• TickerPLZL
  • ISINUS73181M1172
  • ExchangeLondon Stock Exchange
  • SectorMining
  • CountryRussia
Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Equity returns mixed as rebound forces weaken

EME Equity Market – June 2020 Market performance – in June, Turkish equities performed the best (+7.7%), while Hungary was the weakest (-2.2%). Following its rebound in the past couple of months, the MSCI EM Europe Index declined in June, losing 1.8% in EUR terms and 0.6% in local currency terms. Turkish equities were the best performers, with the ISE30 Index +7.7%, followed by Prague’s PX Index (+3.5%), and the WIG20 (+2.3%). After its good run in May, the Romanian BET lost 0.3% in June, while the Russian MOEX was down 2%. Greek equities declined 2.1%, while the worst-performing index was the...

Alexey Kirichok ...
  • Andrew Keeley
  • Andrey Kuznetsov
  • Andrey Gromadin
  • Anna Kotelnikova
  • Anton Stroutchenevski
  • Artem Vinogradov
  • Cole Akeson
  • Fedor Kornachev
  • Irina Lapshina
  • Kirill Rogachev
  • Research Team
  • Rodion Lomivorotov
  • Vladimir Lezhnev

CIS Market Daily - 9 июня 2020

КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - РОСТ НА РЫНКАХ АКЦИЙ, РЕЦЕССИЯ В РЕАЛЬНОЙ ЭКОНОМИКЕ И ГЕОПОЛИТИЧЕСКИЕ ДЕБАТЫИндекс РТС подрос на 0,2% - до 1 289 пунктов, хотя в течение дня трижды сбивался на локальную коррекцию. Другие рынки также завершили день в небольшом плюсе. Публикации, посвященные состоянию американской и мировой экономики, были ожидаемо негативными. Участники нефтяного рынка обсуждают решения, принятые властями Саудовской Аравии и участниками ОПЕК+. В Москве резко смягчили карантинные ограничения. Норникель во вторник проведет телефонную конференцию. Сегодня также ожидаются переговоры по ливи...

Alexey Kirichok ...
  • Irina Lapshina
  • Vladimir Lezhnev

Russian Gold Producers - Downgrade Polyus, Polymetal to HOLD; Close Polymetal Trade Idea

A wave of economic stimulus across the globe, coupled with the thus far successful lifting of lockdowns in China and the EU, has fueled a risk-on move in markets, and investors might be funding their purchases of high-beta stocks by selling gold producers. In addition to the pressure from the sliding gold price, Russian gold miners are feeling heat from the rising oil price and ruble appreciation. We think these trends will continue. We downgrade Polyus and Polymetal from BUY to HOLD and also close our trade idea to BUY Polymetal with a 40% total return.> We upgraded Polyus and Polymetal to a ...

Alexey Kirichok ...
  • Andrew Keeley
  • Andrey Kuznetsov
  • Andrey Gromadin
  • Anna Kotelnikova
  • Anton Stroutchenevski
  • Artem Vinogradov
  • Cole Akeson
  • Fedor Kornachev
  • Irina Lapshina
  • Kirill Rogachev
  • Research Team
  • Rodion Lomivorotov
  • Vladimir Lezhnev

CIS Market Daily - June 9, 2020

MARKET COMMENT - SURGING STOCKS, STRUGGLING REAL ECONOMIES, AND GEOPOLITICAL DEBATESThe RTS edged up 0.2% to nearly 1,289 yesterday after three intraday reversals. Other markets also saw muted gains. US and global macro releases were expectedly weak, and oil traders are debating Saudi and OPEC+ decisions. The easing of Moscow's lockdown, a Nornickel call, political talks regarding Libya and API inventories are among items to watch today.STORIES> GDP forecast for 2020-21 updated> Russia oil and gas: Re-rating on lower cost of capital> Downgrade Polyus, Polymetal to HOLD; close Polymetal trade i...

Alexander Golinsky ...
  • Alexey Bulgakov
  • Alexey Kirichok
  • Alisa Zakirova
  • Anton Stroutchenevski
  • Artem Vinogradov
  • Ekaterina Sidorova
  • Irina Lapshina
  • Nikolay Minko
  • Research Team
  • Rodion Lomivorotov
  • Vladimir Lezhnev

Debt Markets Today - June 2, 2020

CIS EUROBOND MARKETWith a supportive backdrop, Russian sovereign Eurobonds made gains yesterday. Long-dated issues outperformed, adding 0.4-0.6 pp, while the rest of the curve did not see notable changes.GOVERNMENT DEBTGlobal market optimism yesterday ensured a positive day on the OFZ market, with yields easing 2-5 bps along the curve. Volumes totaled R63 bln, with about half of this going through in the 10y OFZ 26228. Trading was dominated by local accounts.STORIES> Credit Bank of Moscow reports 1Q20 IFRS results> Polyus 1Q20 IFRS results; update on Covid-19 outbreak at Olimpiada> Alfa Bank's...

Alexey Kirichok ...
  • Irina Lapshina
  • Vladimir Lezhnev

Russian Gold Producers - Downgrade Polyus, Polymetal to HOLD; Close Polymetal Trade Idea

A wave of economic stimulus across the globe, coupled with the thus far successful lifting of lockdowns in China and the EU, has fueled a risk-on move in markets, and investors might be funding their purchases of high-beta stocks by selling gold producers. In addition to the pressure from the sliding gold price, Russian gold miners are feeling heat from the rising oil price and ruble appreciation. We think these trends will continue. We downgrade Polyus and Polymetal from BUY to HOLD and also close our trade idea to BUY Polymetal with a 40% total return.> We upgraded Polyus and Polymetal to a ...

BCS Equity Daily: Tatneft, Polyus, Mechel, HeadHunter, FSK, Rosseti

OPEC+ compromise, ‘U’ bets Ahead: Optimism still operative, yet checked. US-China tension remains on radar – in a tit-for-tat play, China reportedly instructed state-owned firms to pause on purchases of soybeans and pork from the US, a move that violates the ‘Phase 1’ accord and, therefore, threatens to derail the deal. However, optimism remains operative. Players appear to be more certain than not that the trough has been reached as economies re-open for business and, therefore, are intent to not miss the ride higher – ‘U’-shaped recovery expectations are gathering momentum. The bullish he...

Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Rebound continues, all indices in the black on lower volumes

EME Equity Market – May 2020 Market performance – the rebound that started in April continued across the board, with the Romanian BET Index gaining the most in EUR terms (+8.9% mom). The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 6% in EUR terms and 7.5% in local currency; while the Romania BET Index grew 8.9% in EUR terms and 9.1% in RON terms, the best performer for the month. The MOEX Index added 7.5%, while the Polish WIG20 Index was up 6.6%. The Turkish benchmark, the ISE30 Index, added 4.5%, and the Greek ASE Index gained 3.9%, while the Hungarian BUX recorded an increase of 3.7%. The weakest performer...

Andy Jones

WOOD Flash – Polyus: 1Q20 financial results – EBITDA in line, but production guidance risk

Polyus reported its 1Q20 financial results this morning (1 June). The EBITDA was 1% ahead of the Interfax consensus and the FCF was 37% above our forecast, due to lower-than-expected capex and a USD 38m working capital release. Higher gold prices were offset by much lower sales volumes (-39% qoq) and higher cash costs (+16% qoq), resulting in a 33% qoq decline in the EBITDA and a 32% drop in the FCF from the record highs of 4Q19. There was a large USD 408m net loss, due to the USD 339m loss on FX and the USD 534m loss on derivatives, but these are one-off, non-cash items, which are unlikely to...

BCS Equity Daily: MMK, Polyus, Petropavlovsk, Veon

COVID-19 hopes v headwinds Ahead: Upside bias, early on. The risk trade no doubt faces some headwinds, but the cautious hope for successful re-openings of COVID-hit economies and a vaccine appears set to govern in early trade, if only. Sentiment will be tested by a less favorable oil demand-supply outlook and the intensifying US-China joust over Hong Kong, which threatens trade deal. Following the surprise build in the API print, players will be guarded awaiting the EIA report. Also on radar, Eurozone Economic sentiment and 3 major US data points (Durable goods, GDP, Jobless claims – on the ...

BCS Fixed Income Daily: Polyus, Sberbank

‘C’-virus, Brent, Fed-speak govern Ahead: Riding wave of hope. As yesterday, Brent has regained some lost ground but this time on some encouraging projections by China on the ‘C’-virus, and rhetoric from Fed Chair Powell – in his semiannual testimony on monetary policy in Congress – offered a modicum of relief by underscoring the bank was “closely monitoring” the impact of the ‘C’-virus on the global economy, which, while saying the US economy was in a “good position”, suggested action may be taken if the economy strays from the present course. Helping sentiment further, the PBoC, which has...

BCS Fixed Income Daily: Fund Flows, Economics, Petropavlovsk, Polyus

Brent v Coronavirus contagion, frothy heights Ahead: Choppy trade in play. Déjà vu, the same variables will dictate the directions of trade, which translates into choppy waters ahead. To the upside, December industrial production accelerated strongly after almost coming to a standstill in November – BCS expects the trend to continue into 2020. Also positive, Brent has recouped some losses, albeit upside is capped by still the uncertain outlook for global growth. Indeed, players are taking a more sober view on benefits accruing from US-China/EU trade deals, while the coronavirus has further sp...

BCS Fixed Income Daily: Polyus, MTS

Deja Vu Week Ahead: Stagnant awaiting US-China progress. Markets largely ignored the toing and froing of the US-China trade spat last week, with uncertainty preventing both a larger fall and a sustained increase. Rhetoric is still mixed – optimism today can quickly become doubts tomorrow – and, until a deal is struck, the anxiety will remain, especially as pressure mounts ahead of the 15 December deadline for new US tariffs (which may ultimately be delayed). Indeed, on the international front, the slim chance of any real trade talk drivers and a shorter, traditionally quieter week in the US (...

Alexey Bulgakov ...
  • Alexey Kirichok
  • Alisa Zakirova
  • Irina Lapshina

Долговые рынки сегодня - 6 ноября 2019

РЫНОК ВНЕШНЕГО ДОЛГА СТРАН СНГНа фоне существенного роста базовых ставок на рынке российских суверенных еврооблигаций наблюдалось снижение цен, преимущественно в длинных выпусках. Слабее рынка завершили день Россия-42 и -47, просевшие соответственно на 0,9 п. п. и 1,0 п. п.ГОСУДАРСТВЕННЫЕ ЦЕННЫЕ БУМАГИДоходность ОФЗ в течение дня следовала за курсом рубля: утром она опустилась на 5-6 б. п., но позднее это снижение частично было нивелировано, и торги завершились на 1-2 б. п. ниже уровней закрытия пятницы. В ходе сессии преобладали продажи со стороны нерезидентов. Обороты составили 20 млрд руб ....

Alexander Sychev ...
  • Alexey Bulgakov
  • Alexey Kirichok
  • Alisa Zakirova
  • Anton Stroutchenevski
  • Artem Vinogradov
  • Irina Lapshina
  • Rodion Lomivorotov

Debt Markets Today - November 6, 2019

CIS EUROBOND MARKETQuotes on Russian Eurobonds fell yesterday as global benchmark yields rose. Long-dated issues were hit especially hard, the Russia 42 and 47 shedding a respective 0.9 pp and 1.0 pp. GOVERNMENT DEBTOFZ yields took their cue from the ruble early on yesterday and were down as much as 5-6 bps at one point. However, a reversal later on saw yields pare early declines and finish only 1-2 bps lower. Selling predominated among nonresidents. Trading volumes totaled R20 bln.STORIES> Russia Economic Monthly: Growth picking up> Polyus publishes 3Q19 IFRS results> DTEK Renewables places d...

Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Equity returns mixed as rebound forces weaken

EME Equity Market – June 2020 Market performance – in June, Turkish equities performed the best (+7.7%), while Hungary was the weakest (-2.2%). Following its rebound in the past couple of months, the MSCI EM Europe Index declined in June, losing 1.8% in EUR terms and 0.6% in local currency terms. Turkish equities were the best performers, with the ISE30 Index +7.7%, followed by Prague’s PX Index (+3.5%), and the WIG20 (+2.3%). After its good run in May, the Romanian BET lost 0.3% in June, while the Russian MOEX was down 2%. Greek equities declined 2.1%, while the worst-performing index was the...

Alexey Kirichok ...
  • Andrew Keeley
  • Andrey Kuznetsov
  • Andrey Gromadin
  • Anna Kotelnikova
  • Anton Stroutchenevski
  • Artem Vinogradov
  • Cole Akeson
  • Fedor Kornachev
  • Irina Lapshina
  • Kirill Rogachev
  • Research Team
  • Rodion Lomivorotov
  • Vladimir Lezhnev

CIS Market Daily - 9 июня 2020

КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - РОСТ НА РЫНКАХ АКЦИЙ, РЕЦЕССИЯ В РЕАЛЬНОЙ ЭКОНОМИКЕ И ГЕОПОЛИТИЧЕСКИЕ ДЕБАТЫИндекс РТС подрос на 0,2% - до 1 289 пунктов, хотя в течение дня трижды сбивался на локальную коррекцию. Другие рынки также завершили день в небольшом плюсе. Публикации, посвященные состоянию американской и мировой экономики, были ожидаемо негативными. Участники нефтяного рынка обсуждают решения, принятые властями Саудовской Аравии и участниками ОПЕК+. В Москве резко смягчили карантинные ограничения. Норникель во вторник проведет телефонную конференцию. Сегодня также ожидаются переговоры по ливи...

Alexey Kirichok ...
  • Andrew Keeley
  • Andrey Kuznetsov
  • Andrey Gromadin
  • Anna Kotelnikova
  • Anton Stroutchenevski
  • Artem Vinogradov
  • Cole Akeson
  • Fedor Kornachev
  • Irina Lapshina
  • Kirill Rogachev
  • Research Team
  • Rodion Lomivorotov
  • Vladimir Lezhnev

CIS Market Daily - June 9, 2020

MARKET COMMENT - SURGING STOCKS, STRUGGLING REAL ECONOMIES, AND GEOPOLITICAL DEBATESThe RTS edged up 0.2% to nearly 1,289 yesterday after three intraday reversals. Other markets also saw muted gains. US and global macro releases were expectedly weak, and oil traders are debating Saudi and OPEC+ decisions. The easing of Moscow's lockdown, a Nornickel call, political talks regarding Libya and API inventories are among items to watch today.STORIES> GDP forecast for 2020-21 updated> Russia oil and gas: Re-rating on lower cost of capital> Downgrade Polyus, Polymetal to HOLD; close Polymetal trade i...

Alexander Golinsky ...
  • Alexey Bulgakov
  • Alexey Kirichok
  • Alisa Zakirova
  • Anton Stroutchenevski
  • Artem Vinogradov
  • Ekaterina Sidorova
  • Irina Lapshina
  • Nikolay Minko
  • Research Team
  • Rodion Lomivorotov
  • Vladimir Lezhnev

Debt Markets Today - June 2, 2020

CIS EUROBOND MARKETWith a supportive backdrop, Russian sovereign Eurobonds made gains yesterday. Long-dated issues outperformed, adding 0.4-0.6 pp, while the rest of the curve did not see notable changes.GOVERNMENT DEBTGlobal market optimism yesterday ensured a positive day on the OFZ market, with yields easing 2-5 bps along the curve. Volumes totaled R63 bln, with about half of this going through in the 10y OFZ 26228. Trading was dominated by local accounts.STORIES> Credit Bank of Moscow reports 1Q20 IFRS results> Polyus 1Q20 IFRS results; update on Covid-19 outbreak at Olimpiada> Alfa Bank's...

Alexander Golinsky ...
  • Alexey Bulgakov
  • Alexey Kirichok
  • Alisa Zakirova
  • Anton Stroutchenevski
  • Artem Vinogradov
  • Ekaterina Sidorova
  • Irina Lapshina
  • Nikolay Minko
  • Research Team
  • Rodion Lomivorotov
  • Vladimir Lezhnev

Долговые рынки сегодня - 2 июня 2020

РЫНОК ВНЕШНЕГО ДОЛГА СТРАН СНГКонъюнктура глобальных рынков в понедельник способствовала росту цен российских суверенных еврооблигаций. Вновь наибольшее повышение продемонстрировали длинные выпуски (плюс 0,4-0,6 п. п.). У остальных выпусков изменения были несущественными.ГОСУДАРСТВЕННЫЕ ЦЕННЫЕ БУМАГИГлобальный оптимизм вчера привел к снижению доходности ОФЗ вдоль кривой на 2-5 б. п. Обороты составили 63 млрд руб., причем половина этой суммы пришлась на десятилетние ОФЗ-26228 (апрель 2030). В основном активность проявляли локальные инвесторы.НОВОСТИ> Московский кредитный банк опубликовал показа...

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