AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 06.03.2026
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS________________________________________
ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.22 per share: 3.5x resources estimates increase at Welchau incorporating deeper potential – As expected, prospective resource estimates at Welchau have been upgraded, now incorporating the deeper Duplex Array 2 gas‑condensate interval. The sands in this interval are estimated to contain 165–262 bcf of prospective gas (P50–Pmean), together with 5.8–9.2 mmbbl of associated condensate. Combined prospective resources across Duplex Arrays 1 and 2 are now assessed at (P50–Pmean) 230–387 bcf, plus 8.1–13.6 mmbbl of condensate, representing more than a three‑fold increase versus previous estimates. These deeper resources could be accessed by extending the Welchau‑1 well by only ~600 m to reach the shallower duplex. ADX has two re‑entry options: sidetrack to test the up‑dip oil target, or deepen the existing wellbore to appraise the gas‑condensate interval. The unrisked NAV for the up‑dip oil target is ~A$0.16 per share, while the combined unrisked NAV for Duplex Arrays 1 and 2 is A$0.64 per share. One of these activities is assumed to occur around FY26. We have increased our target price from A$0.21 to A$0.22 per share to reflect the additional prospective resources. For now, we apply a very high risk factor (10%). With the Strait of Hormuz closed and Qatar LNG flows constrained, European natural‑gas prices have spiked, creating a more favourable backdrop for junior E&Ps with European gas exposure such as ADX Energy. ADX plans to spud the HOCH shallow‑gas prospect in April, with an unrisked NAV of A$0.01 per share and a 57% chance of success.
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Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.40 per share: Two positive well results. Low decline rate at Mateguafa – The M‑10 vertical well encountered approximately 20 ft of net oil pay with 20% porosity in the C7 formation, and around 25 ft of net oil pay in the C9. The C7 has been brought onstream on a very small 25/128 choke, producing 1,100 bbl/d gross (550 bbl/d net) of 31° API oil with a 6% water cut. This is a notably strong rate compared with other vertical wells at Mateguafa. The M‑9 horizontal well has been placed on production on a 31/128 choke at 850 bbl/d gross (425 bbl/d net) with a 16% water cut. Without much surprise, the M-8 well that came online with a 78% water cut will be converted into a water‑disposal well. Production from the other Mateguafa wells continues to show only shallow declines relative to the 28 January update. Arrow’s total production has reached 4,900 boe/d, above the 4,625 boe/d reported on 28 January and ahead of our 1Q26 forecast of 4,395 boe/d. With the M‑11 well scheduled to target both the C7 and C9 formations, our current 1Q26 production estimate now appears conservative. Cash at 01 February stood at US$7.2 mm, approximately US$1.4 mm above our expectations.
The next key catalyst is the drilling of the Icaco prospect in April, which carries an unrisked NAV of £0.12 per share.
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Pulsar Helium (PLSR LN/CN)C; Target price of £1.10 per share: High pressure at Jetstream#7 – Jetstream #7 encountered gas at a depth of ~642 meters with a preliminary bottom-hole pressure of approximately 953 psi. This high pressure aligns with the pressure encountered at Jetstream #6 at similar depth, suggesting a consistent pressure regime across the wells. This is important because Jetstream #7 is a significant step out well located 2.2 miles northwest of Jetstream #1.
SIntana Energy (SEI CN/LN)C; Target price of C$1.55 per share: Seismic programme starts in Uruguay – The 3D seismic acquisition campaign on AREA OFF-1, offshore Uruguay, has commenced. It will cover a total of ~4,300 km2. Acquisition fieldwork will take place over two seasons: February-April 2026 and November 2026-April 2027, with most acquisition relevant to the key prospects on AREA OFF-1 expected to be completed in the first season. Fast-track results from seismic acquired in the first season are expected in 4Q26. Sintana and Chevron hold 40% and 60% WI, respectively. This is key to define the prospects ahead of drilling.
IN OTHER NEWS
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AMERICAS
Alvopetro Energy (ALV CN): Production update in Brazil and Canada – February production was 3,058 boe/d.
Frontera Energy (FEC CN): Recommending offer for upstream assets from Parex Resources (PXT CN) – Frontera has determined that the Parex offer to acquire Frontera’s assets constitutes a superior proposal to GeoPark’s.
Galp Energia (GALP LI): 4Q25 results. Increasing dividend – FY26 dividend will be 4% higher than FY25. 4Q25 production in Brazil was 115 mboe/d.
GeoPark (GPRK US): Equity raise from Colombian strategic investor – GeoPark is raising US$107 mm of new equity priced at US$8.31 per share from Jaime and Gabriel Gilinski. Grupo Gilinski is a Colombian family office. The funds will be used to pursue M&A opportunities including potential access in Venezuela and fund high-return organic development in Colombia
Gran Tierra Energy (GTE LN/CN/US): 4Q25 results – 4Q25 production in Colombia, Ecuador and Canada was 46,344 boe/d. YE25 net debt was US$658 mm. YE25 2P reserves were estimated at 258 mmboe, down from 293 mmboe at YE24. The reduction is associated with Canada where 74 Glauconitic locations have been moved to contingent. In South America, the 2P Reserves Replacement Ratin was 102%.
Parex Resources (PXT CN): 4Q25 results – 4Q25 production in Colombian was 48.6 mboe/d. The company has achieved a 2P reserves replacement ratio of 152% (YE25 2P reserves of 178.2 mmboe). YE25 net cash was US$25 mm. Production over the first two months of 2025 averaged 46,150 boe/d.
Predator Oil & Gas (PRD LN): Reserves update in Trinidad – Cory Moruga is expected to hold 8.7 mmbbl 2P reserves.
ASIA AND AUSTRALASIA
Thailand: suspending oil export – In the context of the events in the Middle East, Thailand has requested domestic producers to prioritize sales on the domestic market.
EUROPE
BlueNord (BNOR NO): Operating update in Denmark – February production was 43.6 mboe/d. The Tyra hub delivered an average of 23.7 mboe/d increasing to 25 mboe/d over the last two weeks..
Equinor (EQNR NO): Discovery in Norway – 25-89 mmboe have been discovered in the Snore area.
Harbour Energy (HBR LN): 4Q25 results – FY25 production was 474 mboe/d. YE25 2P reserves and 2C resources were estimated at 3.0 bnboe (YE24: 3.2 bnboe) including 1.1 bnboe of 2P reserves. YE25 net debt was US$4.4 bn. Harbour has declared a 2025 final dividend of US$150 mm. Production over the first two months of 2026 averaged 509 mboe/d. The company expects to produce 475-500 mboe/d in 2026 with total capital expenditure of US$2.2-2.4 bn. Production is expected to be maintained in the range of 475-500 mboe/d through to 2030, supported by total capex of US$2.0-2.3 bn per annum.
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP LN)/ShaMaran Petroleum (SNM CN): Production shut-in – Production at Atrush, Sarsang and Shaikan has been shut-in. An explosion occurred at one of the processing facilities in the Sarang field.
ShaMaran Petroleum (GKP LN): 4Q25 results – 4Q25 WI production in Kurdistan was 20 mboe/d. YE25 was US$105 mm. YE25 WI 2P reserves were estimated at 67.1 mmbbl (YE24: 71.5 mmbbl).
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Kosmos Energy (KOS US/LN): 4Q25 results – 4Q25 WI production in Ghana, US and EG was 67.9 mboe/d. YE25 2P reserves were estimated at ~500 mmboe. YE25 net debt was US$3 bn.
EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
10/03/2026: Repsol (REP SM) – Capital Market Day
Alvopetro Energy is a resource company and is engaged in the exploration for, and the acquisition, development and production of, hydrocarbons in the Reconcavo, Tucano, Camamu-Almada and Sergipe-Alagoas basins in onshore Brazil. Co. develops producing hydrocarbons by appraising and developing existing discoveries and exploring in areas considered by management to be prospective for hydrocarbon resources. Co.'s assets consist of interests in three producing fields and 16 exploration blocks comprising 148,500 gross acres onshore Brazil.
Front Range Resources is engaged in oil and natural gas exploration and production focusing on horizontal multi-stage frac development in Montney, Bluesky, Wilrich and Falher formations in the Deep Basin area of west central Alberta.
Equinor is engaged in oil and gas exploration and production activities. Co. is primarily focused on exploration, development and production of oil and gas on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS). Co.'s operations are organized into four segments. The Development and Production Norway and Development and Production International segments explore, develop, produce and extract crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. The Marketing, Processing and Renewable Energy segment markets, trades, transports and processes oil and natural gas and renewable energy. The Other segment consists of global well and project delivery, research and develpoment, and business development.
Frontera Energy is a publicly traded oil and gas company engaged in the exploration, development and production of heavy crude oil and natural gas in Colombia, Peru, Brazil, and Guatemala.
Galp Energia is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates in the following segments: exploration and production, with activities relating to exploration, development and production of hydrocarbons, particularly in Angola, Brazil and Mozambique; refining and marketing, which owns refineries in Portugal and also includes activities relating to the retail and wholesale commercialization of oil products; and gas and power, which covers the purchasing, commercialization, distribution and storage of natural gas and electric and thermal power production. As of Dec 31 2014, Co. had proved and probable reserves of 638.0 million barrels of oil equivalent.
Gran Tierra Energy, together with its subsidiaries, is a company focused on oil and gas exploration and production in Colombia. Co. is primarily engaged in the exploration and production of oil and natural gas. Co. has one reportable segment based on geographic organization, Colombia. As of Dec 31 2017, Co. had total estimated proved reserves of 59.3 million barrels of oil and natural gas equivalent, consisting of 58.9 million barrels of oil and 2.1 million cubic feet of natural gas.
Kosmos Energy is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company operates as a deepwater independent oil and gas exploration and production company focused along the Atlantic Margins. The company's assets include production offshore Ghana, Equatorial Guinea and U.S. Gulf of Mexico, as well as gas development offshore Mauritania and Senegal. The company also maintains a sustainable exploration program balanced between proven basin infrastructure-led exploration (Equatorial Guinea and U.S. Gulf of Mexico), emerging basins (Mauritania, Senegal and Suriname) and frontier basins (Cote d'Ivoire, Namibia and Sao Tome and Principe).
Parex Resources is engaged in oil and natural gas exploration, development and production in South America and the Caribbean region. As of Dec 31 2010, Co. had gross proved light and medium oil reserve of 1,066 thousand barrels (net: 980 thousand barrels).
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC seeks to consolidate the acquisition of a specific non-operated oil and gas business opportunity in the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, to generate income for Co., and exploration and appraisal assets in the Licensing Options offshore Ireland that form an existing operating business operated by POGV. Both businesses are consistent with Co.'s focus on responsible, environmentally aware, investment in the fossil fuel industry.
Shamaran Petroleum is a Canadian-based oil and gas company engaged in the business of oil and gas exploration and development. Co. is in the pre-production stages of an exploration and development campaign in respect of petroleum properties located in the Kurdistan Region of Northern Iraq.
Sintana Energy is a development stage company engaged in oil and gas exploration and development activities in the United States.
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
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