4Q19 results - EBITDA below expectations • OTP Bank: Hungarian government announces generous loan repayment moratorium and cash loans cap NEGATIVE • Polish banks: PFSA to prepare package to reinforce Polish banking sector • Polish no...

Research Team

WOOD Daily: Global Macro; PL Macro; TL Macro; PL Banks; MONET CP; AEGN GA; RBI AV; KGH PW; FOYRK GA; MGNT LI; NRP NA; PZU PW; GR Banks; TLV RO; CEZ CP; TPE PW; CPS PW; JSW PW; FIVE LI

HEADLINES: • Global macro: outlook - revisions to US and Eurozone projections • Poland macro: NBP cuts reference rate to 1.00% • Turkey macro: MPC cuts to 9.75%; we keep target expectation of 9% • Polish banks: to see 5-10% lower profits in 2020E due solely to cut in rates NEGATIVE • MONETA Money Bank: decides to suspend dividend policy and retain 2019 net profit NEGATIVE • Aegean Airlines: 4Q19 - ends the year on a high note; strong liquidity should see it through • Raiffeisen Int.: publishes full annual statements • KGHM: 4Q19 results - EBITDA 17% below consensus, but FCF benefits from...

Research Team

Focus: Cyfrowy Polsat bids to purchase a 21.95% stake in Asseco Poland for PLN 65/share; QIWI – feedback from the conference call; Kety’s 4Q19 preliminary EBITDA 4% above our expectations; Kofola sells its 50% stake in its Russian associate

HEADLINES: • Cyfrowy Polsat: bids to purchase a 21.95% stake in Asseco Poland for PLN 65/share NEUTRAL • QIWI: feedback from the conference call NEUTRAL • Kety: 4Q19 preliminary EBITDA 4% above our expectations POSITIVE • Kofola: sells its 50% stake in its Russian associate POSITIVE • Jeronimo Martins: up to PLN 500 wage hikes in the New Year NEUTRAL • mBank: press speculates more on mBank takeover details NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: wants to take advantage of PSD2 • Fourlis: agreement for first medium-sized store in Bulgaria • Short News (PEO, SPL, PKP)

An unfavourable environment weighs on FOURLIS HOLDING SA, which sees a downgrade to Slightly Negative

The independent financial analyst theScreener just requalified the general evaluation of FOURLIS HOLDING SA (GR), active in the Durable Household Products industry. As regards its fundamental valuation, the title still shows 1 out of 4 stars and its market behaviour is seen as moderately risky. theScreener believes that the unfavourable environment weighs on the sector and penalises the company, which sees a downgrade to its general evaluation to Slightly Negative. As of the analysis date April 10, 2020, the closing price was EUR 3.19 and its target price was estimated at EUR 3.03.

Ford Equity International Rating and Forecast Report

Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind each recommendation and reflect the fundamental and price data as of the last trading day of the week...

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