Novolipetsk Steel OJSC (GDR)

  • TickerN7MG
  • ISINUS67011E2046
  • ExchangeBerlin Stock Exchange
  • SectorIndustrial Metals & Mining
  • CountryRussia

BCS Equity Daily: Transneft, NLMK, MTS, RusHydro

China Mfg beats vs WHO alarm, pressured Brent Ahead: Prudence entering holiday. China official June manufacturing PMI beat (50.9 vs 50.4 expected), signaling economic recovery is continuing and, hence, demand from the world’s largest importer of oil is, for now, intact – fodder for the Bullish generally and oil Bulls in particular. However, any upside will be capped by WHO’s foreboding assessment that the COVID-19 pandemic “is not even close to being over… [and] the worst is yet to come.” WHO’s warning cautions that demand may be at risk, in turn, Brent is under some pressure, with sentiment...

Artem Bagdasaryan ...
  • Kirill Chuyko
  • Oleg Petropavlovskiy

BCS Trading Idea Closed: Short NLMK – Closing on Stop Loss

We are closing our Short NLMK Trade Idea, as the stock has breached our Stop Loss of 15%. The stock returned: - -21% in $-terms - -27% in Rb-terms - -6% relative to the RTS Reason for breach / L-T fundamental view: The market has been focusing more on the longer term recovery hopes, rather than collapsing steel prices in Russia and poor steel demand. Our L-T fundamental take on NLMK remains Under Review; we will shortly Resume Coverage. Separately, we retain our Short SVST Trade Idea, arguing the current stock price level is too high, given competition risks and stronger ruble. Kirill Ch...

NOVOLIPETSK STEEL OJSC sees an upgrade to Slightly Positive due to a better fundamental star rating

The general evaluation of NOVOLIPETSK STEEL OJSC (RU), a company active in the Steel industry, has been upgraded by the independent financial analyst theScreener with the addition of a star. Its fundamental valuation now shows 3 out of 4 possible stars while its market behaviour can be considered as moderately risky. theScreener believes that the additional star(s) merits the upgrade of its general evaluation to Slightly Positive. As of the analysis date May 29, 2020, the closing price was USD 19.22 and its potential was estimated at USD 20.18.

BCS Equity Daily: Lukoil, NLMK, HeadHunter, Aeroflot

Recovery hopes, $36 Brent v lingering risks Ahead: Time ripe to sell into strength. Trade has exhibited a spate of exuberance – justified to a degree as countries worldwide begin to ease their economy shattering lockdowns. Brent has recouped some lost ground on the improved demand outlook, buoyed also by headlines that OPEC+ is committed to staying the course on output cuts as well as the Russia Energy Ministry’s projection that the market will rebalance by July. However, clear and present risks – 2nd wave COVID-19, souring US-China relations – cannot long be ignored, suggesting players will ...

Novolipetsk Steel: 1 director bought

A director at Novolipetsk Steel bought 19,108 shares at 15.700USD and the significance rating of the trade was 79/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing Close periods where trading activity is restricted under listing rules. The names of ...

Novolipetsk Steel: 1 director bought

A director at Novolipetsk Steel bought 19,108 shares at 15.700USD and the significance rating of the trade was 79/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing Close periods where trading activity is restricted under listing rules. The names of ...

BCS Equity Daily: Transneft, NLMK, MTS, RusHydro

China Mfg beats vs WHO alarm, pressured Brent Ahead: Prudence entering holiday. China official June manufacturing PMI beat (50.9 vs 50.4 expected), signaling economic recovery is continuing and, hence, demand from the world’s largest importer of oil is, for now, intact – fodder for the Bullish generally and oil Bulls in particular. However, any upside will be capped by WHO’s foreboding assessment that the COVID-19 pandemic “is not even close to being over… [and] the worst is yet to come.” WHO’s warning cautions that demand may be at risk, in turn, Brent is under some pressure, with sentiment...

Artem Bagdasaryan ...
  • Kirill Chuyko
  • Oleg Petropavlovskiy

BCS Trading Idea Closed: Short NLMK – Closing on Stop Loss

We are closing our Short NLMK Trade Idea, as the stock has breached our Stop Loss of 15%. The stock returned: - -21% in $-terms - -27% in Rb-terms - -6% relative to the RTS Reason for breach / L-T fundamental view: The market has been focusing more on the longer term recovery hopes, rather than collapsing steel prices in Russia and poor steel demand. Our L-T fundamental take on NLMK remains Under Review; we will shortly Resume Coverage. Separately, we retain our Short SVST Trade Idea, arguing the current stock price level is too high, given competition risks and stronger ruble. Kirill Ch...

BCS Equity Daily: Lukoil, NLMK, HeadHunter, Aeroflot

Recovery hopes, $36 Brent v lingering risks Ahead: Time ripe to sell into strength. Trade has exhibited a spate of exuberance – justified to a degree as countries worldwide begin to ease their economy shattering lockdowns. Brent has recouped some lost ground on the improved demand outlook, buoyed also by headlines that OPEC+ is committed to staying the course on output cuts as well as the Russia Energy Ministry’s projection that the market will rebalance by July. However, clear and present risks – 2nd wave COVID-19, souring US-China relations – cannot long be ignored, suggesting players will ...

Artem Bagdasaryan ...
  • Kirill Chuyko
  • Oleg Petropavlovskiy

BCS Under Review: SVST, MMK, NLMK, EVR – Local steel price premium unsustainable

We are taking Severstal, NLMK, MMK and Evraz Under Review and withdraw our recommendations, TPs and earnings estimates. - Premium of domestic steel prices to export excessive o Local steel price premium of 30% is not sustainable o Domestic demand likely to collapse up to 50% in May - We will perform more detailed scenario analysis and update rating shortly Note: Our previous recommendation, target price and financial forecasts are withdrawn and should not be relied upon in making investment decision. Kirill Chuyko, Managing Director, Head of Research, Oleg Petropavlovskiy, Directo...

Artem Bagdasaryan ...
  • Kirill Chuyko
  • Oleg Petropavlovskiy

BCS Trade Ideas Opened: Short SVST & NLMK – Exporter bliss is gone, May steel demand to collapse

This time of the year when the domestic steel price premium to export is c30%, SVST and NLMK valuations are too high – both are Shorts again. - Domestic prices likely to collapse on a 30% premium to net back - Domestic demand may fall up to 50% in May, forcing jump in exports - Export prices already fell 5.8% m/m, may fall more on export spikes - MMK and NLMK’s exports are already lossmaking on steel only basis - Valuation: SVST/NLMK P/E at 9.7x/10.4x if steel premium falls to 15% - Return / Duration: -20% in each / end-July - Triggers: Local and export steel prices fall within 2-3 weeks - R...

BCS Fixed Income Daily: NLMK vv

Reopenings, c$31 Brent v COVID threat, Fed-speak Ahead: Too soon to ‘count chickens’. Ongoing measured reopenings of various economies worldwide have injected a modicum of optimism into the growth and demand outlook, bolstering the risk trade and Brent, also buoyed by scaled back US and OPEC+ production. Still, while economic reopenings and rising Brent offer relief, prudence warns it is too soon to ‘count chickens’. Indeed, COVID-19 remains a threat to recent reopenings / global growth (namely, a second wave is still feared and the virus continues to mutate – e.g., a new study, albeit not y...

BCS Fixed Income Daily: GTLC, NLMK, MMK

US floats bleak COVID-19 outlook Ahead: ‘V’ angst rises. A bleak projection by the US on COVID-19 (up to 240,000 deaths possible) and concern that an ending of lockdowns in China may reignite the spread of the virus have implied fallout on the global economy may be longer and deeper than earlier hoped, prompting players to fear the expected ‘V’-shaped economic recovery is more likely to be a ‘U’ or ‘L’. Brent, too, remains under pressure on a larger than expected build in US stockpiles (+10.5mmbd vs expected +4mmbd) and the unresolved OPEC-Russia dispute, which threatens to see the Saudis and...

BCS Fixed Income Daily: NLMK, Gazprom

‘C’-virus spikes, but Brent steady Ahead: Enthusiasm checked. Following the recent uptick, expect the pendulum to be tempted to begin swinging the other way – i.e., some players may opt to lock in profit. Indeed, headlines on the ‘C’-virus took an unexpected turn – China announced the spread of the virus had spiked in Hubei, calling into question earlier projections that the contagion may be peaking. Still, Brent is steady, trading above $55/bbl, suggesting not all players have given up hope for a sooner-than-later end to the virus threat. Still, trade will likely be cautious, given the vulne...

BCS Fixed Income Daily: NLMK

Local rally may continue Ahead: Geopolitical risks weaken, upside from local politics remains. The Russian market may continue to benefit from the cabinet reshuffle, Mishustin apparently perceived as a better bet on future growth – today, the rest of the cabinet should be announced – demand will likely be pivoted towards the stocks of those companies focused on the domestic market. Internationally, economic considerations are more in focus this week and, as such, US markets will be driven by financial reporting – expectations are fairly positive, though the tide may be balanced in favor of S...

BCS Fixed Income Daily: NLMK, MMK

Skittish as ‘T-Day’ draws near Ahead: Waiting for a formal delay to US tariffs. The only driver that seems to matter right now is US-China trade. That progress has not yet been made is spooking investors, but optimists are still preventing a large decline. Indeed, if the US does delay tariffs, the announcement will likely be made at the last minute, with Trump hoping China blinks first and makes some concessions. Ultimately, all the losses we have seen thus far could be quickly regained at the end of the week/on Monday – current weakness could be a potential entry point for the risk tolerant....

Alexander Golinsky ...
  • Alexander Sychev
  • Alexey Bulgakov
  • Alexey Kirichok
  • Alisa Zakirova
  • Anastasia Khakhaeva
  • Andrew Keeley
  • Ekaterina Sidorova
  • Irina Lapshina
  • Kirill Rogachev
  • Nikolay Minko
  • Research Team
  • Svetlana Sukhanova
  • Vladimir Lezhnev

Debt Markets Today - May 6, 2020

CIS EUROBOND MARKETOver the local holidays that started last Thursday, the Russian Eurobond market was languid given the absence of local investors. However, sovereign prices managed to rise a bit thanks to improving risk appetite in global markets. The Russia 42 outperformed with a gain of 0.9 pp. GOVERNMENT DEBTLast Thursday, the OFZ market saw brisk trading, with investors reducing their positions ahead of the public holidays in Russia. Yields rose 3-5 bps, and turnover reached R30 bln.STORIES> European Commission to review steel import quotas> NLMK: Strong 1Q20 financials, weak 2Q20 outloo...

Alexander Golinsky ...
  • Alexander Sychev
  • Alexey Bulgakov
  • Alexey Kirichok
  • Alisa Zakirova
  • Anastasia Khakhaeva
  • Andrew Keeley
  • Ekaterina Sidorova
  • Irina Lapshina
  • Kirill Rogachev
  • Nikolay Minko
  • Research Team
  • Svetlana Sukhanova
  • Vladimir Lezhnev

Долговые рынки сегодня - 6 мая 2020

РЫНОК ВНЕШНЕГО ДОЛГА СТРАН СНГВвиду отсутствия локальных инвесторов рынок российских еврооблигаций после закрытия торгов в четверг оставался малоактивным, однако с улучшением восприятия риска на глобальных рынках длинным выпускам удалось подняться в цене. Наибольший рост показали Россия-42 (на 0,9 п. п.).ГОСУДАРСТВЕННЫЕ ЦЕННЫЕ БУМАГИВ четверг, перед длительными праздниками в России, торги на рынке ОФЗ проходили активно: как обычно, инвесторы сокращали позиции в рискованных активах. Доходности выросли на 3-5 б. п. Обороты составили 30 млрд руб.НОВОСТИ> Eврокомиссия пересмотрит квоты на импорт с...

Alexey Kirichok ...
  • Anastasia Khakhaeva
  • Andrew Keeley
  • Andrey Kuznetsov
  • Andrey Krylov
  • Cole Akeson
  • Irina Lapshina
  • Kirill Rogachev
  • Mikhail Krasnoperov
  • Research Team
  • Svetlana Sukhanova
  • Vladimir Lezhnev

CIS Market Daily - 6 мая 2020

КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - ПОВЕСТКА ДНЯ: СТИМУЛИРОВАНИЕ ЭКОНОМИКИ, PMI, РЫНОК ТРУДА США, ЗАПАСЫ УГЛЕВОДОРОДОВВо время первомайских каникул в РФ глобальные рынки были под давлением, но вчера смогли вырасти. Индекс РТС вчера вырос на 3,1% до 1 133 пунктов, а за период каникул в целом - снизился на 1,0%. Сегодняшние индикаторы выглядят неоднозначно: фондовые индексы на подъеме, но нефть сдает позиции после роста накануне. НОВОСТИ> Норникель: слабые производственные результаты за 1К20, прогноз на 2020 год прежний> Polymetal: перспективы долгосрочного роста обозначены, целевая цена повышена на фоне ро...

Alexey Kirichok ...
  • Anastasia Khakhaeva
  • Andrew Keeley
  • Andrey Kuznetsov
  • Andrey Krylov
  • Cole Akeson
  • Irina Lapshina
  • Kirill Rogachev
  • Mikhail Krasnoperov
  • Research Team
  • Svetlana Sukhanova
  • Vladimir Lezhnev

CIS Market Daily - May 6, 2020

MARKET COMMENT - STIMULUS DEBATES, PMIS, US JOBS, CRUDE INVENTORIES ON TODAY'S AGENDAGlobal markets struggled for most of Russia's first May holiday period, but then perked up yesterday. The RTS (1,133) gained 3.1% yesterday, cutting the holiday decline to 1.0%. Morning indicators are mixed, with global stock indicators rising but oil paring earlier gains.STORIES> Nornickel 1Q20 output weak, full-year guidance intact> Polymetal: Long-term growth outlined; TP upgrade on higher gold price> Trade idea: Short Pd/long Polyus> Alrosa suspends operations at Aikhal and Zarya mines> European Commission...

Research Team

WOOD Daily: BRISA TI; EME Macro/Strategy – ESI; CPS PW; TUPRS TI; NLMK LI; OTKAR TI; SBER RX; LTS PW; YKBNK TI; AFLT RX; BELA GA; SAB1L LH; TPE PW; EVR LN; MNOD LI; KAZ LN; MBK PW; TEN PW; Rear-View Mirror; PKN PW; MOEX RX; MTSS RX; RTKM RX

HEADLINES: • Brisa: Turkish samurai (BUY - initiation of coverage) • EME Macro/Strategy: it's big • Cyfrowy Polsat: signs preliminary agreement to acquire Interia Group NEUTRAL • Tupras: suspends production at Izmir (Aliaga) Refinery • NLMK: 1Q20 results - better-than-expected FCF and dividend POSITIVE • Otokar: 1Q20 results - 7% EBITDA beat POSITIVE • Sberbank: 1Q20 financial results NEGATIVE • Lotos: massive inventory write-downs mar estimated 1Q20 results NEGATIVE • Yapi Kredi: 1Q20 highlights (beefing up on provisions) NEUTRAL • Aeroflot: RAS 1Q20 - revenues down 12% yoy vs. traffic 18...

NOVOLIPETSK STEEL OJSC sees an upgrade to Slightly Positive due to a better fundamental star rating

The general evaluation of NOVOLIPETSK STEEL OJSC (RU), a company active in the Steel industry, has been upgraded by the independent financial analyst theScreener with the addition of a star. Its fundamental valuation now shows 3 out of 4 possible stars while its market behaviour can be considered as moderately risky. theScreener believes that the additional star(s) merits the upgrade of its general evaluation to Slightly Positive. As of the analysis date May 29, 2020, the closing price was USD 19.22 and its potential was estimated at USD 20.18.

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