AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 14/11/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS
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ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.20 per share: A$3.5 mm funding boost ahead of busy activity programme – ADX has raised A$3.5 mm through a new equity placement at A$0.026 per share. Investors in the placement will also receive one option for every two new shares subscribed, exercisable at A$0.039 per share. The capital raise strengthens ADX’s balance sheet ahead of its 2026 work programme and effectively removes the funding overhang that had weighed on the stock. ADX Company is also preparing for a potential dual listing on Oslo Børs’ Euronext Growth market. Key near-term activity includes the resumption of flow testing at Welchau in January. Operations will commence with fluid sampling and pressure measurements in the already-perforated Reifling formation—the shallowest reservoir. Incorporating the new equity issuance, our updated unrisked NAV for the Reifling formation stands at approximately A$0.26 per share. ADX’s shallow gas drilling campaign in Austria is set to begin in February, targeting the HOCH-1 (50% WI) and GOLD-1 (100% WI) wells. The recent financing provides ADX with the flexibility to drill GOLD-1 independently (retaining 100% WI), should it choose to do so. These prospects carry a high probability of success, estimated between 51% and 81%. In parallel, ADX will acquire additional seismic data over its Sicily Channel gas permit, which will support an updated assessment of the permit’s prospective resources. Reflecting the equity raise in our valuation, we revise our target price to A$0.20 per share, implying a 6.5x multiple on the current share price.
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Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.40 per share: Discovery at Mateguafa Attic - The M-5 vertical well at Mateguafa Attic encountered approximately 26 feet of net oil pay in high-quality Guadalupe sandstone (22% porosity), along with an additional 11 feet in the Carbonera C7 formation. The discovery will contribute new reserves, as none had previously been attributed to Mateguafa Attic. The well was brought online in the Guadalupe interval, delivering a gross oil rate of 570 bbl/d with an 8% water cut on a tight 17/128 choke. Net to Arrow, this equates to ~285 bbl/d — a strong result for a vertical well. The well had four exploration targets: Gacheta, Ubaque, C7 and Guadalupe. The C7 was the lowest risk target as it had been encountered in a neighboring well. Encountering the Guadalupe was a positive surprise. Success at M-5 has derisked three follow-up wells. M-6 has already spudded, with drilling, testing, and completion expected to span 3–4 weeks. Positioned higher in the structure, M-6 could confirm an extensive pay zone in the Guadalupe formation. A successful outcome may pave the way for an expanded development plan featuring horizontal wells. Corporate production is now ~4,000 boe/d. M-6 and M-7 could each contribute an additional 350 bbl/d net. We have now moved Mateguafa Attic into our Core NAV and increased the risking factor on the assumed 2.5 mmbbl net resource from 60% to 75%. In 2026, Arrow then plans to test the Icaco, Macoya and the Capullo prospects. Our combined unrisked NAV for these three wells is £0.31 per share.
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Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.90 per share: 3Q25 results – 3Q25 gross production in Uzbekistan was 9,978 boe/d. The first horizontal well is expected to be put in production in December. First LNG in Kazakhstan is expected in 3Q26.

PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)C; Target price of £0.80 per share: Preserving capital in the context of drilling delays impacting FY26 production – 3Q25 production and net cash figures as of end-September have already been disclosed. Bretana field output averaged 14,983 bbl/d during the first 10 days of November. Only one of the five wells previously shut due to tubing leaks has been worked over and returned to production so far. Drilling activity is now postponed to mid-2026, following further delays with PetroTal’s own rig (previously expected to restart in 1Q26). This materially impacts the production trajectory and operating cash flow. With minimal activity expected until summer, we now anticipate a decline in output through 1H26, followed by a gradual recovery. FY26 production is forecast at 12–15 mbbl/d. The lower end of the range reflects no activity in 2026. We were previously assuming ~19.5 mbbl/d. In light of reduced production and Brent assumptions of US$60–65/bbl, PetroTal has opted to suspend its dividend until further notice. Greater clarity on the 2026 development programme is expected in January. PetroTal may prioritize expanding water handling capacity, which would enable the reactivation of high water cut wells currently offline due to water handling constraints. Bretana wells can reach water cuts of up to 98%. For context, producing 15–20 mbbl/d of oil from such wells would generate ~750–1,000 mbbl/d of total fluid, while current water handling capacity stands at just ~170 mbbl/d. Ahead of the FY26 budget release, we have revised our production forecast to ~14 mbbl/d, while maintaining our capex assumption at ~US$100 mm. We have changed our target price to £0.80 per share.
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Vaalco Energy (EGY US/LN)C; Target price of US$10 per share: FY25 production guidance increased. CI on track – WI production averaged 19,887 boe/d in 3Q25, exceeding our forecast of ~19,160 boe/d. This outperformance was driven by stronger-than-expected volumes from Gabon (7,118 boe/d vs our estimate of 6.6 mboe/d and company guidance of 6.4–7.1 mboe/d). Despite a full platform shutdown in July for planned maintenance, Gabon’s production impact was less than anticipated. On the back of robust Gabon performance and sustained drilling activity in Egypt, the lower end of FY25 production guidance has been raised from 19,250 boe/d to 20,600 boe/d. Gabon guidance now stands at 7.9–8.4 mboe/d (previously 7.0–8.3 mboe/d), while Egypt is revised to 10.4–11.1 mboe/d (from 9.75–11.1 mboe/d). The timeline of the CI Baobab redevelopment project has the FPSO restarting production in 2Q26. Drilling will start in 2H26. Underlying operating cash flow for 3Q25 (pre-working capital movements) was ~US$13.7 mm, consistent with our expectations. FY25 capex guidance has been reduced from US$250–300 mm to US$225–260 mm, primarily due to delays in the Gabon drilling programme but also due to higher capital efficiency. We have shifted ~US$25 mm from our FY25 forecast (now ~US$250 mm) into 2026 (now ~US$270 mm). In EG, Vaalco is evaluating a development concept centered on a vertical well with a subsea wellhead and an FPSO, instead of long deviated well with a MOPU in shallow water. This approach could enhance oil recovery. With CI production restart now just 5–8 months away, the period of negative free cash flow is nearing its end—removing a key risk and enhancing investor appeal. The investment case centers on a fully funded doubling of production while sustaining a high level of dividend distribution (currently ~7% yield). Excluding Kossipo and Baobab Phase 6, Vaalco’s 2026-2029 cumulative free cash flow is projected to match its current market capitalization.
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Pulsar Helium (PLSR LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.80 per share: good results at Jetstream#3 – The Jetstream #3 well has reached TD at 1,069 m. As reported previously, the bottom hole pressure of the well is estimated at 960 psi; which is much higher than the pressure encountered at Jetstream #1 and #2 (185 psi and 2025 psi respectively). Jetstream #3 will now be logged and tested.

Serica Energy (SQZ LN)C; Target price of £3.05 per share: NEO NEXT pre-empts acquisition of bp’s interests in Culzean – NEO NEXT has decided to take up its rights of pre-emption to acquire bp’s stake in in the P111 and P2544 licences. We did not carry any value for these assets in our valuation for Serica.

IN OTHER NEWS
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AMERICAS

Buccaneer Energy (BUCE LN): Disappointing drilling results in USA – The Allar #1 well (32.5% WI) in the Fouke area of the Pine Mills Field did not encounter any commercial hydrocarbon accumulation.

Frontera Energy 9FEC CN): 3Q25 results – Spinning off Infrastructure business – 3Q25 production in Colombia was 39.2 mboe/d. Production was impacted by adverse weather conditions as well as related operational and logistical challenges, which have since been resolved. The 2025 rainy season stands among the most severe in a decade. Net debt at the end of September was US$253 mm. The FY25 production guidance has been reduced from 39.5-41 mboe/d to 39-39.5 mboe/d with capex narrowed from US$196-248 mm to US$200-223 mm..

Touchstone Exploration (TXP LN/CN): 3Q25 results. Disappointing drilling results – 3Q25 production in Trinidad averaged 5,141 boe/d. Net debt at the end of September was US$77.75 mm. Production for October has declined to 4,691 boe/d (September: 4,852 boe/d). The initial rate at the Cascadura-5 well (brought on stream in November) is only 2.4 mmcf.d and 106 bbl/d. This is well below expectations of IP30 of 17.0 mmcf/d of natural gas and 275 bbl/d of associated liquids. 26-degree API gravity crude oil was encountered for the first time Cascadura. This adds further complexity to the understanding of the field's structure. The FY25 production guidance has been reduced from 5 mboe/d to 4.7 mboe/d.

ASIA PACIFIC

Georgina Energy (GEX LN): Acquiring helium assets in Australia – Georgina is acquiring 30% interests in EP125 with the Mt-Kitty-1/Jacko Bore-1 well, 45% of EP112 with Dukas 1 ST-1 and 60% WI in EP82 with the Magee/Mahler-Magee 1 well from Central Petroleum. Total P50 prospective helium resources are estimated at 86.9 bcf. In return Georgina will issue new shares to Central such that Central holds 25% of Georgina. The transaction is subject of Georgina raises £7 mm of new funds.

EUROPE

BlueNord (BNOR NO): Production update in Denmark – In October, the Tyra hub delivered an average production of 16.5 mboe/d. The base assets Dan, Gorm, and Halfdan produced 20.0 mboe/d. This was slightly below the company’s expectations due to a flowline leak at the Dan hub, which resulted in approximately 60% production reduction for Dan over a seven-day period.

Equinor (EQNR NO): Dry hole in Norway – Exploration well 34/6-9 S targeting the Avbitertang prospect was dry.

Perenco: Acquiring UK SNS assets – Perenco is acquiring 50% WI in Blythe and Elgood from Ithaca Energy. The assets hold 23 mmboe of 2P reserves.

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

Genel Energy (GNL LN): Operating update in Kurdistan – Gross production levels are now back to ~80,000 bbl/d, whilst domestic sales prices averaged US$31/bbl for the quarter. WI production up to 30 September was 16,920 bbl/d.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Meren Energy (MER CN): 3Q25 results – 3Q25 WI production in Nigeria was 31.1 mboe/d. Net debt at the end of September was US$183.3 mm.

Reconnaissance Energy Africa (RECO CN): Drilling result in Namibia – The Kavango West 1X exploration well has encountered multiple oil shows, as well as strong and consistent natural gas markers on mud logs throughout the Otavi reservoir package. Due to the nature of the hydrocarbon’s indications, the Company plans to conduct wireline tests and fluid sampling within the Otavi formation.

EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
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18/11/2025 – Southern Energy (SOUC LN/CN): 3Q25 results
20/11/2025 – Panoro Energy (PEN NO): Investor day