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Stock Smart Weekly (May 16,2025)

Market regained momentum after a ceasefire agreement between Pakistan and India on May 10th, 2025, brokered through U.S. mediation. This development eased geopolitical tensions and helped stabilize investor sentiment following a week of heightened volatility. On the first trading day of the week, the benchmark KSE-100 index surged by 10,123pts— the highest single-day gain in point terms. Investor confidence was further reinforced by the International Monetary Fund’s approval and disbursement of US$1bn tranche under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program and approval of an additional arrangement for the US$1.4bn under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). As a result, the KSE-100 index closed the week at 119,649 points, recording a weekly gain of 12,474pts, up 11.64%WoW. On the macroeconomic front, workers’ remittances stood at US$3.2bn, resulting in a current account surplus of US$12mn during Apr’25. Alongside, Net FDI for Apr’25 was reported at US$141mn. SBP held FX reserves increased by US$71mn WoW, ending the week at US$10.4bn as of Apr 9th, 2025. Moreover, ADTV. remained higher, up by 34.8%WoW, clocking in at 685mn shares, compared to 508bn shares traded in the earlier week.
On the currency front, PkR remained flat against the greenback throughout the week, closing the week at 281.66 PkR/US$. Other major news flow during the week included, 1) Govt proposes up to 10% tax cut for salaried class, 2) Pakistan, Russia aim to set up steel mill, 3) IFEM on petrol, diesel hiked by PkR1.87/ltr, 4) PM Shehbaz sets up panel for petroleum sector reforms, and 5) Pakistan, India talks in Saudi Arabia likely. Sector-wise, Vanaspati & Allied Industries, Transport, Refinery, Woollen and Inv.Banks/Inv.cos/Securities.cos were amongst the top performers, up 34.2%/29.4%/27.5%/20.7%/19.8%WoW. On the other hand, Textile Spinning and Jute were amongst the worst performers with a decline of 9.5%/4.8%WoW, respectively. Flow wise, major net selling was recorded by Banks/DFIs with a net sell of US$20.6mn respectively. On the other hand, Mutual Funds absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$39.2mn. Company-wise, top performers during the week were, 1) AGL (up 33.7%WoW), 2) FCEPL (up 32.5%WoW), 3) PTC (up 29.5%WoW), 4) ATRL (up 27.1%WoW) and 5) SEARL (up 26.6%WoW), while top laggards were, 1) PKGP (down 2.6%WoW), 2) IBFL (down 2.5%WoW), 3) NESTLE (down 0.4%WoW), and 4) PGLC (down 0.2%WoW).


Market is expected to remain positive in the coming weeks, with the recent announcement of a ceasefire and US$1bn tranche disbursement from IMF will serve to be key triggers for momentum. The KSE100 is anticipated to sustain its upward trajectory, with a target of 165,215 points by Dec’25, primarily driven by strong earnings in fertilizers, sustained ROEs in banks, and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefiting from falling interest rates and economic stability. Our top pick includes, OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, MEBL, MCB, HBL, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, and SYS.