reports
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 22/11/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C: Portion of deeper target at Welchau flows water on test – Two intervals (total of ~16 m) in the Steinalm formation. were tested at a stable rate (natural flow) of 240-290 bbl/d of drilling mud, likely contaminated formation water and some oil traces. Gas was initially observed at surface. While the achieved flow rate highlights the high permeability of the natural fractures, the absence of hydrocarbons is disappoi...
ENW ENWELL ENERGY
SEI. SINTANA ENERGY
PANR PANTHEON RESOURCES
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
ENQ ENQUEST PLC
XOM EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION
CRCL CORCEL
ATOM ATOME ENERGY PLC
ITH ITHACA ENERGY PLC
NOG NOSTRUM OIL & GAS PLC
SEAPT NO SEACREST PETROLEO BERMUDA - SEAPT NO
ADX ADX ENERGY LTD
CDR CONDOR ENERGIES INC
PLSR PULSAR HELIUM INC.
- Stephane Foucaud
Sintana Energy Inc. (TSX-V: SEI): Pure play on the world’s exploration...
• ~11 high impact appraisal/exploration wells will be drilled on various licences in Namibia over the coming months. This is very material and is expected to attract the attention of investors. Sintana provides exposure to three out of the six licences with high impact drilling. • We believe that the recent weakness of Sintana’s share price offers an opportunity with an asymmetric risk/reward profile. • We estimate that Sintana’s current share price trades at a discount to the market value of i...
- Stephane Foucaud
Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Production reaching 13 mbbl/d. Two high ...
• There were no surprises in the 3Q24 accounts. • Since last week, WI production has increased from 12.5 mbbl/d to 13 mbbl/d. • Gross production in Gabon continues to be ~40 mbbl/d. Three further workovers for ESP installation are planned during 4Q24. The nameplate capacity of the FPSO could be increased by 10% to 44 mbbl/d. • Gross production in EG stands at 29 mbbl/d. The second infill well is starting production and could take overall gross production in EG to 35 mbbl/d. This new well could ...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 15/11/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: 1.9 mbbl/d at latest CN well. Water disposal infrastructure operational. High net cash – The fifth horizontal well at Carrizales Norte (CNB HZ-6) is producing 1.9 mbbl/d of oil (0.95 mbbl/d net to Arrow) with a water cut of 31%. The well reached TD ~ one month ago. After ~1 month of production, CNB HZ-1 and CNB HZ-3 were also producing >30% water with ~1 mbbl/d oil produ...
CVX CHEVRON CORPORATION
EGY VAALCO ENERGY INC.
TXP TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION
GENL GENEL ENERGY
ENI ENI S.P.A.
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
VLE VALEURA ENERGY INC.
MATD PETRO MATAD
NTOG NOSTRA TERRA OIL & GAS COMPANY
DGOC DIVERSIFIED GAS & OIL
AOI AFRICA OIL CORP
JSE JADESTONE ENERGY
BWE BW ENERGY
AXL. ARROW EXPLORATION LTD
TAL PETROTAL (TAL)
KIST KISTOS PLC
J4V VAR ENERGI ASA
SHELL ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
CDR CONDOR ENERGIES INC
- Stephane Foucaud
PetroTal Corp (AIM: PTAL): Production >21 mbbl/d. Buying a new rig wil...
• 3Q24 production was 15,203 bbl/d. This is in line with previous indications. The cash position at the end of September had been previously reported and there are no surprises in the rest of the balance sheet. • With the end of the dry season, production has rapidly increased from 10.7 mbbl/d during the first week of October to >21 mbbl/d currently. • PetroTal is buying a new rig that will be imported into Peru in 1Q25. Having a more modern rig will reduce downtime and minimize mobilization and...
- Stephane Foucaud
Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): High production in 4Q24. Launching a share ...
• The 3Q24 production and cash position at the end of September had been reported previously. • Production in September and October stood at ~26.4 mbbl/d. This is very high. The company expects production to be ~26 mbbl/d over 4Q24. We only assumed 24-25 mbbl/d. • The high production combined with (1) the settlement in early October of a 0.18 mmbbl lifting sold at the end of 3Q24 and (2) above average liftings in 4Q24 suggests high cashflow and free cashflow in 4Q24. As previously reported, Vale...
- Stephane Foucaud
Condor Energies Inc. (TSX: CDR): Good quarter. Positive signals at hig...
• 3Q24 production was 10,010 boe/d; which is line with our expectations. • Production has increased to 10,706 bo/ed in the last seven days following low cost work-over activities. • With the expansion of the workover programme upon the arrival of the second work-over rig and the installation of additional in-field flowline water separation systems, we expect that this trend will continue. We forecast 10.8 mboe/d production in 4Q24 (that might be too conservative) increasing to ~13 mboe/d in 1Q2...
- Stephane Foucaud
Vaalco Energy (NYSE: EGY): High production. Balance sheet strength ahe...
• 3Q24 WI production was 26,709 boe/d. This is above our expectations of 25,740 boe/d and towards the higher end of the guidance range of 24.9-27.6 mboe/d. • Vaalco has narrowed its FY24 production guidance range from 23.6-26.5 mboe/d to 24.1-25.4 mboe/d with lower capex (US$110-130 mm vs US$115-140 mm previously). • Success at the 4Q24 exploration well in the southern area of the Canada licence could derisk 8-12 mmboe and add ~US$0.45/sh to our Core NAV. • The detailed 2025 programme will be ...
- Stephane Foucaud
GeoPark Limited (NYSE: GPRK): Success at Confluencia Norte: material r...
• The three exploration wells at Confluencia Norte in Argentina are now in production with an aggregate gross flow rate of 4 mbbl/d (Geopark WI: 50%). The wells are still cleaning-up and production is increasing towards its peak within 90 days. • This is a very good result that derisks the area where no reserves have been booked so far. We understand that the performance of the wells currently tracks GeoPark’s P10 case. • We are increasing our expected total YE24 WI production for GeoPark in Arg...
- Stephane Foucaud
Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): 1.9 mbbl/d at latest CN well. Wate...
• The fifth horizontal well at Carrizales Norte (CNB HZ-6) is producing 1.9 mbbl/d of oil (0.95 mbbl/d net to Arrow) with a water cut of 31%. The well reached TD ~ one month ago. • After ~1 month of production, CNB HZ-1 and CNB HZ-3 were also producing >30% water with ~1 mbbl/d oil production (gross). Overall current gross oil production from the existing horizontal wells (CNB HZ-1, HZ-3, HZ-4 and HZ-5 but excluding HZ-6) is 4.36 mbbl/d (2.18 mbbl/d net to Arrow) with each well producing 1-1.16...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 01/11/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.70 per share: Approvals to start well testing at Welchau received. Rig and test equipment mobilized – All necessary approvals have been received to commence flow testing operations on the Welchau-1 discovery well for the period from 30 October 2024 until 31 March 2025. A workover rig has been mobilised to the Welchau-1 drill site with flow testing due to commence during the second half of Novem...
GPRK GEOPARK
A2PAZ7 TETHYS PETROLEUM
SEY STERLING ENERGY PLC
ENI ENI S.P.A.
PXT PAREX RESOURCES INC.
ALVOF ALVOPETRO ENERGY LTD
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
SNM SHAMARAN PETROLEUM CORP.
VLE VALEURA ENERGY INC.
EME EMPYREAN ENERGY
DNO DNO ASA CLASS A
XOM EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION
FEC FRONTERA ENERGY CORP
KOS KOSMOS ENERGY LTD.
ORC/B ORCA EXPLORATION GROUP CL B
HBR HARBOUR ENERGY PLC
PRD PREDATOR OIL & GAS HOLDINGS PLC
PLSR CN PULSAR HELIUM INC.
ADX ADX ENERGY LTD
CNECN CANACOL
- Stephane Foucaud
GeoPark Limited (NYSE: GPRK): Strong 3Q24 financials. Flow rates at Co...
• 3Q24 production of 33,215 boe/d had already been reported. • 3Q24 operating cash flow of ~US$126 mm was particularly high. Netting off a positive working capital movement of US$32 mm, the adjusted operating cash flow of US$94 mm is well above our forecast of US$65 mm. • In Argentina, the IP rates of the three exploration wells at Confluencia Norte are expected in the coming days. This is very material news and this could allow GeoPark to start converting some of the 39 mmbbl net 3C resources...
- Stephane Foucaud
ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Approvals to start well testing at Welchau rece...
• All necessary approvals have been received to commence flow testing operations on the Welchau-1 discovery well for the period from 30 October 2024 until 31 March 2025. • A workover rig has been mobilised to the Welchau-1 drill site with flow testing due to commence during the second half of November. There are multiple zones to test. The key test objectives being to confirm fluid type, reservoir productivity and likely reserves recovery. • Welchau-1 is a vertical exploration well that was cas...
- Stephane Foucaud
Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Tax restructuring adds cash flow and showca...
• Valeura has completed the restructuring of its Thailand subsidiary companies. • Valeura’s working interests in all its Thai III fiscal contracts, covering the Nong Yao, Manora and Wassana fields will now be held in a single subsidiary. This will allow Valeura to use its US$397 mm tax losses at Wassana against the profits at Nong Yao and Manora. • The amount of tax losses is higher than we anticipated (~US$350 mm). Under our Brent price assumptions (US$70/bbl from 4Q25), we estimate that Valeur...
- Stephane Foucaud
Tethys Oil AB (SSE: TETY): Well test results at Kunooz-1 weeks away
• 3Q24 production of 7,717 bbl/d had already been reported. • While the company moved from an overlift position of 2,357 bbl at the end of 2Q24 to a large underlift position of 28,993 bbl at the end of 3Q24, the 3Q24 operating cash flow of US$14.5 mm (before working capital) was very close to 2Q24 (US$15.4 mm). • The key near term newsflow is the results of the flow tests of the Ara/Birba and Bua formations at Kunooz-1 on Block-58. A positive result would be very material to Tethys and could lea...
- Stephane Foucaud
Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): High flow rate at EG infill well
• The C-45 infill well on Block G in Equatorial Guinea has been put on stream at a gross rate of 5 mbbl/d on a restricted choke. Production could increase as the choke size is increased. • While this is line with the company’s expectations, this takes gross production in EG to ~30 mbbl/d. • The second infill well (OF-19) has been drilled and is expected to be on stream in the next two weeks. This could take gross production to ~ 35 mmbbl/d assuming OF-19 is similar to C-45. ` • With gross produc...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 01/11/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.80 per share: Another positive operating update – The work-overs of two new existing wells have added 441 boe/d after a combined 20 m of previously unperforated reservoir pay was accessed. The first well is producing 410 boe/d. It was previously shut-in. The second well is producing an extra 31 boe/d (+65%) and continues to clean-up. With a total cost of 100 wells on Condor’s fields includ...
FP TOTAL SE
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
SEPL SEPLAT PETROLEUM DEVELOPMENT COMPANY
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
EOG EUROPA OIL & GAS (HOLDINGS) PLC
EGY VAALCO ENERGY INC.
A2PAZ7 TETHYS PETROLEUM
ENI ENI S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
SEI. SINTANA ENERGY
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
TOU TLOU ENERGY
SQZ SERICA ENERGY
DELT DELTIC ENERGY
BP. BP P.L.C.
AOI AFRICA OIL CORP
OKEA OKEA
NOG NOSTRUM OIL & GAS PLC
SEAPT NO SEACREST PETROLEO BERMUDA - SEAPT NO
J4V VAR ENERGI ASA
SHELL ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
CDR CONDOR ENERGIES INC
- Stephane Foucaud
Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): UK budget better than feared
• While the new fiscal regime for UK upstream oil and gas in yesterday’s UK budget incorporates a 3% increase in EPL (to 38%) and the elimination of the 29% investment uplift allowance for EPL purposes, this is a better outcome than feared. • While these changes were expected, the industry and investors had been concerned by the possibility that capex investment might not be fully deductible for EPL purposes. That risk has now been removed. • In addition, the 62.5% investment uplift allowance f...
- Stephane Foucaud
Tethys Oil AB (SSE: TETY): Encouraging results at Kunooz-1
• Large and extensive natural fractures have been encountered over 500 m (gross thickness) in the Birba and Buah formations at the Kunooz-1 well, resulting in very high permeabilities. The matrix porosity is low. • The presence of these large fractures could support significant volumes of fluids or gas in the formation. • Due to the fractures, 80 mbbl of drilling fluids were lost in the formation and no cuttings could be recovered. The nature of the formation fluid (gas, oil or water) is theref...
- Stephane Foucaud
New Zealand Energy Corp. (TSX-V: NZ): The Tariki-5 well needs to be si...
• The T-5 development well did not encounter the main reservoir target. The fault delimiting the reservoir is interpreted to be shallower (worst case scenario) than in the base case. The well will now be sidetracked to the west into the reservoir. The results are expected in November. • No natural fractures were encountered at the shallower Tikorangi secondary target. The sidetrack will provide a second opportunity to look for a fracture in this horizon. • Monumental Energy will fund the work-ov...
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