Sberbank Pref

  • TickerSBERP
  • ISINRU0009029557
  • ExchangeMoscow Exchange MICEX-RTS
  • SectorBanks
  • CountryRussia

BCS Equity Daily: Economics, Oil & Gas, Polymetal, Petropavlovsk, Sberbank, Halyk Bank, IT Sector, Yandex, Real Estate

IMF downgrade, US jobs weakness, COVID resurgence Ahead: Cautious trade at play. The IMF again downwardly revised its global growth forecast, projecting 2020 GDP of -4.9%, lower than the -3% predicted in April. Enthusiasm will be further tempered ahead of US jobless claims, which are expected to remain extraordinarily high, while a resurgence in confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US (as well as Germany, LatAm), linked to the reopening of businesses, is also dimming the economic recovery outlook. In turn, Brent has retreated, albeit is finding some support from US-China trade hopes. US down, A...

BCS Equity Daily: Index Alert, Transneft, Steel, Norilsk Nickel, Sberbank, Yandex, X5 Retail

Fed & COVID – Sell-off not exhausted Week Ahead: Thursday’s sell-off may suggest exuberance wearing thin. While Russia closed up shop for the holiday, following Thursday’s long overdue sell-off, European markets rose slightly on Friday. Still, room for a deeper correction remains and investors will be watching for all the usual warning signs – although another wave of COVID cases worldwide seems almost a guarantee, a second lockdown may not be, as the political will to impose restrictions again looks largely exhausted for now. Rather, economic risks may come from renewed fear among the gener...

BCS Equity Daily: Norilsk Nickel, MMK, Alrosa, Sberbank

Eyes on US Fed Ahead: Anticipatory uptick, if only – Optimism has limits. Expect a modicum of select buying the dip as well as some wading in by Fed-largess believers. Indeed, players remain generally optimistic in the prospects of a ‘U’-shaped recovery, and some Fed watchers anticipate yet more verbiage from Chair Powell to ‘do everything it takes’ to ensure stability. However, optimism has its limits – a dour tone from Powell on the outlook for US and global growth and/or an inadequate response to combatting the COVID-triggered economic downtown would sour the risk trade. US, Asia mixe...

BCS Equity Daily: Economics, Oil producers, Tatneft, Steel, Alrosa, Sberbank, Aeroflot

‘U-V’ Recovery, $43 Brent Week Ahead: Riding momentum, OPEC+ … for now. Still operative, rising speculation that a ‘U’-shaped economic recovery is increasingly feasible as quarantined economies re-open – even a ‘V’-recovery has re-entered the dialogue, supported by the surprise surge in the US jobs report. Also, the arguably improving demand outlook (e.g., China’s crude imports hit an all-time high in May) together with the agreement of OPEC+ to extend the current record level cut in output to end-July (cuts will be reviewed on a monthly basis) is playing to the bulls, sending risk appetite...

BCS Equity Daily: Fund Flows, LUKOIL, Norilsk Nickel, Mechel, Alrosa, Sberbank, Sistema, Rushydro, X5 Retail Group

Recovery, OPEC+ hopes, ECB ‘600’ Ahead: Tempered into the weekend. The ‘Russia trade’ appears ripe for some bargain hunting after the kneejerk Norilsk-led selloff yesterday. Indeed, the economic ‘reopening’ card is still at play and, bolstering risk appetite, OPEC+ appears set to meet on 6-7 June to discuss extending current record-level cuts beyond June – easing some angst as the meet had been expected to held yesterday, but was delayed due to commitment issues, which thus far remain. Also to the upside, the ECB – joining the ranks of other central banks that of late have offered up massiv...

BCS Equity Daily: Economics, Oil & Gas, Polymetal, Petropavlovsk, Sberbank, Halyk Bank, IT Sector, Yandex, Real Estate

IMF downgrade, US jobs weakness, COVID resurgence Ahead: Cautious trade at play. The IMF again downwardly revised its global growth forecast, projecting 2020 GDP of -4.9%, lower than the -3% predicted in April. Enthusiasm will be further tempered ahead of US jobless claims, which are expected to remain extraordinarily high, while a resurgence in confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US (as well as Germany, LatAm), linked to the reopening of businesses, is also dimming the economic recovery outlook. In turn, Brent has retreated, albeit is finding some support from US-China trade hopes. US down, A...

BCS Equity Daily: Index Alert, Transneft, Steel, Norilsk Nickel, Sberbank, Yandex, X5 Retail

Fed & COVID – Sell-off not exhausted Week Ahead: Thursday’s sell-off may suggest exuberance wearing thin. While Russia closed up shop for the holiday, following Thursday’s long overdue sell-off, European markets rose slightly on Friday. Still, room for a deeper correction remains and investors will be watching for all the usual warning signs – although another wave of COVID cases worldwide seems almost a guarantee, a second lockdown may not be, as the political will to impose restrictions again looks largely exhausted for now. Rather, economic risks may come from renewed fear among the gener...

BCS Equity Daily: Norilsk Nickel, MMK, Alrosa, Sberbank

Eyes on US Fed Ahead: Anticipatory uptick, if only – Optimism has limits. Expect a modicum of select buying the dip as well as some wading in by Fed-largess believers. Indeed, players remain generally optimistic in the prospects of a ‘U’-shaped recovery, and some Fed watchers anticipate yet more verbiage from Chair Powell to ‘do everything it takes’ to ensure stability. However, optimism has its limits – a dour tone from Powell on the outlook for US and global growth and/or an inadequate response to combatting the COVID-triggered economic downtown would sour the risk trade. US, Asia mixe...

BCS Equity Daily: Economics, Oil producers, Tatneft, Steel, Alrosa, Sberbank, Aeroflot

‘U-V’ Recovery, $43 Brent Week Ahead: Riding momentum, OPEC+ … for now. Still operative, rising speculation that a ‘U’-shaped economic recovery is increasingly feasible as quarantined economies re-open – even a ‘V’-recovery has re-entered the dialogue, supported by the surprise surge in the US jobs report. Also, the arguably improving demand outlook (e.g., China’s crude imports hit an all-time high in May) together with the agreement of OPEC+ to extend the current record level cut in output to end-July (cuts will be reviewed on a monthly basis) is playing to the bulls, sending risk appetite...

BCS Equity Daily: Fund Flows, LUKOIL, Norilsk Nickel, Mechel, Alrosa, Sberbank, Sistema, Rushydro, X5 Retail Group

Recovery, OPEC+ hopes, ECB ‘600’ Ahead: Tempered into the weekend. The ‘Russia trade’ appears ripe for some bargain hunting after the kneejerk Norilsk-led selloff yesterday. Indeed, the economic ‘reopening’ card is still at play and, bolstering risk appetite, OPEC+ appears set to meet on 6-7 June to discuss extending current record-level cuts beyond June – easing some angst as the meet had been expected to held yesterday, but was delayed due to commitment issues, which thus far remain. Also to the upside, the ECB – joining the ranks of other central banks that of late have offered up massiv...

BCS Fixed Income Daily: Polyus, Sberbank

‘C’-virus, Brent, Fed-speak govern Ahead: Riding wave of hope. As yesterday, Brent has regained some lost ground but this time on some encouraging projections by China on the ‘C’-virus, and rhetoric from Fed Chair Powell – in his semiannual testimony on monetary policy in Congress – offered a modicum of relief by underscoring the bank was “closely monitoring” the impact of the ‘C’-virus on the global economy, which, while saying the US economy was in a “good position”, suggested action may be taken if the economy strays from the present course. Helping sentiment further, the PBoC, which has...

BCS Fixed Income Daily: Sberbank

Hope for tariff delay, Fed speak encourage Ahead: UK election next in line. If yesterday’s growth was a sign that investors are beginning to price in a delay to the 15 December US tariffs, then the gains might keep coming. Indeed, if the UK general election goes as markets expect today – a Tory majority – another risk will have been removed from the table (at least for now; a messy no-deal Brexit is in fact more likely in the L-T with such an outcome, but markets seem oblivious). That said, even a surprise on that front might do little to change the tide – only confirmation that tariffs will ...

BCS Fixed Income Daily: Sberbank

China trade/yuan vs sub-$58 Brent Ahead: Buying weakness, cautiously. China exports rose 3.3% y/y in July vs the projected 2% decline and imports declined less than expected, suggesting some resilience to US-China tariff war. Also soothing fears of a global currency war, the PBoC limited the fall in the yuan. Still, with the yuan at 7+, Chinese exports are less expensive, giving Beijing a trade advantage. Markets will be pensive, awaiting a response from the Trump camp. Brent remains under pressure, trading sub-$58 on demand concerns and a bearish DOE report. As noted before, the silver lini...

BCS Fixed Income Daily: Sberbank

$64+ Brent v Fed disappoint Ahead: Pricing in ‘no free lunch’. The US Fed delivered … and disappointed, the latter being the more important dynamic. The former featured a rate cut by the expected 25bps; the latter saw the Fed wax more hawkish on the number and pace of cuts later this and next year. With the Fed telegraphing less-than-hoped for largess, which is widely seen a requisite to keep global growth steady, players will take pause. Against this backdrop, the importance of economic fundamentals will return to the fore – today, players will be swayed by key data points out of China (Man...

BCS Fixed Income Daily: Fund Flows, Economics, Sberbank

Putin-Xi strike $20bn in deals; Brent rises on trade, central bank doves Ahead: Digesting trade dynamics. The $20bn in strategic deals agreed by Russia and China and their target to increase bilateral trade to $200bn per year (vs $108bn in 2018) cut both ways – they would offer an economic boost to each party, which, in turn, could embolden China to harden its negotiating position vis-à-vis the US, suggesting a prolongation of the US-China trade war. Rising Brent, headlines that the US may delay levying tariffs on Mexico, expectations that OPEC+ will extend cuts and the recent cooing by key ...

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