Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research provides institutional quality issuer paid research on North American public equities using deep fundamental analysis. Our research reports are disseminated through Bloomberg, FactSet, Capital IQ, Reuters and many more, as well as through our social media and email distribution lists. 

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

APM: Increasing Target Price on Excellent Q1 Profitability

What you need to know: • Andean reported Q1 financial results that came in well above our expectations. The beat was driven by the higher metals prices and lower than expected costs at both assets. • Revenue was $62.0M (+44% YoY) vs. our estimate of $53.6M. OCF came in at $7.0M vs. our estimate of ($1.2M). • APM is up 68% YTD, yet still only trades at 3.1x 2025E CF. We remain highly bullish on the stock and are increasing our target price. Yesterday evening, Andean Precious Metals (APM:TSX, AN...

Ben Pirie ... (+3)
  • Ben Pirie
  • Nicholas Cortellucci
  • CFA

ARG: Strong Q1 Financials Led by Increased Copper Price

What you need to know: • Amerigo reported strong Q1 financial results, generating revenue of $44.2M (-2% YoY) vs. our expectation of $39.5M, driven by the higher copper price. EBITDA was $15.2M vs. $12.5M expected while OCF was $11.6M vs. $10.2M expected. • ARG returned $4.6M to shareholders in Q1, including $3.5M from dividends and $1.1M from buybacks. • ARG remains on track for its annual guidance and to pay off its debt by year-end, freeing up additional cashflow to be returned to shareholde...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

Mining Monthly: April Edition

What you need to know: • The metals and mining market showed a fourth straight month of strong gains in April on the back of the escalating trade tensions. • In April, gold was up 5.6%, silver was down 4.2%, and copper was down 9.6%. The equities outperformed the commodities, with the GDX up 6.5%, GDXJ up 7.3%, and SIL up 3.3%. • Financings remained largely elevated during April, highlighting the institutional capital that has flowed into the mining sector recently. • M&A started to pick up agai...

Ben Pirie ... (+3)
  • Ben Pirie
  • Nicholas Cortellucci
  • CFA

SRR: Consistent Returns Backed by Strong Fundamentals

What you need to know: • Source Rock is an oil and gas royalty company with interests in lands across Saskatchewan and Alberta. • SRR has grown average daily production at a 16% CAGR since 2021, resulting in adjusted EBITDA growing at a 22% CAGR. • Source Rock offers a >9% dividend yield which has grown at 2.5% annually since initiating the dividend in 2014. • SRR has a strong shareholder base with CN Rail Pension Fund owning 20% and management/board owning 10%. Source Rock Royalties Ltd. (SRR...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

RIO: Construction Update for the Fenix Gold Project

What you need to know: • Rio2 provided an update on the construction progress at the Fenix Gold Project near Copiapó, Chile. As of the end of Q1, construction is 19% complete and remains on track and on budget for first gold in Q1/26. • As a reminder, The Fenix Gold Project is the largest fully permitted and financed gold heap leach project in the Americas. The management team comes from Rio Alto, which was highly successful prior to its merger with Taho Resources in a C$1.3B transaction. • We...

Nicholas Cortellucci ... (+2)
  • Nicholas Cortellucci
  • CFA

Oilfield Services: Still Way Too Cheap

What you need to know: • We anticipate oil prices to remain within the US$80-$90 range, which will sustain the current uptick in E&P capital expenditure and foster a strong environment for oilfield services firms. • Our peer group continues to trade at deep-value multiples; currently at 4.5x/4.0x 2024E/2025E EBITDA. • We highlight a few of our favourite small-cap names that we believe have significant upside as we move into H2/24. Following our last oilfield services thematic note (published i...

Nicholas Cortellucci ... (+2)
  • Nicholas Cortellucci
  • CFA

Energy Storage: The Missing Piece for the Energy Transition

What you need to know: • Due to the fluctuating levels of energy produced on an hourly basis by renewable energy sources, energy storage is required to smooth out supply and demand • The grid is becoming increasingly unstable due to its old age and extreme weather conditions, and is not set up to accommodate a net-zero system • Small and mid-cap players in the space are down over 60% since 2021, making today’s valuations a great entry point Why Do We Need Energy Storage? Intermittent Supply fro...

Nicholas Cortellucci ... (+2)
  • Nicholas Cortellucci
  • CFA

Oilfield Services: Another Great Year Ahead

What you need to know: • We expect oilfield service stocks to continue to outperform in 2023 and beyond based on supportive oil price fundamentals, rising capex levels amongst E&Ps, and pricing power leading to margin expansion • Despite the sector’s strong fundamental tailwinds and the probability for a multi-year commodity supercycle, oilfield service companies are still trading at trough-level multiples Investment Thesis Supportive Oil Prices While we will not go in-depth on oil price funda...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

Mining Monthly: April Edition

What you need to know: • The metals and mining market showed a fourth straight month of strong gains in April on the back of the escalating trade tensions. • In April, gold was up 5.6%, silver was down 4.2%, and copper was down 9.6%. The equities outperformed the commodities, with the GDX up 6.5%, GDXJ up 7.3%, and SIL up 3.3%. • Financings remained largely elevated during April, highlighting the institutional capital that has flowed into the mining sector recently. • M&A started to pick up agai...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

Mining Monthly: March Edition

What you need to know: • The metals and mining market showed a third straight month of strong gains in March as investors moved into safe haven assets to protect from trade tensions and economic uncertainty. • In March, gold was up 3.4%, silver was up 0.8%, and copper was up 6.1%. The equities largely outperformed compared to the commodities, with the GDX up 15.7%, GDXJ up 17.6%, and SIL up 13.6%. • The Trump administration announced an executive order to increase American mineral production acr...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

Mining Monthly: February Edition

What you need to know: • After January’s strong gains in the metals and mining markets, February saw further growth across spot prices with the equities lagging due to cautious investor sentiment. • In February, gold hit all-time highs up 3.4%, silver was up 0.8%, and copper up 6.1%. The equities underperformed compared to the metals, with the GDX up 1.9%, GDXJ up 0.5%, and SIL up 0.3%. • British Columbia has launched a fast-track plan for 18 projects worth ~$20B, aiming to accelerate economic ...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

Mining Monthly: January Edition

What you need to know: • Following two months of poor returns, the metals and mining market rose sharply in January as tariff uncertainties rose and the treasury yields decreased. • In January, gold was up 6%, silver was up 7%, and copper was up 7%. The equities exhibited leverage to the commodity price increases, with the GDX up 16%, GDXJ up 15%, and SILJ up 10%. • Donald Trump introduced the “Unleashing American Energy” executive order, urging agencies to review regulatory policies for oil, na...

Ben Pirie
  • Ben Pirie

Mining Monthly: December Edition

What you need to know: • Following the poor performance in the mining sector after the election of Donald Trump in November, gold and precious metals continued to struggle with the mining equities particularly struggling. Despite this, gold and silver closed out the year up 27.4% and 22.2%, respectively. • Mining equities performed negatively in December with the GDX down 9.9%, GDXJ down 10.3%, SIL down 12.4%, and COPX down 10.3%. • Financings were elevated in December as companies look to cl...

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