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Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 02.06.2026

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy Exploration (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.20 per share: Momentum accelerating. Potential resources increase in Austria – The Welchau‑1 well is scheduled for re‑entry in February to test the Reifling reservoir. An acid stimulation will be performed on the perforated interval to address wellbore damage and improve productivity in the carbonate section. The operation should also yield additional insight into the deeper Welchau...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Vaalco Energy (NYSE: EGY): Much stronger balance sheet than expected. ...

• Vaalco has agreed to divest its Canadian producing assets for US$25.6 mm, effective 1 February 2026. • Although the price is below our expectations, the Canadian portfolio is non‑core. In the context of (1) growing resource potential in Egypt following the successful H‑field exploration well in the Eastern Desert, and (2) the capital requirements associated with developing the Equatorial Guinea assets—where we estimate total project capex at approximately US$350 mm—we view the decision to recy...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Adding materiality to Welchau

• The continuous hydrocarbon shows and light oil recovered at Welchau‑1 indicate the presence of a light‑oil system within the broader Welchau anticline as well as a deeper gas condensate system in pressure communication with the historic Molln-1 gas discovery. • The latest mapping indicates the crest of Welchau structure is 500 m updip of Welchau-1 which ADX estimates to contain 11.7 mmbbl of P50 prospective resources (Pmean of 17.7 mmbbl). • The latest mapping also indicates the Welchau gas‑c...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Sintana Energy Inc. (TSX-V: SEI): Resolution of Colombia arbitration w...

• Sintana has reached a settlement with ExxonMobil regarding the arbitration related to the VMM‑37 block in Colombia. Under the agreement, Sintana will receive a total of US$9 million in cash, including an initial US$3 mm payment due within 60 days of execution (we assume receipt in April). • The remaining US$6 mm payment is contingent on regulatory approval in Colombia. For modelling purposes, we assume this will be received in 4Q26. • This settlement meaningfully strengthens Sintana’s balance ...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Momentum accelerating. Potential resources incr...

• The Welchau‑1 well is scheduled for re‑entry in February to test the Reifling reservoir. An acid stimulation will be performed on the perforated interval to address wellbore damage and improve productivity in the carbonate section. The operation should also yield additional insight into the deeper Welchau Deep gas prospect and a potential up‑dip oil accumulation. Further drilling could occur during the 2026/27 winter season. • Drilling at the HOCH‑1 shallow prospect is expected to begin in Mar...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 30.01.2026

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.40 per share: High production on low decline at Mateguafa – The M-8 well has been brought onstream in the C9 formation (30 ft of oil pay) at 230 bbl/d gross (115 bbl/d net) on a 28/128 choke with 78% water cut. The three C7 intervals did not flow commercial hydrocarbons. The well also encountered 12 ft of net pay in the Gacheta. Although M‑8 is the smallest contributor to field output,...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Condor Energies Inc. (TSX: CDR): Swift drilling. Smooth operations. Pr...

• The second horizontal well (A‑21) in Uzbekistan has now been drilled, delivering a 1,279 m open‑hole lateral, including 960 m within the carbonate reservoir exhibiting porosity above 6%. Reservoir quality exceeded pre‑drill expectations: cuttings from 223 mm of the lateral showed visible porosity of up to 12%, accompanied by strong gas shows. The well will now undergo acid stimulation (as planned)—using small‑diameter tubulars —before being tested. First production is expected in the second ha...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): High production on low decline at ...

• The M-8 well has been brought onstream in the C9 formation (30 ft of oil pay) at 230 bbl/d gross (115 bbl/d net) on a 28/128 choke with 78% water cut. The three C7 intervals did not flow commercial hydrocarbons. The well also encountered 12 ft of net pay in the Gacheta. Although M‑8 is the smallest contributor to field output, it was drilled as a step out the north where it has extended the field with additional drilling opportunities.. • Mateguafa production remains robust, with lower‑than‑ex...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 22.01.2026

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ New Zealand Energy (NZ CN)C; Target price of C$1.70 per share: Raising new equity – New Zealand is raising up to C$3.5 mm of new equity at a price of C$0.20 per share to progress its gas storage project. Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK46 per share: 2026: Drilling Resumes in Gabon, EG Normalises, and Visibility Improves on EG‑23 – 4Q25 production averaged 9,928 boe/d, comprising 5,343 boe/d from Gabon (as previously report...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Pharos Energy Plc (LSE: PHAR): Production boost expected by mid 2026

• FY25 production averaged 5,398 boe/d, comprising 4,095 boe/d from Vietnam and the balance from Egypt. This is consistent with the 5,391 boe/d reported in November and within the 5.2–6.0 mboe/d guidance range. • Two infill wells, TGT H1 and TGT H5, are now onstream and performing in line with expectations. We assume ~1.6 mboe/d of average gross production from each new TGT well over their first three months. • FY26 production guidance is 5.2–6.4 mboe/d, including 4.0–4.95 mboe/d from Vietnam an...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

2026: Drilling Resumes in Gabon, EG Normalises, and Visibility Improve...

• 4Q25 production averaged 9,928 boe/d, comprising 5,343 boe/d from Gabon (as previously reported by BW Energy), 1,511 boe/d from Tunisia, and 2,374 boe/d from Equatorial Guinea. • EG production remains constrained by unplanned facilities‑related downtime at Ceiba. The operator continues to expect a return to normal operating levels in 1Q26. • A new EG infill drilling programme could be sanctioned around YE26, with drilling expected to begin in 2027 or early 2028 and deliver growth thereafter. ...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Over US$300 mm FCF in 2026. Potential to...

• 4Q25 production averaged 33.5 mboe/d, including 1.4 mbbl/d from Lancaster, slightly ahead of our 32.7 mboe/d forecast. • The balance sheet at the end of 2025 was in line with expectations, taking into account the timing of liftings from Triton. • January‑to‑date production has averaged ~43 mboe/d, with current rates of ~50 mboe/d comprising 20 mboe/d at Bruce, 21 mboe/d at Triton, and 6 mbbl/d at Lancaster. The second Triton compressor has been commissioned, and with Evelyn EV‑02 and Belinda a...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Pulsar Helium Inc. (TSX-V: PLSR): US federal laboratories confirm conc...

• Independent analyses by the USGS Noble Gas Laboratory (Denver) and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (California) confirmed ~8% ⁴He and a ³He/⁴He isotopic ratio of ~0.10 Rₐ in the Jetstream #1 gas sample. These results are consistent with earlier measurements (7.7% ⁴He; ³He/⁴He = 0.104 Rₐ) and imply a ³He concentration of ~11.2–11.9 ppb. This is near the high end of an earlier reported value (14.5 ppb). • ³He remains a strategically important and exceptionally scarce isotope. It commands ...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

PetroTal Corp (AIM: PTAL): Budget stress‑case ready: production to tro...

• PetroTal expects 2026 production of 11,750–12,250 bbl/d, landing at the lower end of the indicative forecasts of 12-15 mbbl/d provided in November (vs. our prior forecast of 13.9 mbbl/d). • The FY26 capex budget is set at US$80–90 mm, which is US$10–20 mm below our expectations. • The FY26 budget includes two new Bretana wells, US$15 mm allocated to erosion control (total capex for the project unchanged) and minimal upgrades to Bretana water handling facilities. The budget also includes ~US$1...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 16.01.2026

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: Uzbekistan production boost: two new wells onstream in February – The first horizontal well is now onstream. Only the shallower interval has been tested to date, delivering 3.6 mmcf/d. The full ~1 km lateral — including the zones with the strongest gas‑show responses — has not yet been accessed. A larger‑diameter coiled‑tubing unit than is currently available is required to d...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

New Zealand Energy Corp. (TSX-V: NZ): Gas storage MOU signed with Gene...

• Monumental Energy will fund New Zealand Energy’s (NZE) share of work‑over costs at Waihapa‑Ngaere on Petroleum Mining Licences PML 38140 and PML 3814, in exchange for a royalty on incremental production. • The programme is expected to include the reperforations of Ngaere‑1 and Ngaere‑2 and repairs to the Waihapa H1 well, with an estimated total cost of C$0.7–0.8 mm. These activities could add approximately 200–260 bbl/d of gross production. • NZE holds a 50% working interest, but will remit 75...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Vaalco Energy (NYSE: EGY): Much stronger balance sheet than expected. ...

• FY25 WI production averaged 21,150 boe/d, landing comfortably within the upgraded guidance range of 20.8–22.2 mboe/d. • Vaalco ended FY25 with US$58.8 mm in cash, an increase of ~US$35 mm versus end‑September levels, achieved without drawing further on the RBL facility. • YE25 net debt position (based on cash and debt and excluding the rest of the balance sheet) was just US$1 mm, far below our expectation of ~US$100 mm. This reflects a substantial positive working‑capital swing, including a US...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Condor Energies Inc. (TSX: CDR): Uzbekistan production boost: two new ...

• The first horizontal well is now onstream. Only the shallower interval has been tested to date, delivering 3.6 mmcf/d. The full ~1 km lateral — including the zones with the strongest gas‑show responses — has not yet been accessed. A larger‑diameter coiled‑tubing unit than is currently available is required to displace the completion fluid; the smaller‑diameter unit used by Condor could not safely reach the end of the open‑hole lateral without risking damaging the open hole section. • Addition...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Ending 2025 with a bang. Busy 2026

• 4Q25 production averaged 24,721 bbl/d, comparing favourably with the 24,537 bbl/d reported during the first two weeks of November and coming in roughly 600 bbl/d above our forecasts. The strong quarter reflects the performance of the Jasmine drilling programme, where 9 new producers were drilled, including 8 horizontals. This campaign lifted Jasmine output from 7,300 bbl/d to 8,600 bbl/d. • The company reported ~US$306 mm in cash at YE25, ~US$20 mm above our expectations, supported by favourab...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

PetroTal Corp (AIM: PTAL): 4Q25 in line. Entering 2026 with a strong c...

• 4Q25 production averaged 15,258 bbl/d, comprising 14,766 bbl/d from Bretana and 492 bbl/d from the Los Angeles field. • The result is in line with our forecasts and consistent with the 14,983 bbl/d reported during the first 10 days of November. • Production from the six wells previously shut‑in due to tubing leaks has now been fully restored following workover operations. As a result, average production (including Los Angeles) during the first week of January has increased to ~15.6 mbbl/d, t...

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