AKD Securities Limited

AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the leading securities firm in Pakistan, providing a comprehensive range of investor focused services, including equity brokerage, economic and securities research, investment banking and financial advisory services. AKD Securities accounts for more than 6% of the average daily value of the Karachi Stock Exchange. AKD Securities was the first brokerage house to launch an online trading platform in Pakistan in November 2002 and now has the largest market share with over 6000 customers. This has helped diversify and expand the retail investor base in the country and ushered in a whole new universe of investors to the stock market.

AKD Securities Ltd. caters to a diversified group of domestic and international institutional investors, high net worth individuals and upscale retail clients, including expatriate Pakistanis. With high quality research, unparalleled execution and distribution capability for both regular and large block trades, AKD Securities Ltd. has earned an outstanding reputation in the Pakistani securities industry.Outside of commercial banks, AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the biggest capital market firms in the country. AKD Securities is the leader in raising and providing risk capital in underwriting, market making and mergers and acquisitions in Pakistan. Good corporate governance and professionalism are emphasized throughout the firm and AKD Securities Ltd. is amongst the very few companies to have introduced a firm-wide comprehensive CODE of ETHICS, overseen by an independent compliance manager.Ultimately, our success is based on the quality of service we provide to our customers and the trust and confidence reposed in us by them. Our focus, therefore, remains on customer satisfaction at all levels in the company.

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Pakistan Economy_Import bans_A band aid instead of surgery!, (AKD Dail...

Import bans: A band aid instead of surgery! Yesterday, the federal government announced the of banning various luxury import items such as mobile phones, cars, home appliances and various other food and daily use items, in order to contain the import bill, however, no decision has yet been taken to roll back subsidy program on the consumption of fuel.As per our estimates, only about 4 - 5% of import bill (based on FY21 trade numbers) will be affected by these duties and the underlying issues in...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

KSE-100_Inches down amidst low volumes ,(AKD Technical Daily May 20, 2...

AKD Daily Technicals KSE-100: Inches down amidst low volumes The index opened on a slightly negative note and remained volatile throughout the last trading session. The local bourse posted an intraday high of 232pts, a low of 88pts and concluded with a loss of 43pts to settle at 42,983pts level. A lackluster activity witnessed amidst low volumes in comparison of previous trading session. The Index is currently trading below short term moving averages on daily chart. The volume indicators ref...

Shahrukh Saleem
  • Shahrukh Saleem

Pakistan Refinery_Refinery margins continue to surge, (AKD Daily, May ...

AKD Daily Pakistan Refinery: Refinery margins continue to surge Despite Arab Light remaining flat (USD112.98/bbl currently against USD112.82/bbl for last fifteen days), price of diesel and petrol surged by 1.5% and 4.5%, respectively due to continued increase in demand with supply struggling to catch up in the wake of Russia-Ukraine conflict majorly. Local refiners are also reaping benefits of the aforementioned global supply crunch with cracks for diesel/petrol standing at USD38/15/bbl c...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

KSE-100_Faces a bullish session, (AKD Technical Daily May 19, 2022)

AKD Daily Technicals KSE-100: Faces a bullish session The index opened on a positive note and remained volatile throughout the last trading session. The local bourse posted an intraday high of 435pts, a low of 218pts and concluded with a gain of 301pts to settle at 43,027pts level. Currently the MACD is bearish since it is trading below its signal line. The MACD crossed below its signal line 11 trading sessions ago. Since the MACD crossed its moving average, the local bourse has decreased 6....

Jehanzaib Zafar
  • Jehanzaib Zafar

Pakistan Economy_MPS_Expect a 150bps hike

MPS: Expect a 150bps hike SBP announced its half-yearly schedule of Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings where the next meeting is scheduled on May 23rd, 2022. We expect the central bank to increase the benchmark interest rates by another 150bps to 13.75%, the highest it has been in over a decade. Owing to the current commodity super cycle and questionable resource management, the country is experiencing soaring trade deficit which is depleting the import cover and thus putting pressure on...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Pakistan Economy_Import bans_A band aid instead of surgery!, (AKD Dail...

Import bans: A band aid instead of surgery! Yesterday, the federal government announced the of banning various luxury import items such as mobile phones, cars, home appliances and various other food and daily use items, in order to contain the import bill, however, no decision has yet been taken to roll back subsidy program on the consumption of fuel.As per our estimates, only about 4 - 5% of import bill (based on FY21 trade numbers) will be affected by these duties and the underlying issues in...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

KSE-100_Inches down amidst low volumes ,(AKD Technical Daily May 20, 2...

AKD Daily Technicals KSE-100: Inches down amidst low volumes The index opened on a slightly negative note and remained volatile throughout the last trading session. The local bourse posted an intraday high of 232pts, a low of 88pts and concluded with a loss of 43pts to settle at 42,983pts level. A lackluster activity witnessed amidst low volumes in comparison of previous trading session. The Index is currently trading below short term moving averages on daily chart. The volume indicators ref...

Shahrukh Saleem
  • Shahrukh Saleem

Pakistan Refinery_Refinery margins continue to surge, (AKD Daily, May ...

AKD Daily Pakistan Refinery: Refinery margins continue to surge Despite Arab Light remaining flat (USD112.98/bbl currently against USD112.82/bbl for last fifteen days), price of diesel and petrol surged by 1.5% and 4.5%, respectively due to continued increase in demand with supply struggling to catch up in the wake of Russia-Ukraine conflict majorly. Local refiners are also reaping benefits of the aforementioned global supply crunch with cracks for diesel/petrol standing at USD38/15/bbl c...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

KSE-100_Faces a bullish session, (AKD Technical Daily May 19, 2022)

AKD Daily Technicals KSE-100: Faces a bullish session The index opened on a positive note and remained volatile throughout the last trading session. The local bourse posted an intraday high of 435pts, a low of 218pts and concluded with a gain of 301pts to settle at 43,027pts level. Currently the MACD is bearish since it is trading below its signal line. The MACD crossed below its signal line 11 trading sessions ago. Since the MACD crossed its moving average, the local bourse has decreased 6....

Jehanzaib Zafar
  • Jehanzaib Zafar

Pakistan Economy_MPS_Expect a 150bps hike

MPS: Expect a 150bps hike SBP announced its half-yearly schedule of Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings where the next meeting is scheduled on May 23rd, 2022. We expect the central bank to increase the benchmark interest rates by another 150bps to 13.75%, the highest it has been in over a decade. Owing to the current commodity super cycle and questionable resource management, the country is experiencing soaring trade deficit which is depleting the import cover and thus putting pressure on...

Pakistan Economy_MPC faces a tough choice, expect 50bps rate cut , (AK...

The MPC of the SBP - scheduled to meet on Friday, 15th May 2020 – faces a dilemma, with a need to strike balance between providing immediate relief to the economy and preserving macro stability over the medium term. On one hand, the inflationary backdrop is benign (~6.8%YoY over the next six months), with corona induced decline in consumption and consequently commodity prices, along with scrapping of utility adjustments, translating into steep decline in inflation readings. This coupled with...

Pakistan Economy: Current Account gives a green light to Macro Consoli...

Latest SBP data on external account show marked improvement in the current account balance, with the country running a current account surplus of US$99mn in Oct’19 after 49months compared to CAD of US$284mn in the preceding month and US$1,280mn in Oct’18. Encouragingly, unlike the past few months where YoY deficit reduction was primarily import led, the Oct’19 improvement in current account balance was driven both by i) export growth (+10%YoY) and ii) import contraction (-21%YoY). While th...

Shahrukh Saleem
  • Shahrukh Saleem

Pakistan OMCs: Much ado about margins,(AKD Daily, Nov 11, 2019)

After a delay of five months, Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) finally accorded approval to revision in OMC margins, setting them at PkR2.81/liter for MS and HSD for rest of FY20 (effective Dec’19) — increasing by 6.4%. Margin revision did not compensate OMCs for the delay where we had already incorporated margins of PkR2.77/liter for FY20 vs. now applicable weighted average margins of PkR2.74 resting lower than our estimates, pruning earnings of PSO/APL by 1.5/1% (avg. FY20-22). Though...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

AKD STOCK SMART, Nov 08, 2019

Index continued the momentum gained towards the end of last week and started the week on a strong footing, increasing by ~900 points in first trading session, supported by declining yields in the PIB auction held last week while additional stimulus was provided by easing tensions on the political front between government and opposition. Moreover, encouraging numbers clocked in for external account which provided further support. The enthusiasm based on aforesaid factors was carried for the whole...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Pakistan Strategy: Risk appetite, not fundamentals driving performance...

Confronting a slew of macro, peripheral and political shocks to continue its climb, the KSE-100 index has risen 4% during the last five trading sessions taking returns from Aug’16 (CYTD low) onward to 24% Isolating sectoral performance CYTD we highlight the role of side-stocks and sectoral plays in driving market performance, where further comparison to CYTD market low (Aug 16th) highlights the role played by off-board sectors (Refinery/Transport/Sugar were up 50/32/15%) favored by retail in...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Pakistan Commodities_Commodity prices remaining strong, (AKD Daily, Se...

AKD Daily Pakistan Commodities: Commodity prices remaining strong Global commodities have remained strong in the last one month where demand side dampness has resulted in a slight MoM decline in oil prices while supply tightness has resulted in wheat prices increasing. On the other hand, coal prices continue their upward trek as power generation demand remained strong. Crude oil prices declined 4%MoM to US$72/bbl in Aug'21 due to strengthening dollar as FED announced a tapering off of its ...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Pakistan Commodities_COVID scare makes commodities lose steam , (AKD D...

AKD Daily Pakistan Commodities: COVID scare makes commodities lose steam Jul’21 marks the slowest monthly surge in TRJ CRY index since Mar’21, +2.2%MoM as commodity complex appeared to be running out of steam, with downward corrections seen in metals (scrap prices down 10%MoM) and agriculture (FAO index down 1.2%MoM) over Jun’21. However, energy remains well supported with short term outlook largely depending on OPEC+ policy and resurging COVID cases globally. Oil prices averaged US$75/bbl ...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

AKD STOCK SMART

Faltering under mounting macro risks and pressured by significant headline risks, the KSE-100 index continued its FYTD tumble, slipping 7.1%WoW to close at 29,429pts, dropping below the physcological 30K mark after a span of five years. Key news flows during the week included: 1) to avoid US$30mn penalty under Take or Pay mechanism and reduce the volume of demurrages, the GoP has minimized FO and coal based power generation to ensure maximum intake of RLNG, 2) FBR announced that it will not take...

Hamza Kamal
  • Hamza Kamal

Pakistan Strategy_ Perfect storm of risks clouds fundamentals

Week to date decline of 6.1% cover a period of depressed price performance for stocks, with volumes and returns closely resembling FY08-09, a period of record weakness in equity market performance, highlighting the multi-faceted nature of the prevailing market sell-off We segment news reports and policy actions during the year into macro and sectoral items, while underlining the broad pressures at play on both fronts forcing investors to hunker down, refrain from building fresh positions and ...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Pakistan Commodities_July’19 Signals prolonged deceleration

  Global economic growth entered a late-cycle slowdown in the outgoing month, as US China trade tensions creeped into consumer and business confidence while global trade metrics (CPB World Trade monitor slowing from Oct’18 onwards) deteriorated at their fastest pace since the Global Financial Crisis. Signaling weakness in global economic outlook, the US Fed cut its policy rate, it’s first since 2008, signaling the precautionary commencement of a new round of global monetary easing (followed...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

HBL_Attractive valuations call for accumulation

HBL's 1HCY17 earnings were down 3%YoY on spread compression, credit quality infection an higher expenses (tax and otherwise). Pick up in advances was the key highlight where materialization of CPEC investments led 11.2%YoY growth in loans. Corporate book continues to form the major chunk, however HBL is also keenly building on its consumer portfolio which while accretive to margins can lead to higher domestic NPLs. This together with continued pressure on NIMs at least until CY18F when interest ...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

ENGRO_1HCY17 Analyst Briefing Notes

ENGRO held its analyst briefing on Friday (Aug 18'17) to discuss its 1HCY17 earnings performance. To recall, ENGRO announced consolidated/unconsolidated NPAT of PkR3.78bn/PkR4.10bn (EPS: PkR7.21/PkR7.84) in 1HCY17, down 32%YoY/79%YoY. Key highlights of 1HCY17 consolidated result included: 1) weakening topline (down 22%YoY) due to classification of EFOODS as associates (post its partial divestment) despite 23%YoY/17% jump in EFERT/EPCL topline and 2) significantly higher effective tax rate of 64%...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

NML_Fundamentals remain intact

​Based on its continued focus on value added segment and higher expected payout from portfolio companies, NML (TP: PkR185.3/sh, upside: 23.7%) remains our preferred play in the sector. Benefitting from its garment capacity expansion, NML registered 38%YoY sales growth in garment segment in 9MFY17, where we expect this trend to continue and support topline growth (FY18F: 11%YoY) despite declining trend in non-value added sales. In addition, textile export package (FY17/FY18F incremental EPS: Pk...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Budget FY18_Proposals and Implications

​The incumbent government is due to present its last federal budget on May 26'17 where we expect the government to move ahead with its growth agenda. Setting an ambitious GDP growth target of 6% in FY18F, the GoP is likely to enhance its development expenditure primarily making its case on uptick in CPEC led activity, with news flows suggesting federal PSDP allocation at PkR1,001bn vs. PkR800bn in FY17B. However, fiscal constraints will remain in play where higher tax collection is likely to b...

Pakistan Oil & Gas_Cracks holding steady on hope of sustained rebound ...

AKD Daily Pakistan Oil & Gas: Cracks holding steady on hope of sustained rebound POL product cracks for second-half Nov’20 (11 trading days 12-26th) remained sticky - particularly for HSD (largest refining segment, 46%/44% of 1QFY21/FY20 output), despite underlying crude benchmarks inching higher (Arab Light during the period average at US$44.3/bbl up 14.1% over previous 14 days) fueled by COVID-19 vaccine efficacy and expectations of fiscal stimulus. HSD crack to Arab Light averaged US$+2...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Pakistan Commodities_Quick to celebrate the end of COVID-19, (AKD Dail...

AKD Daily Pakistan Commodities: Quick to celebrate the end of COVID-19 Investors strengthened bullish outlooks following robust COVID-19 vaccines efficacy data, reduced global political uncertainty fueling expectations of continued stimulus in developed markets and Asian economies resuming industrial production activity driving the TRJ commodity index higher by 10.6%MoM. The pace of industrial growth broadly hastened Nov’20, as highlighted by both global and economy specific PMIs for manufa...

Shahrukh Saleem
  • Shahrukh Saleem

Pakistan Cement_Seasonality weighs heavily on local demand, (AKD Daily...

AKD Daily Pakistan Cement: Seasonality weighs heavily on local demand Local cement dispatches continue to increase with a 6%YoY growth in Nov’20 where South continues to lead (up 15%YoY for Nov’20) amidst a multitude of factors are at play including increasing demand in urban centers on the back of resumption in housing projects and North-based players decreasing their supply to the region. However, significant sequential decline was witnessed in dispatches of both the regions (South/North ...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Stock Smart Weekly (Dec 04, 2020)

StockSmart                        Weekly Review                                 The KSE-100 remained buoyant during the outgoing week, where tough measures for containing COVID-19 cases taken the previous week, as well as potential measures to revitalize the IMF program already forgotten by the investors. The exuberance was majorly led by GoP reportedly budgeting US$150mn for procurement of vaccines by 1QCY21. The inflation reading at 8.35% was up by 0.82ppt MoM, where Pakistan now has a nega...

HUBC_Base plant up for sale; Buy stance maintained, (AKD Daily, Dec 04...

AKD Daily HUBC: Base plant up for sale; Buy stance maintained HUBC’s management has reportedly proposed GoP to buy its base plant at a transaction price of PkR65bn (PkR50/sh). While we ignore the reported book value on unconsolidated basis, summing the PV of future cashflows from base plant, net receivables and plant’s value as reported in Jun’20 financial statements, the 1,200MW Base plant should be valued at PkR91/sh, in our view. We believe the management proposed a lower value for the s...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Pakistan Strategy_MSCI Review_Back to Frontier Market, (AKD Daily, Sep...

AKD Daily Pakistan Strategy: MSCI Review - Back to Frontier Market A move that was widely anticipated, MSCI has officially downgraded Pakistan from MSCI EM index to MSCI FM index, thus bringing an end to country’s 4yr long stay in the EM index. The decision was announced in the early morning hours and followed feedback received from market participants over reclassification. The transition from EM to FM index will be a one step  process and will coincide with Nov’21 Semi-Annual Index Review...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Pakistan Strategy_Aug'21_Market review and Outlook, (AKD Daily, Sep 01...

AKD Dail Pakistan Strategy_Aug’21_Market review and Outlook Market continued to remain jittery throughout Aug’21, returning 0.6%MoM, as the concerns related to political turmoil in Afghanistan, 4th wave of COVID-19 and rapid currency depreciation (4.4%MoM) spoiled the investors’ sentiments. Market participation also eased off during the month as ADT clocked in at 523mn (down 11%MoM) while ADTV for the month improved slightly (1%MoM) to clock in at PkR47.4bn. Foreign selling continued unab...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Pakistan Economy_Aug'21 inflation to clock in at 8.35%YoY, (AKD Daily,...

AKD Daily Pakistan Economy_Aug’21 inflation to clock in at 8.35%YoY Inflation for Aug’21 is likely to clock in at 8.35%YoY compared to 8.40%YoY in Jul’21. On a monthly basis, inflation is likely to stand at +0.58%MoM (Urban/Rural: 0.53%MoM/0.67%MoM) as build up in prices across all segments was partially countered by flattish food inflation (down 0.08%MoM vis-à-vis 1.74%MoM uptick in Jul’21 partly attributable to seasonal factors). Inflation for FY22 is expected to be recorded at 8.1% where...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Pakistan Economy_FY21 ends with fiscal deficit at 7.1%, (AKD Daily, Au...

AKD Daily Pakistan Economy: FY21 ends with fiscal deficit at 7.1% In the latest fiscal accounts, FY21 ended with a fiscal deficit of 7.1% compared to 8.0% in FY20 while primary balance exhibited a larger than expected deficit of 1.4% (Govt. estimated 1.1% primary deficit in budget documents) in contrast to 1.8% in the same period last year. The larger primary deficit was driven by 4QFY21 deficit of 2.3% was due to, i) fall-through of 40.4% of annual defence spending in the last quarter, ii...

Team AKD Research
  • Team AKD Research

Stock Smart Weekly (Aug 27, 2021)

StockSmart                        Weekly Review                                 KSE-100 remained under pressure during the week, apart from Monday, where the benchmark index crossed the much anticipated barrier of 48,000pts to close at 48,112pts (+512ptsDoD) but the weak sentiment of the market coupled with incessant PkR/USD depreciation (+0.9%WoW), geopolitical tensions in the region and uncertainty over talks with IMF continued to derail investor confidence during the rest of the week. The ...

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