AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 01/08/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS________________________________________
ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Operating update – Net production in Austria was 303 boe/d. The company held A$4.8 mm in cash at the end of June.
Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C; Target price of C$0.35 per share: Successful flow test at North-MGH boosts expected 2H26 gas production to 7-10 mmcf/d – The MGH-20 well in the North Mengoepeh (MGH) field tested 2.8 mmcf/d with associated oil. This is a positive surprise as there are currently no estimated resources at the field that was shut in in 2014. Following the extended well test at SE-MGH, Criterium plans to initiate extended testing on MGH-20 and three additional shut-in wells on the North MGH well pad. Assuming two wells are brought online, North MGH could add 2–3 mmcf/d to SE-MGH output, lifting combined volumes to 7–10 mmcf/d in 2H26. The estimated development cost to reach first gas at North MGH is ~US$1 mm, while SE-MGH remains on track for 1Q26 production, supported by 15 bcf of 2C contingent resources and a capital budget of US$3–5 mm. SE-MGH re-entry operations are ongoing with initial well testing scheduled for August.
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Serica Energy (SQZ LN)C; Target price of £2.70 per share: Triton ramp-up to full production delayed but very high production at BKR – Following the July production restart at Triton FPSO, ramp-up to the steady-state plateau of has been delayed into August. With Bittern now back online and Evelyn and Gannet expected to follow shortly, net production at Triton is set to reach 25 mboe/d in the near future. It is expected that the production plateau will exceed this level once the new wells are then brought onstream later in August. The delay has not resulted in any incremental costs. Production from other assets remains robust, approaching ~30 mboe/d versus our 2Q25 estimate of ~25 mboe/d—seemingly driven by a current strong performance at BKR. As a result, despite timing at Triton, FY25 production guidance has been revised only marginally from 33–37 mboe/d to 33–35 mboe/d. No changes to forecasts are warranted ahead of the half-year results on 5 August.
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Sintana Energy (SEI.V CN)C; Target price of C$1.80 per share: Additional resources in Namibia – Pancontinental Energy has increased the gross resources estimates on PEL 87 from 1.6 bnboe to 2.3 bnboe. This includes the Oryx prospect with 1.1 bn boe and 26.2% chance of success. Sintana holds 7.5% interest in the block.
Southern Energy (SOUC LN/SOU CN)C; Target price of £0.25 per share: IP30 flow rate at first DUC could derisk up to 45 new locations in the Lower Selma Chalk – The GH LSC 13-13 #2 well (Lower Selma Chalk) commenced production at ~4.0 mmcf/d and averaged 3.6 mmcf/d over its IP30 period. Although below the initial 5.5 mmcf/d forecast, the observed decline rate is notably shallower than expected, with flow rates holding at 3.4 mmcf/d after one month (~15% decline). This performance benchmarks favourably against Upper Selma Chalk (USC) wells, which typically exhibit higher IP30 rates of 5.0–6.5 mmcf/d but decline more steeply, often down to ~3.0 mmcf/d within the first month. The LSC 13-13 #2 well also displays more stable wellhead pressure—likely a result of larger connected gas volumes in the Lower Selma reservoir. Based on these trends, estimated recovery over a year and ultimate recovery remain in line with earlier expectations (ultimate recovery of ~3.5 bcf/well) and may exceed that of USC wells. Completion costs for the GH LSC 13-13 #2 well came in at US$2.2 mm, with full-cycle costs for future LSC wells now forecast at ~US$4.0 mm—20% below the original estimate (US$5.0 mm). Water flowback rates are over 70% lower than USC wells, yielding initial operating cost savings of ~US$0.20/mcfe. Payback for completing the DUC is estimated at 13–14 months for LSC 13-13 #2, with further improvement anticipated to 10–11 months for future wells. Confirmation of shallower decline profiles and reduced cost structure could materially impact YE25 reserves booking. The current reserves audit assumes US$5.0 mm per well; updating this to US$4.0 mm would enhance reserves metrics. The Lower Selma Chalk inventory includes 45 unbooked drilling locations, representing ~26 mmboe of potential reserves—nearly matching YE24 2P reserves of 28 mmboe.
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Valeura Energy (VLE CN)C; Target price of C$12.70 per share: Another impressive acquisition in Thailand –Valeura is acquiring from PTTEP 40% WI in Blocks G1/65 and G3/65 with a combined area of 20,134 km2 and bordering some of the largest gas fields in Thailand (Erawan and Bongkot). The blocks have multiple gas discoveries that could be developed shortly as tie backs to existing infrastructure—positioning Valeura to potentially book its first gas reserves in the near term. Both licences offer oil potential adjacent to Valeura’s current production. Located immediately south of the Rossukon oil field, the Maratee-Bussaba (G1/65) includes multiple oil drilling prospects. A targeted 3D seismic acquisition program will concentrate on the western section to support upcoming exploration. A development here could be tied in to PTTEP’s infrastructure in their operated block just to the east. The Nong Yao North-East area (G3/65) is expected to feature an oil-bearing fairway situated between Valeura’s Nong Yao field and the undeveloped Ubon field to the north. A new 3D seismic campaign is scheduled for 2025 to refine drill targets ahead of exploration drilling. Any commercial success could be tied back to Valeura’s Nong Yao field. The deal reflects ground-floor economics with Valeura paying 40% of incurred back costs—US$14.7 mm (net to Valeura) to date—and no promote. Additionally, Valeura will fund up to US$3.7 mm for ~165 km² of 3D seismic on Block G3/65 that it requested. These terms are considered highly favorable and underscore the strong strategic relationship with PTTEP, whose CEO has previously signaled the intention to collaborate closely on oil-focused initiatives. Given the limited visibility on gas development scale, assigning precise value to these assets remains premature.
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IN OTHER NEWS
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AMERICAS
Gran Tierra Energy (GTE LN/US/CN): 2Q25 results – 2Q25 production in Colombia, Ecuador and Canada was 47,196 boe/d. Net debt at the end of June was US$746 mm.
Parex Resources (PXT CN): 2Q25 results – 2Q25 production in Colombia was 42,542 boe/d. Net cash at the end of June was US$81 mm. Production in July was 44,450 boe/d. The FY25 production guidance of 43,000 to 47,000 boe/d and capex of US$285 to US$315 mm is unchanged.
Questerre Energy (QEC CN): Acquisition of assets in Brazil – Questerre is acquiring PX Energy for US$14.3 mm in shares. PX produces ~4,500 bbl/d.
Rockhopper Exploration (RKH LN): Raising new equity for the Falklands – Rockhopper is raising US$140 mm of new equity at a price of £0.53 per share. Placee with also receive one warrant for every 4 new shares with a strike price of £0.80 per share. The proceeds of the financing will fund Rockhopper’s share of capex of the Sea Lion phase 1 development. The financing is conditional of taking FID at Sea Lion.
ASIA AND AUSTRALASIA
PTTEP: Acquiring gas assets in Malaysia/Thailand – PTT is acquiring a 50% interest in Block A-18 of the Malaysia-Thailand joint development area for US$450 mm. The block produces 600 mmcf/d.
EUROPE
Aker BP (AKERBP NO): Asset swap in Norway – Aker BP is swapping its 10% interest in Alva Nord and 3.5% interest in Verlaande in return for Japex’s North Sea portfolio and a cash consideration of US$14 mm. Japex’s portfolio includes a 15% interest in Kjottkake, a 10% interest in Kveikje and a 20% interest in PL1212S.
MCF Energy (MCF CN): Selling Czech assets – MCF is selling its Czech assets to Third Source Energy for a total consideration of up to C$6.5 mm comprised of a C$1 mm in cash payment on completion, and a 10% gross overriding royalty on the portion of realized gas revenue capped at C$5.5 mm. MCF Energy has a put option for two years to sell the royalty for C$0.75 mm. Third Source has a call option for two years to terminate the royalty by paying C$1.5 mm.
OMV (OMV AG): 2Q25 results – Adjusted net income for the period was EUR385 mm with 304 mboe/d production.
Prospex Energy (PXEN LN): Operating update – The leak in the production tubing of the Viura-1B well in Spain has been repaired. However there is an unexpected blockage of residual drilling mud. A coil-tubing unit is needed to clear the obstruction. The coil-tubing unit is expected to arrive on site mid-August.
Shell (SHEL LN): 2Q25 results – 2Q25 production was US$4.3 bn with 2,682 mboe/d production.
FORMER SOVIET UNION
Nostrum Oil & Gas (NOG LN): 2Q25 update in Kazakhstan – 1H25 production was 16,974 boe/d.
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
Predator Oil & Gas (PRD LN): No flow at well in Morocco – The A zone at the MOU-3 well did not flow following perforation with larger guns.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
BW Energy (BWE NO): 2Q25 results – 1H25 production in Gabon and Brazil was 34.2 mbbl/d. The FY25 production guidance is maintained. Net debt at the end of June was US$422 mm.
Noble Helium (NHE AU): Increased helium resources in Tanzania – The North Rukwa project is now estimated to hold 225.5 bcf of helium resources (+28.5 bcf vs. the previous estimate).
Seplat Energy (SEPL LN): 2Q25 results – 1H25 WI production in Nigeria was 134,492 boe/d including 100,327 bbl/d of oil. Net debt at the end of June was of US$676 mm. The FY25 production and capex guidance has been re-iterated.
EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
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04/08/2025: Kosmos Energy (KOS US/LN) – 2Q25 results
05/08/2025: Serica Energy (SQZ LN) – 2Q25 results
05/08/2025: bp (BP LN) – 2Q25 results
06/08/2025: Panoro Energy (PEN NO) – 2Q25 trading update
06/08/2025: GeoPark (GPRK US) – 2Q25 results
07/08/2025: Canacol Energy (CNE CN) – 2Q25 results
07/08/2025: Valeura Energy (VLE CN) – 2Q25 results
07/08/2025: PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN) – 2Q25 results
07/08/2025: Vaalco Energy (EGY US/LN) – 2Q25 results
Aker BP ASA engages in the exploration, development, and production of petroleum resources on the Norwegian Shelf. In addition, Co. has a separate Johan Sverdrup business unit to manage its interest.
BW Energy Ltd. BW Energy Limited is a Bermuda-based oil and gas company engaged in oil and gas exploration and production activities. The Company is involved in the acquisition, development and production of oil and natural gas fields. It has a diversified portfolio of production and development assets offshore West Africa and Brazil, and holds interests in three hydrocarbon licenses in Gabon, Brazil and Namibia. Its Dussafu Marin Permit and the associated Ruche Exclusive Exploitation Area (EEA) production license are located approximately 50 kilometers (km) off the coast of Gabon. The Ruche EEA covers an area of approximately 850 square kilometers. The Maromba discovery is located approximately 100 kilometers offshore in the southern part of the Campos Basin. The Kudu gas field is some 130 km offshore and covers an area approximately 4,500 square kilometers. The Company's subsidiaries include BW Energy Dussafu B.V., BW Energy Gabon Pte Ltd, BW Energy Gabon SA and BW Energy Holdings Pte Ltd.
Gran Tierra Energy, together with its subsidiaries, is a company focused on oil and gas exploration and production in Colombia. Co. is primarily engaged in the exploration and production of oil and natural gas. Co. has one reportable segment based on geographic organization, Colombia. As of Dec 31 2017, Co. had total estimated proved reserves of 59.3 million barrels of oil and natural gas equivalent, consisting of 58.9 million barrels of oil and 2.1 million cubic feet of natural gas.
OMV is an international energy company with activities in Exploration and Production (E&P), Refining and Marketing including petrochemicals (R&M), and Gas and Power (G&P). Co. explores and develops oil and gas resources and supply energy to over 100 million people. OMV has three operating segments: Exploration and Production (E&P), Refining and Marketing, including petrochemicals (R&M), and Gas and Power (G&P), as well as the segment Corporate and Other (Co&O).
Parex Resources is engaged in oil and natural gas exploration, development and production in South America and the Caribbean region. As of Dec 31 2010, Co. had gross proved light and medium oil reserve of 1,066 thousand barrels (net: 980 thousand barrels).
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC seeks to consolidate the acquisition of a specific non-operated oil and gas business opportunity in the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, to generate income for Co., and exploration and appraisal assets in the Licensing Options offshore Ireland that form an existing operating business operated by POGV. Both businesses are consistent with Co.'s focus on responsible, environmentally aware, investment in the fossil fuel industry.
Questerre Energy is engaged in the exploration for, and the development, production and acquisition of oil and gas projects, particularly shale oil and gas. Co. holds assets in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Quebec.
Rockhopper Exploration is an oil and gas exploration and production company with key interests in the North Falkland Basin and the Greater Mediterranean region.
Serica Energy is an independent oil and gas company with production, development and exploration licence interests in the U.K. Continental Shelf and exploration interests in Ireland, Morocco and Namibia. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. had proved plus probable reserves of 3.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, which consisted of 2.1 million barrels of oil and 10.40 billion cubic feet of gas.
Sintana Energy is a development stage company engaged in oil and gas exploration and development activities in the United States.
Valeura Energy is engaged in the exploration, development and production of petroleum and natural gas in Turkey and Western Canada. As of Dec 31 2010, proven gross reserves for light and medium oil was 116 thousand barrels (net reserves of 104 thousand barrels); proven gross reserves for heavy oil was 10 thousand barrels (net reserves of 9 thousand barrels); proven gross reserves for natural gas was 1,047 million cubic feet (net reserves of 938 million cubic feet); and proven gross reserves for natural gas liquids was 26 thousand barrels (net reserves of 19 thousand barrels).
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
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