Report

Mining Monthly: October Edition

What you need to know:
• Gold reached new record highs above $4,300/oz before settling around $4,000/oz, while silver climbed for the sixth consecutive month.
• Despite this rise in metal prices, mining equities underperformed, with the GDX down 5.7%, GDXJ down 5.5%, and SILJ down 7.3%, and COPX up 3.1%, compared to the S&P 500 (+2.5%) and TSX (+0.8%).
• Geopolitical developments, including the U.S. $5B critical minerals fund, G7 stockpiling alliance, and Trump's new partnerships with Australia and Japan reinforced long-term optimism for supply chain security growth.

The mining sector experienced a volatile month, driven by fluctuating metals prices amid economic uncertainty. Gold reached new record highs above $4,300/oz mid-month before pulling back and stabilizing around $4,000/oz by month-end, while silver continued to surge to over $52/oz, fueled by industrial demand and central bank buying before pulling back alongside gold. Copper climbed to around $5.20/lb before a slight pullback, supported by supply disruptions and demand from electrification and infrastructure sectors.

Investor sentiment remained strong through the fluctuation of metal prices, with companies raising ~$2.9B through 185 equity deals in October, marking the most active month for new share sales since 2013, according to Bloomberg. The surge in financings was driven largely by gold and silver producers, as well as heightened demand for critical minerals. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s second 25bps rate cut further bolstered confidence, providing additional support for gold. Despite a late-month pullback from record highs, gold remains up ~46% YTD, supported by sustained central bank purchases, ETF inflows, and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty driving investors toward hard-asset exposure. We also view this pullback as healthy, given the parabolic trend the precious metal was on since mid-August.

The sector also saw notable geopolitical developments, including the U.S. launching a $5B critical minerals fund with Orion Resource Partners and Abu Dhabi’s ADQ, along with Trump’s agreements with Australia and Japan to co-fund mining projects and strengthen supply chains against China’s dominance. The G7’s new critical minerals alliance, focused on offtake agreements and stockpiling, further boosted optimism for long-term sector stability. Canada also approved the U.S. government’s stake in Trilogy Metals (see ‘Major News’ for details) and signaled that future foreign investment reviews will be handled on a case-by-case basis amid escalating tariff tensions.
Underlyings
ALLEGIANT GOLD

Amerigo Resources Ltd.

Amerigo Resources is engaged in the production of copper and molybdenum concentrates with operations in Chile. Through its subsidiary, Minera Valle Central S.A., Co. has a contract with Chile's state-owned copper producer National Copper Corporation to process the tailings from El Teniente underground copper mine.

ANDEAN PRECIOUS METALS CORP

CAPITAN SILVER CORP

Copper Fox Metals Inc.

Copper Fox Metals is engaged in the exploration for and development of mining properties in Western Canada.

DYNACOR GROUP INC.

Endurance Gold

Endurance Gold is engaged in the exploration and development of mineral properties in North America and has not yet determined whether its properties contain ore reserves that are economically recoverable. The recoverability of the amounts expended on mineral interests by Co. is dependent upon the existence of economically recoverable reserves, the ability of Co. to obtain necessary financing to complete exploration and development of its mineral properties and upon future profitable production or proceeds from disposition of its mineral interests.

Exploits Discovery Corp.

Forge Resources Corp.

Giga Metals

GIGA Metals is an exploration stage mineral resources company engaged in the acquisition and exploration of mineral properties, primarily in northern British Columbia. Co. has not yet identified any mineral resource on any of its properties that is of a commercially exploitable quantity.

MAGNA TERRA MINERALS INC

Mineros

Mineros is primarily engaged in the mining of gold, as well as in related activities pertaining to the mining industry in general, including the mining of precious metals, metallic or non-metallic mineral substances or hydrocarbons.

MOON RIVER MOLY LTD

NAMIB MINERALS

OMAI GOLD MINES CORP

REGULUS RESOURCE

Regulus Resources is an exploration company engaged in the acquisition, exploration and development of mineral resources.

Rio Tinto Limited

Rio Tinto is a mining group based in the United Kingdom and Australia. Co. is engaged in the business of finding, mining and processing mineral resources. Co.'s major products are iron ore, aluminium, copper, diamonds, coal, uranium, gold and industrial minerals (borax, titanium dioxide and salt). Co.'s activities span the world but are strongly represented in Australia and North America with significant businesses in South America, Asia, Europe and Africa. Co.'s operations comprise four principal product groups - Iron Ore, Aluminium, Copper and Diamonds, and Energy & Minerals.

Sailfish Royalty Corp.

Santacruz Silver Mining

Santacruz Silver Mining is engaged in the operation, acquisition, exploration and development of mineral properties in Mexico, with a primary focus on silver, but also including gold, zinc and lead. Co. is focused on meeting and maintaining its primary production objective of producing approximately 1.5 million silver equivalent ounces on a yearly basis at its producing property, the Rosario Mine. In addition, Co. is exploring three other mineral properties, being the San Felipe Project (an advanced stage project), the Gavilanes Project (an exploration project), and the El Gachi Property (an early stage exploration project).

Spanish Mountain Gold Ltd

Spanish Mountain Gold is an exploration stage company engaged in the acquisition, exploration and development of mineral properties.

Wabi Exploration Inc

Wabi Exploration is engaged in the exploration of minerals.

Provider
Atrium Research Corporation
Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research provides institutional quality issuer paid research on North American public equities using deep fundamental analysis. Our research reports are disseminated through Bloomberg, FactSet, Capital IQ, Reuters and many more, as well as through our social media and email distribution lists. 

Analysts
Ben Pirie

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