Lonza Group AG

Lonza supplies services and products that range from active pharmaceutical ingredients and stem-cell therapies to drinking water sanitizers, from vitamin B compounds and organic personal care ingredients to agricultural products, and from industrial preservatives to microbial control solutions. Co. operates in two segments: Lonza Pharma & Biotech, which clusters all of Co.'s offerings for pharmaceutical markets, focuses on providing custom development, custom manufacturing, cell therapy, viral therapeutics and bioscience solutions; and Lonza Specialty Ingredients, which includes offerings in its consumer care, agro ingredients, industrial solutions, wood protection and water treatment.
  • TickerLONN
  • ISINCH0013841017
  • ExchangeSix Swiss Exchange
  • SectorPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
  • CountrySwitzerland
Dominic Rose ...
  • Naresh Chouhan

Lonza - Margin Upside - PT to CHF620

We learnt on Friday that Lonza will absorb CHF150m of additional OPEX this year (in part to support COVID vaccine sales) which we believe is an underlying margin upgrade for 2021 and beyond. We are now 5% higher than consensus EBITDA this year and 10% higher next year whilst our margin forecasts are 210bps higher than consensus for 2021. Consequently, we increase our DCF-based valuation. Note, we do not include any sales from the mRNA COVID vaccine. We also expect the sale of LSI to support a re-rating of the LPBN business supplemented by M&A using the LSI sale proceeds. For access to the ful...

Dominic Rose ...
  • Naresh Chouhan

Intron Health - Lonza: Upside Aplenty – PT up to CHF580

Our LBPN deep-dive leads us to believe there is considerable upside from new modalities, US & EU onshoring trends, the IBEX platform & the newly signed Moderna alliance. We increase our 2025 group sales forecasts by 13% and EBITDA forecasts by 15%. We are now 10% above consensus EBITDA in 2022 and 8% higher on sales. We do not include the Moderna COVID vaccine in our forecasts but show that it could add ~40% to 2021 EBIT (although adds 2-3% to company NPV). A number of imminent catalysts could boost the shares: LSI spin decision is due any day, MRNA COVID vaccine P2 data in Q320 & the new CEO ...

Lonza Group Ag: 1 director bought

A director at Lonza Group Ag bought 150 shares at 415.000CHF and the significance rating of the trade was 56/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing Close periods where trading activity is restricted under listing rules. The names of board...

Dominic Rose ...
  • Naresh Chouhan

Intron Health: COVID-19 - Lockdowns Until 2021

Whilst the market is expecting a near-term peak in cases in Europe, we show that there are likely to be continual outbreaks into 2021 and we will likely see ongoing economic disruption for many quarters to come. HK & Taiwan eased some of the social distancing measures and saw a marked increase in COVID-19 cases. The UK govt’s base case is for continual outbreaks. We show that ICU beds are the limiting factor & driving govt behaviours, not economic disruption. Crucially, we show that looking at daily case numbers to find the peak is no longer a valid dataset & market focus on this dataset is mi...

By reducing its risk exposure, LONZA GROUP AG improves to Slightly Positive

LONZA GROUP AG (CH), a company active in Speciality Chemicals, reduces its risk exposure and improves its general evaluation despite the loss of a fundamental star(s). The independent financial analyst theScreener has removed a fundamental star(s) of the title, which now shows 2 out of 4 stars; conversely, its market risk is now considered lower and can be described as defensive. Despite the loss of a star, theScreener upgrades the general evaluation of the title to Slightly Positive. As of the analysis date March 10, 2020, the closing price was CHF 367.00 and its potential was estimated at CH...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Int'l Macro Vision: Sector Synopsis

Int'l Equity Strategy Global equities were on a tear in early January, continuing the trend that began in 4Q2019. As global equities started to get extended, the coronavirus outbreak hit in mid-January, leading to some market setbacks and deterioration in market indicators as global growth expectations were dialed-in. Despite this deterioration, what was important to us was that there were not any breakdowns. Even the areas of the market most-directly affected by the outbreak -- China (MSCI China) and EM (MSCI EM) -- were not breaking down. To us, this was a reassuring sign of underlying stre...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy

EM Pullback Opportunity Supporting our global bull market thesis, uptrends remain intact for the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM). At this point, concerns surrounding the Wuhan coronavirus have led to some market setbacks and deterioration in market indicators, however they have not resulted in breakdowns. This is true even for areas of the market most-directly affected, including China (MSCI China) and emerging markets (MSCI EM). For these reasons and, as long as there is no significant additional damage, we view recent weakness as a buying opportunity - especially ...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy

Another test of support Heightened trade tensions have caused global equities to move from resistance to support in a matter of days. Additional consolidation - i.e., no breakdowns - on the broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remains the most likely scenario. At the same time, new cracks are beginning to show and as a result we believe global equities are vulnerable to a breakdown. • New cracks emerging. Breakdowns in crude oil and new lows for the STOXX 600 Bank supersector are two recent developments which have dampened our overall outlook... see charts below. • Tes...

Jérôme VINERIER

Analyse court terme - LONZA GROUP : Les cours progressent encore.

La tendance de fond est clairement orientée à la hausse. Les cours progressent encore, mais le mouvement montre moins de puissance. La prochaine résistance est à 342,60 CHF. La rupture du support à 275,40 CHF invaliderait cette tendance.

Jérôme VINERIER

Short term view - LONZA GROUP : Prices are still making progress

The background trend is clearly bullish. Prices are still making progress but there is less power in the movement. The next resistance is at CHF 342.60. Breaking below the support at CHF 275.40 would invalidate the trend.

Lonza Group Ag: 1 director bought

A director at Lonza Group Ag bought 150 shares at 415.000CHF and the significance rating of the trade was 56/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing Close periods where trading activity is restricted under listing rules. The names of board...

Dominic Rose ...
  • Naresh Chouhan

Lonza - Margin Upside - PT to CHF620

We learnt on Friday that Lonza will absorb CHF150m of additional OPEX this year (in part to support COVID vaccine sales) which we believe is an underlying margin upgrade for 2021 and beyond. We are now 5% higher than consensus EBITDA this year and 10% higher next year whilst our margin forecasts are 210bps higher than consensus for 2021. Consequently, we increase our DCF-based valuation. Note, we do not include any sales from the mRNA COVID vaccine. We also expect the sale of LSI to support a re-rating of the LPBN business supplemented by M&A using the LSI sale proceeds. For access to the ful...

Dominic Rose ...
  • Naresh Chouhan

Intron Health - Lonza: Upside Aplenty – PT up to CHF580

Our LBPN deep-dive leads us to believe there is considerable upside from new modalities, US & EU onshoring trends, the IBEX platform & the newly signed Moderna alliance. We increase our 2025 group sales forecasts by 13% and EBITDA forecasts by 15%. We are now 10% above consensus EBITDA in 2022 and 8% higher on sales. We do not include the Moderna COVID vaccine in our forecasts but show that it could add ~40% to 2021 EBIT (although adds 2-3% to company NPV). A number of imminent catalysts could boost the shares: LSI spin decision is due any day, MRNA COVID vaccine P2 data in Q320 & the new CEO ...

Dominic Rose ...
  • Naresh Chouhan

Intron Health: COVID-19 - Lockdowns Until 2021

Whilst the market is expecting a near-term peak in cases in Europe, we show that there are likely to be continual outbreaks into 2021 and we will likely see ongoing economic disruption for many quarters to come. HK & Taiwan eased some of the social distancing measures and saw a marked increase in COVID-19 cases. The UK govt’s base case is for continual outbreaks. We show that ICU beds are the limiting factor & driving govt behaviours, not economic disruption. Crucially, we show that looking at daily case numbers to find the peak is no longer a valid dataset & market focus on this dataset is mi...

Feasibility Study Results in December to be a Catalyst for this Junior

Feasibility Study Results in December to be a Catalyst for this Junior