AKD Securities Limited

AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the leading securities firm in Pakistan, providing a comprehensive range of investor focused services, including equity brokerage, economic and securities research, investment banking and financial advisory services. AKD Securities accounts for more than 6% of the average daily value of the Karachi Stock Exchange. AKD Securities was the first brokerage house to launch an online trading platform in Pakistan in November 2002 and now has the largest market share with over 6000 customers. This has helped diversify and expand the retail investor base in the country and ushered in a whole new universe of investors to the stock market.

AKD Securities Ltd. caters to a diversified group of domestic and international institutional investors, high net worth individuals and upscale retail clients, including expatriate Pakistanis. With high quality research, unparalleled execution and distribution capability for both regular and large block trades, AKD Securities Ltd. has earned an outstanding reputation in the Pakistani securities industry.Outside of commercial banks, AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the biggest capital market firms in the country. AKD Securities is the leader in raising and providing risk capital in underwriting, market making and mergers and acquisitions in Pakistan. Good corporate governance and professionalism are emphasized throughout the firm and AKD Securities Ltd. is amongst the very few companies to have introduced a firm-wide comprehensive CODE of ETHICS, overseen by an independent compliance manager.Ultimately, our success is based on the quality of service we provide to our customers and the trust and confidence reposed in us by them. Our focus, therefore, remains on customer satisfaction at all levels in the company.

Taimur Afzal
  • Taimur Afzal

FFC_CY22 Analyst Briefing Takeaways,(AKD Off the Analyst's Desk Feb 07...

AKD, Off the Analyst's Desk FFC: CY22 Analyst Briefing Takeaways   Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) held its analyst briefing today, where it apprised investors on the year ended Dec’22 along with its future outlook. The company posted unconsolidated earnings of PkR20.0bn in CY22, culminating into an EPS of PkR15.8. While on the consolidated basis, earnings for the year amounted to PkR33.7bn (EPS: PkR27.0) in CY22.   Offtakes for the company clocked in at 2,423k tons for Urea and 70k tons ...

Kamal Ahmed
  • Kamal Ahmed

KSE-100_Bullish session amidst good volumes, (AKD Technical Daily Feb ...

AKD Daily Technical    KSE-100: Bullish session amidst good volumes   Market View — Technical The index opened amid runaway gap and remained bullish throughout the last trading session. The local bourse posted an intraday high of 831pts and concluded with a gain of 720pts to settle at 41,191pts. The volumes clocked in the last trading session were comparatively higher than the previous trading session. Among the strength indicators, RSI (Relative Strength Index) has just reached its highest...

Taimur Afzal
  • Taimur Afzal

EFERT & MCB CY22E Result Previews, (AKD Daily, Feb 07, 2023)

AKD Daily MCB & EFERT CY22E Result Previews   EFERT – 4QCY22 earnings to clock in at PkR3.5/sh: We expect Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT) to post a NPAT of PkR4.6bn (EPS: PkR3.5) in 4QCY22, taking total earnings for CY22 to PkR14.6bn. This culminates into a decline of 31%YoY, mainly on the back of higher taxation owing to the Supertax applicable in CY22, while earnings for the final quarter of the year show an improvement of 10%QoQ as offtakes for the quarter rose, boosting revenue by 28% w...

Muhammad Ali
  • Muhammad Ali

Pakistan OMCs_POL sales down by 20%YoY in Jan’23, (AKD Daily, Feb 06, ...

AKD Daily   Pakistan OMCs: POL sales down by 20%YoY in Jan’23,   POL product sales clocked in at 1.44mn tons for Jan’23, changing by +8%/-20% on MoM/YoY basis, compared to 1.34/1.8mn tons during Dec’22/ Jan’22. This marks the second consecutive month with petroleum sales below 1.5mn tons. Although, there is a slight recovery on a monthly basis (up 8% MoM) due to rumors of a potential price hike, which may have prompted some hoarding. Company wise, major players in the sector, PSO/APL/...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Stock Smart Weekly (Feb 03, 2023)

StockSmart                             Weekly Review                                 KSE-100 index witnessed a volatile session mainly attributable to ongoing talks with IMF to ensure its prerequisite conditions are implemented which includes high circular debt which is hovering around PkR2.5trn for power sector and PkR1.6trn for Gas sector while restricting subsidies only to vulnerable domestic consumers. Furthermore the lender has also demanded political consensus given that opposition mig...

Taimur Afzal
  • Taimur Afzal

FFC_CY22 Analyst Briefing Takeaways,(AKD Off the Analyst's Desk Feb 07...

AKD, Off the Analyst's Desk FFC: CY22 Analyst Briefing Takeaways   Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) held its analyst briefing today, where it apprised investors on the year ended Dec’22 along with its future outlook. The company posted unconsolidated earnings of PkR20.0bn in CY22, culminating into an EPS of PkR15.8. While on the consolidated basis, earnings for the year amounted to PkR33.7bn (EPS: PkR27.0) in CY22.   Offtakes for the company clocked in at 2,423k tons for Urea and 70k tons ...

Kamal Ahmed
  • Kamal Ahmed

KSE-100_Bullish session amidst good volumes, (AKD Technical Daily Feb ...

AKD Daily Technical    KSE-100: Bullish session amidst good volumes   Market View — Technical The index opened amid runaway gap and remained bullish throughout the last trading session. The local bourse posted an intraday high of 831pts and concluded with a gain of 720pts to settle at 41,191pts. The volumes clocked in the last trading session were comparatively higher than the previous trading session. Among the strength indicators, RSI (Relative Strength Index) has just reached its highest...

Taimur Afzal
  • Taimur Afzal

EFERT & MCB CY22E Result Previews, (AKD Daily, Feb 07, 2023)

AKD Daily MCB & EFERT CY22E Result Previews   EFERT – 4QCY22 earnings to clock in at PkR3.5/sh: We expect Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT) to post a NPAT of PkR4.6bn (EPS: PkR3.5) in 4QCY22, taking total earnings for CY22 to PkR14.6bn. This culminates into a decline of 31%YoY, mainly on the back of higher taxation owing to the Supertax applicable in CY22, while earnings for the final quarter of the year show an improvement of 10%QoQ as offtakes for the quarter rose, boosting revenue by 28% w...

Muhammad Ali
  • Muhammad Ali

Pakistan OMCs_POL sales down by 20%YoY in Jan’23, (AKD Daily, Feb 06, ...

AKD Daily   Pakistan OMCs: POL sales down by 20%YoY in Jan’23,   POL product sales clocked in at 1.44mn tons for Jan’23, changing by +8%/-20% on MoM/YoY basis, compared to 1.34/1.8mn tons during Dec’22/ Jan’22. This marks the second consecutive month with petroleum sales below 1.5mn tons. Although, there is a slight recovery on a monthly basis (up 8% MoM) due to rumors of a potential price hike, which may have prompted some hoarding. Company wise, major players in the sector, PSO/APL/...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Stock Smart Weekly (Feb 03, 2023)

StockSmart                             Weekly Review                                 KSE-100 index witnessed a volatile session mainly attributable to ongoing talks with IMF to ensure its prerequisite conditions are implemented which includes high circular debt which is hovering around PkR2.5trn for power sector and PkR1.6trn for Gas sector while restricting subsidies only to vulnerable domestic consumers. Furthermore the lender has also demanded political consensus given that opposition mig...

Pakistan Economy_MPC faces a tough choice, expect 50bps rate cut , (AK...

The MPC of the SBP - scheduled to meet on Friday, 15th May 2020 – faces a dilemma, with a need to strike balance between providing immediate relief to the economy and preserving macro stability over the medium term. On one hand, the inflationary backdrop is benign (~6.8%YoY over the next six months), with corona induced decline in consumption and consequently commodity prices, along with scrapping of utility adjustments, translating into steep decline in inflation readings. This coupled with...

Pakistan Economy: Current Account gives a green light to Macro Consoli...

Latest SBP data on external account show marked improvement in the current account balance, with the country running a current account surplus of US$99mn in Oct’19 after 49months compared to CAD of US$284mn in the preceding month and US$1,280mn in Oct’18. Encouragingly, unlike the past few months where YoY deficit reduction was primarily import led, the Oct’19 improvement in current account balance was driven both by i) export growth (+10%YoY) and ii) import contraction (-21%YoY). While th...

Shahrukh Saleem
  • Shahrukh Saleem

Pakistan OMCs: Much ado about margins,(AKD Daily, Nov 11, 2019)

After a delay of five months, Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) finally accorded approval to revision in OMC margins, setting them at PkR2.81/liter for MS and HSD for rest of FY20 (effective Dec’19) — increasing by 6.4%. Margin revision did not compensate OMCs for the delay where we had already incorporated margins of PkR2.77/liter for FY20 vs. now applicable weighted average margins of PkR2.74 resting lower than our estimates, pruning earnings of PSO/APL by 1.5/1% (avg. FY20-22). Though...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

AKD STOCK SMART, Nov 08, 2019

Index continued the momentum gained towards the end of last week and started the week on a strong footing, increasing by ~900 points in first trading session, supported by declining yields in the PIB auction held last week while additional stimulus was provided by easing tensions on the political front between government and opposition. Moreover, encouraging numbers clocked in for external account which provided further support. The enthusiasm based on aforesaid factors was carried for the whole...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Pakistan Strategy: Risk appetite, not fundamentals driving performance...

Confronting a slew of macro, peripheral and political shocks to continue its climb, the KSE-100 index has risen 4% during the last five trading sessions taking returns from Aug’16 (CYTD low) onward to 24% Isolating sectoral performance CYTD we highlight the role of side-stocks and sectoral plays in driving market performance, where further comparison to CYTD market low (Aug 16th) highlights the role played by off-board sectors (Refinery/Transport/Sugar were up 50/32/15%) favored by retail in...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Pakistan Oil & Gas_Has the crude oil weakness ended, (AKD Daily, Dec 1...

Has the crude oil weakness ended?Brent oil prices have been on a downward trend since the beginning of this month, with the active future falling by as much as 10.9% to reach a low of US$76.10/bbl in the month, reached on December 09, 2022.  Brent prices have rebounded since then by 6.0%, with the recent strength driven by US CPI data leading to expectations of a slowdown in the pace of tightening in the benchmark rates. To note, Nov’22 CPI clocked in at 7.1% in the US, compared to the earlier ...

Kamal Ahmed
  • Kamal Ahmed

KSE-100_Short term recovery expected, (AKD Technical Daily Dec 14 2022...

KSE-100: Short term recovery expected Market View — Technical The index opened on a slightly negative note and faced a volatile session. The local bourse posted an intraday high of 232pts, a low of 28pts and concluded with a gain of 174pts to settle at 41,714pts. The volumes clocked in the last trading session were comparatively higher than the previous trading session. Among the strength indicators, RSI (Relative Strength Index) and stochastics seem to improve which cement a positive view in n...

Taimur Afzal
  • Taimur Afzal

Pakistan Autos_PSMC leading the way, (AKD Daily, Dec 13, 2022)

AKD Daily Pakistan Autos: PSMC leading the way, (AKD Daily, Dec 13, 2022) The total industry sales in Nov’22 clocked in at 19,973 vehicles (-16%YoY/+27%MoM), consisting of 15,444 passenger cars (+1%YoY/+39%MoM), 2,947 LCVs (-12%YoY/+24%MoM), 296 trucks (-40%YoY/+15%MoM) and 46 buses (+15%YoY/-33%MoM). Sales in the month have recovered from October, owing to better inventory management by OEMs along with the low-base effect from last month. Segment-wise, the 1000cc segment emerged as the l...

Kamal Ahmed
  • Kamal Ahmed

KSE-100_Lackluster activity witnessed,(AKD Technical Daily Dec 13 2022...

KSE-100: Lackluster activity witnessed Market View — Technical The index opened on a slightly positive note and another lackluster activity witnessed. The local bourse posted an intraday high of 86pts, a low of 191pts and concluded with a loss of 158pts to settle at 41,541pts. The volumes clocked in the last trading session were comparatively lower than the previous trading session. During the past 10 trading sessions, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black can...

Muhammad Ali
  • Muhammad Ali

Pakistan Steel_Steel recovers amid Chinese re-emergence ,(AKD Daily, D...

Steel recovers amid Chinese re-emergenceInternational scrap prices have shown major weakness since peaking in mid-April’22, declining by 39% since then, to currently hover around ~US$385/ton compared to FYTD/ CYTD avg. of US$373/447/ton CRC-HRC spreads have long contracted from their super-cycle highs of US$145/ton, down 58% from the said peaks, now currently trading at US$61/ton More specifically, Vietnamese hot rolled coil index saw price gains, with the last traded price standing at US$565...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

HBL_Attractive valuations call for accumulation

HBL's 1HCY17 earnings were down 3%YoY on spread compression, credit quality infection an higher expenses (tax and otherwise). Pick up in advances was the key highlight where materialization of CPEC investments led 11.2%YoY growth in loans. Corporate book continues to form the major chunk, however HBL is also keenly building on its consumer portfolio which while accretive to margins can lead to higher domestic NPLs. This together with continued pressure on NIMs at least until CY18F when interest ...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

ENGRO_1HCY17 Analyst Briefing Notes

ENGRO held its analyst briefing on Friday (Aug 18'17) to discuss its 1HCY17 earnings performance. To recall, ENGRO announced consolidated/unconsolidated NPAT of PkR3.78bn/PkR4.10bn (EPS: PkR7.21/PkR7.84) in 1HCY17, down 32%YoY/79%YoY. Key highlights of 1HCY17 consolidated result included: 1) weakening topline (down 22%YoY) due to classification of EFOODS as associates (post its partial divestment) despite 23%YoY/17% jump in EFERT/EPCL topline and 2) significantly higher effective tax rate of 64%...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

NML_Fundamentals remain intact

​Based on its continued focus on value added segment and higher expected payout from portfolio companies, NML (TP: PkR185.3/sh, upside: 23.7%) remains our preferred play in the sector. Benefitting from its garment capacity expansion, NML registered 38%YoY sales growth in garment segment in 9MFY17, where we expect this trend to continue and support topline growth (FY18F: 11%YoY) despite declining trend in non-value added sales. In addition, textile export package (FY17/FY18F incremental EPS: Pk...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Budget FY18_Proposals and Implications

​The incumbent government is due to present its last federal budget on May 26'17 where we expect the government to move ahead with its growth agenda. Setting an ambitious GDP growth target of 6% in FY18F, the GoP is likely to enhance its development expenditure primarily making its case on uptick in CPEC led activity, with news flows suggesting federal PSDP allocation at PkR1,001bn vs. PkR800bn in FY17B. However, fiscal constraints will remain in play where higher tax collection is likely to b...

Pakistan Oil & Gas_Cracks holding steady on hope of sustained rebound ...

AKD Daily Pakistan Oil & Gas: Cracks holding steady on hope of sustained rebound POL product cracks for second-half Nov’20 (11 trading days 12-26th) remained sticky - particularly for HSD (largest refining segment, 46%/44% of 1QFY21/FY20 output), despite underlying crude benchmarks inching higher (Arab Light during the period average at US$44.3/bbl up 14.1% over previous 14 days) fueled by COVID-19 vaccine efficacy and expectations of fiscal stimulus. HSD crack to Arab Light averaged US$+2...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Pakistan Commodities_Quick to celebrate the end of COVID-19, (AKD Dail...

AKD Daily Pakistan Commodities: Quick to celebrate the end of COVID-19 Investors strengthened bullish outlooks following robust COVID-19 vaccines efficacy data, reduced global political uncertainty fueling expectations of continued stimulus in developed markets and Asian economies resuming industrial production activity driving the TRJ commodity index higher by 10.6%MoM. The pace of industrial growth broadly hastened Nov’20, as highlighted by both global and economy specific PMIs for manufa...

Shahrukh Saleem
  • Shahrukh Saleem

Pakistan Cement_Seasonality weighs heavily on local demand, (AKD Daily...

AKD Daily Pakistan Cement: Seasonality weighs heavily on local demand Local cement dispatches continue to increase with a 6%YoY growth in Nov’20 where South continues to lead (up 15%YoY for Nov’20) amidst a multitude of factors are at play including increasing demand in urban centers on the back of resumption in housing projects and North-based players decreasing their supply to the region. However, significant sequential decline was witnessed in dispatches of both the regions (South/North ...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Stock Smart Weekly (Dec 04, 2020)

StockSmart                        Weekly Review                                 The KSE-100 remained buoyant during the outgoing week, where tough measures for containing COVID-19 cases taken the previous week, as well as potential measures to revitalize the IMF program already forgotten by the investors. The exuberance was majorly led by GoP reportedly budgeting US$150mn for procurement of vaccines by 1QCY21. The inflation reading at 8.35% was up by 0.82ppt MoM, where Pakistan now has a nega...

HUBC_Base plant up for sale; Buy stance maintained, (AKD Daily, Dec 04...

AKD Daily HUBC: Base plant up for sale; Buy stance maintained HUBC’s management has reportedly proposed GoP to buy its base plant at a transaction price of PkR65bn (PkR50/sh). While we ignore the reported book value on unconsolidated basis, summing the PV of future cashflows from base plant, net receivables and plant’s value as reported in Jun’20 financial statements, the 1,200MW Base plant should be valued at PkR91/sh, in our view. We believe the management proposed a lower value for the s...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Pakistan Strategy_MSCI Review_Back to Frontier Market, (AKD Daily, Sep...

AKD Daily Pakistan Strategy: MSCI Review - Back to Frontier Market A move that was widely anticipated, MSCI has officially downgraded Pakistan from MSCI EM index to MSCI FM index, thus bringing an end to country’s 4yr long stay in the EM index. The decision was announced in the early morning hours and followed feedback received from market participants over reclassification. The transition from EM to FM index will be a one step  process and will coincide with Nov’21 Semi-Annual Index Review...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Pakistan Strategy_Aug'21_Market review and Outlook, (AKD Daily, Sep 01...

AKD Dail Pakistan Strategy_Aug’21_Market review and Outlook Market continued to remain jittery throughout Aug’21, returning 0.6%MoM, as the concerns related to political turmoil in Afghanistan, 4th wave of COVID-19 and rapid currency depreciation (4.4%MoM) spoiled the investors’ sentiments. Market participation also eased off during the month as ADT clocked in at 523mn (down 11%MoM) while ADTV for the month improved slightly (1%MoM) to clock in at PkR47.4bn. Foreign selling continued unab...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Pakistan Economy_Aug'21 inflation to clock in at 8.35%YoY, (AKD Daily,...

AKD Daily Pakistan Economy_Aug’21 inflation to clock in at 8.35%YoY Inflation for Aug’21 is likely to clock in at 8.35%YoY compared to 8.40%YoY in Jul’21. On a monthly basis, inflation is likely to stand at +0.58%MoM (Urban/Rural: 0.53%MoM/0.67%MoM) as build up in prices across all segments was partially countered by flattish food inflation (down 0.08%MoM vis-à-vis 1.74%MoM uptick in Jul’21 partly attributable to seasonal factors). Inflation for FY22 is expected to be recorded at 8.1% where...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Pakistan Economy_FY21 ends with fiscal deficit at 7.1%, (AKD Daily, Au...

AKD Daily Pakistan Economy: FY21 ends with fiscal deficit at 7.1% In the latest fiscal accounts, FY21 ended with a fiscal deficit of 7.1% compared to 8.0% in FY20 while primary balance exhibited a larger than expected deficit of 1.4% (Govt. estimated 1.1% primary deficit in budget documents) in contrast to 1.8% in the same period last year. The larger primary deficit was driven by 4QFY21 deficit of 2.3% was due to, i) fall-through of 40.4% of annual defence spending in the last quarter, ii...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Stock Smart Weekly (Aug 27, 2021)

StockSmart                        Weekly Review                                 KSE-100 remained under pressure during the week, apart from Monday, where the benchmark index crossed the much anticipated barrier of 48,000pts to close at 48,112pts (+512ptsDoD) but the weak sentiment of the market coupled with incessant PkR/USD depreciation (+0.9%WoW), geopolitical tensions in the region and uncertainty over talks with IMF continued to derail investor confidence during the rest of the week. The ...

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