AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 27.02.2026
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS________________________________________
ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of C$0.21 per share: Well test results at Welchau support interpretation of an updip light oil accumulation – Following a small acidisation treatment (6 m³ across 45 m of perforations) in the Reifling interval at the Welchau‑1 well, gas and light oil were recovered at surface during swabbing operations. Although stable inflow was not achieved—indicating that the limited acid volume did not access the open fracture network—the response is encouraging given that the formation had previously been unresponsive. The light oil recovered from the Reifling Formation is non‑biodegraded and matches the density of the oil sampled from the deeper Steinalm Formation during drilling. The oil–water contact is still interpreted to lie within the Steinalm, ~125 m below the top of the Reifling, indicating the light‑oil column at Welchau-1 has a 500 m updip component within the mapped crest of Welchau anticline. The well has been suspended to allow monitoring of pressure build‑up and fluid inflow. Depending on cost considerations, the company may use coil tubing to inject a larger acid volume to reach open fractures. An appraisal well near the structural crest could be drilled around YE26. Prospective resources at the Welchau deep‑gas prospect are likely to increase, as the current 65–125 bcf (P50–Pmean) estimate accounts for only two of the five horses in the shallower Duplex 1 array, while the deeper Duplex 2 has not yet been included in the resource assessment. We have improved our risking factor on Welchau and have increased our target price from A$0.20/sh to A$0.21/sh. ADX plans to spud the HOCH shallow gas prospect in April..
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Corcel (CRCL LN)C; Target price of 1.40p per share: Operating update in Angola – The 2D Seismic acquisition at KON-16 Block has been completed. The high quality of the seismic data provides clear imaging of key pre salt structures. This is expected to de-risk multiple pre-salt and post-salt drilling opportunities within KON-16.
Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK55 per share: Transformational acquisition in EG – Panoro is acquiring 40.375% WI in Block G, Equatorial Guinea from Kosmos Energy for US$180 mm, effective 1 January 2025. Closing is expected in August, with an estimated ~US$140-150 mm payable at completion and up to US$39.5 mm in deferred contingent consideration tied to oil prices and production over 2026–2028. The acquisition is highly material, increasing Panoro’s WI in Block G by ~3.9× and adding 46 mmbbl of 2P reserves (+110% versus the company’s current 2P base) and 29 mmbbl of 2C resources. By YE26, WI production from EG is expected to reach ~11 mbbl/d, taking group output to ~20 mboe/d, roughly double FY25 levels. With Kosmos facing liquidity constraints, EG was not a priority for capital allocation. Panoro’s enlarged position and Trident’s operatorship should support increased capital allocation to workovers and new wells. Panoro’s WI production from EG could rise progressively to ~19 mbbl/d by 2031. There are no pre‑emption rights and the transaction has already received approval in Equatorial Guinea. The only outstanding regulatory step is authorization from CEMAC (Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa). The transaction will be funded through a US$150 mm tap issuance within the company’s existing bond and a US$49 mm equity raise priced in line with yesterday’s close. The NOK50 mm per quarter dividend policy for 2025 implies a ~7% yield and aligns with expectations. Production and capex guidance are also in line with our forecasts. Incorporating the transaction and the equity raise, our target price increases from NOK 46 to NOK 55 per share.
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PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)C; Target price of £0.55 per share: 76% 2P Reserves Replacement Ratio despite Brent price drop – YE25 reserves stand at 66.4 mmbbl (1P), 110.2 mmbbl (2P) and 185.5 mmbbl (3P). After adjusting for 7.1 mmbbl of 2025 production, PetroTal added 6.4 mmbbl of 1P and 3.6 mmbbl of 2P reserves during the year, while 3P reserves fell by 20.7 mmbbl. The reduction in 3P volumes reflects volumes now considered unlikely to be produced within the remaining 15‑year licence life under current oil price assumptions. After 6.9 mmbbl of 2025 production, YE25 1P and 2P reserves at Bretana are essentially unchanged versus YE24, despite a US$5.5–11.5/bbl reduction in Brent price assumptions. Additions stem from strong well performance in the V2 sands, which supports a higher recovery factor (oil‑in‑place unchanged). PetroTal has also added six new 2P drilling locations, including five new 1P locations, and incorporated four new water disposal wells to meet higher water‑handling requirements. Water‑handling capacity is expected to increase to 500 mbbl/d in the 1P case (from 320 mbbl/d today) and 800 mbbl/d in the 2P case. The expanded drilling programme and the required water‑handling upgrades increase future 2P development capex by roughly US$260 mm from YE25 levels, on top of the ~US$75 mm of capex planned for 2025. Incorporating YE25 reserves and updated future capex, we have changed our target price to £0.55 per share. The YE25 reserves release provides clearer visibility on forward development costs—particularly the water‑handling expansion—which is important for reinforcing confidence in the Bretana growth profile, with production expected to resume its upward trajectory from 3Q26.
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Pulsar Helium (PLSR LN/CN)C; Target price of £1.10 per share: Equity raise to progress Topaz – Pulsar has raised US$10 mm of new equity at a price of £0.80 per share, a key milestone that closes the funding gap required to advance the Topaz project towards FID and ultimately into production. The equity proceeds will fund: (1) an extended well‑testing programme at Topaz (seven wells drilled to date), (2) seismic acquisition and interpretation, (3) a pre‑feasibility study for integrated helium and CO₂ production, (4) further land consolidation around Topaz, and (5) procurement of long‑lead processing equipment. In addition, approximately US$1 mm will be allocated to geophysical and geochemical surveys at the Falcon project in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. Near‑term catalysts include the results of the extended well‑testing programme and the subsequent resource update. Given the higher‑than‑expected pressures encountered during appraisal drilling, the potential resource base could increase meaningfully. Pulsar has also commenced drilling Jetstream #7, targeting a planned TD of 3,000 ft with optional deepening to 5,000 ft. The well lies 2.2 miles northwest of Jetstream #1, representing a significant step‑out appraisal. A final investment decision at Topaz could be taken by YE26, enabling the booking of helium reserves. The equity financing materially reduces funding risk. While we have not revised our resource estimates ahead of the CPR, recent drilling results support a higher likelihood of development. We therefore increase the probability of success for the prospective resources from 38% to 45%. Our target price rises from £0.90 to £1.10 per share, reflecting the updated ReNAV and the enlarged share count (additional 9.2 mm shares). Our unrisked NAV for Pulsar, based on Topaz alone, stands at £2.34 per share. Any success in Michigan or Greenland would provide further upside.
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Vaalco Energy (EGY US/LN)C; Target price of US$11.50 per share: Kossipo shines - resources and WI increased. Potential reserves booking by YE26 – New seismic over Kossipo in Côte d’Ivoire has further de‑risked the structure, increasing gross 2C resources from ~90 mmboe to ~102 mmboe. With Canadian Natural Resources choosing not to participate in the development as it refocuses on Canada, VAALCO’s working interest rises from 27.39% to 60%, with PetroCI holding the balance as a paying partner. This shift is highly material: VAALCO gains ~37 mmboe of additional WI 2C resources, becomes operator, and will control the development timeline. An FDP is planned for 2H26, which could allow reserves booking. At the 2Q25 CMD, first oil was guided for 2030 with ~12 mboe/d net to VAALCO at 27.39% WI; at 60% WI, the project could deliver more than 24 mboe/d net at plateau. The Baobab FPSO is now offshore East Africa and expected to reach Côte d’Ivoire in late March, keeping the 2Q26 restart on track. Strong oil prices and timely FPSO delivery de‑risk the redevelopment. While the investment case remains anchored in a fully funded doubling of production alongside a robust dividend (~5% yield), the enlarged Kossipo resource base adds meaningful depth and long‑term value to the portfolio. Incorporating the higher Kossipo resources, our target price increases from US$10 to US$11.5 per share. Côte d’Ivoire is now VAALCO’s most significant asset base.
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IN OTHER NEWS
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AMERICAS
Alvopetro (ALV CN): Reserves update and 2026 budget – YE25 2P reserves in Brazil and Canada increased 43% to 13.1 mmboe vs. YE24. The company also held ~15 mmboe prospective resources and 4 mmboe contingent resources (best case). FY26 capex is estimated at C$23 mm.
Diversified Energy (DEC US/LN): Acquisition of US gas assets. 4Q25 results – Diversified is acquiring 62 mmcfe/d production and 397 bcfe of PDP reserves in East Texas from Sheridan Production for US$245 mm. The acquisition price will be funded through existing liquidities from the company’s debt facilities. 4Q25 production was 1,198 mmcfe/d with an exit rate of 1,254 mmcfe/d. The company expects to produce 1,170 to 1,210 mmcfe/d in 2026. YE25 net debt was US$2.8 bn.
GeoPark (GPRK US): 4Q25 results – 4Q25 production had been previously reported. YE25 net debt was US$417 mm.
Helix Exploration (HEX LN): First helium production. Operational issue at well – First gas has been reached at the Rudyard project. Helium gas is being processed from 3 production wells initially. The company has started negotiations for an offtake agreement. At Inez, parts of the drill string have broken off from the drilling equipment. These drilling components need to be retrieved from the well.
NG Energy (GASX CN): Resources update in Colombia – WI 2P reserves are estimated at 132 bcf. In addition the company holds 114 WI 2C contingent resources and 264 bcf prospective resources. Production at Maria Conchita is 12 mmcf/d. Seven new wells are expected to be drilled in 2026.
Parex Resources (PXT CN): Offer to acquire Frontera Energy’s Colombian E&P assets – Parex has submitted a proposal to acquire all of Frontera’s Colombian upstream business in an all-cash offer for consideration of US$500 mm, plus the assumption of debt, in addition to a contingent payment of US$25 mm with terms that are substantially the same as GeoPark’s existing acquisition agreement previously announced. The Proposal represents a US$125 mm premium compared to the existing acquisition agreement with GeoPark.
Touchstone Exploration (TXP LN/CN): Reserves update in Trinidad – 4Q25 production in Trinidad was 4,877 boe/d. 2P reserves were estimated at ~50 mmboe in line with the YE24 reserves estimates as acquisitions offset the negative technical revisions of 5.9 mmboe at Cascadura Block B and FY25 production.
Vista Energy (VIST US): 4Q25 results – 4Q35 production in Argentina was 135,414 boe/d. YE25 net debt was US$2.6 bn. YE25 proven reserves were 588 mmboe.
ASIA AND AUSTRALASIA
Jadestone Energy (JSE LN): Guidance and reserves update – YE25 2P reserves totalled 56.2 mboe, a decrease of 8.3 mmboe on YE24, primarily due to 7.0 mboe of production in 2025 and the remainder due to technical and economic revisions across assets. YE25 net debt was US$89 mm. The FY26 production guidance has been set at 18,000-21,000 boe/d with US$50-80 mm capex. The unlevered free cash flow guidance for the 2025-2027 period has been reduced from US$270 mm to US$200-240 mm at US$70/bbl Brent.
EUROPE
BlueNord (BNOR NO): 4Q25 results – 4Q25 production in Denmark was 42.4 mboe/d. The Halfdan North and Valdemar Bo South development projects are expected to require development and maintenance capex of ~US$100-150 mm over the period 2027 to 2030.
Denmark: Reconsidering natural gas – Denmark is exploring the possible extension until 2050 of production from the Tyra gas condensate field.
Eni (ENI IM): 4Q25 results – 4Q25 adjusted net earnings were EUR1.2 bn. with 1.85 mmboe/d production. The FY25 organic proven reserves replacement ratio was 167%. FY26 production growth is expected to be consistent with the 2025-28 Plan guidance with capex of EUR7 bn.
EnQuest (ENQ LN): Operating update – FY25 production was 45,606 boe/d including Vietnam. YE25 net debt was US$435 mm. Due to severe weather in the UK North Sea, damage occurred at the Ninian Central Platform in mid-January, resulting in an unplanned outage for Magnus, in mid-January. Magnus production was reinstated on 22 February. The company expects to produce 41-45 mboe/d in 2026 with US$220 mm capex (including decommissioning).
Star Energy (STAR LN): Operating update in the UK – FY25 production was 1,886 boe/d. FY26 production is expected to stand at ~2 mboe/d. YE25 net debt was £4.3 mm.
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
Capricorn Energy (CNE LN): Operating update – YE25 production in Egypt was 21 mboe/d (43% liquid). The company expects to produce 18-22 mboe/d in 2026 with US$85-95 mm capex. The company held YS$103 mm in net cash at the end of 2025.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
bp/Eni (BP LN/ENI IM): Well test update in Namibia – Rhino Resources has announced that the Volans-1 X exploration well has flowed 33 mmcf/d of gas and 5.3 mbbl/d of condensate on test. Rhino and Azule Energy (bp/ENI) each hold 42.5% WI.
BW Energy (BWE NO): Reserves update – The company held 243 mmboe 2P reserves at YE25 (YE24: 161 mmboe). This includes ~85 mmboe in Gabon and the balance in Brazil. Net 2C resources are estimated at 390 mmboe.
Meren Energy (MER NO/CN): 4Q25 results – 4Q25 WI production in Nigeria was 28.1 mboe/d. YE25 net debt was US$155 mm. The company held 87.7 mmboe of 2P reserves at YE25. Meren expects to produce 23-28 mboe/d in 2026 with US$100-140 mm capex.
Murphy Oil (MUR US): Dry hole in Ivory Coast – The Caracal-1X exploration well was dry.
Seplat Energy (SEPL LN): 4Q25 results – 4Q25 production in Nigeria was 119.2 mboe/d. The ANOH gas plant achieved first gas in January 2026 and production is stable at 50-70 mmcf/d. The company has declared a dividend of US$8.3c per share for 4Q25, up 11% vs 3Q25. Seplat expects to produce 135-155 mboe/d in 2026 with US$360-440 mm capex. YE25 2P reserves are estimated at 1 bnboe (down ~42 mmboe vs. YE24). The company also held 1.5 bnboe 2C resources (up 235 mmboe vs. YE24). YE25 net debt was US$673.3 mm (down 25% vs YE24).
EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
02/03/2026: Galp Energy (GALP LI) – 4Q25 results
03/03/2026: Kosmos Energy (KOS US/LN) – 4Q25 results
Africa Oil is an international oil and gas exploration company based in Canada with oil interests in Kenya, Ethiopia, Puntland (Somalia) and Mali. Co. is an exploration stage enterprise that participates in oil and gas projects located in sub-Saharan Africa.
Alvopetro Energy is a resource company and is engaged in the exploration for, and the acquisition, development and production of, hydrocarbons in the Reconcavo, Tucano, Camamu-Almada and Sergipe-Alagoas basins in onshore Brazil. Co. develops producing hydrocarbons by appraising and developing existing discoveries and exploring in areas considered by management to be prospective for hydrocarbon resources. Co.'s assets consist of interests in three producing fields and 16 exploration blocks comprising 148,500 gross acres onshore Brazil.
BP is an integrated oil and gas group based in the United Kingdom. Co. is engaged in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas; refining, marketing, supply and transportation; and the manufacture and marketing of petrochemicals. Co. operates globally, with business activities in Europe, the U.S., Canada, Russia, South America, Australasia, Asia and parts of Africa. Co. operates in two business segments: Exploration and Production - including oil and natural gas exploration and development and production; and Refining and Marketing- activities include the refining, manufacturing, supply and trading, marketing and transportation of crude oil, petroleum and petrochemicals.
BW Energy Ltd. BW Energy Limited is a Bermuda-based oil and gas company engaged in oil and gas exploration and production activities. The Company is involved in the acquisition, development and production of oil and natural gas fields. It has a diversified portfolio of production and development assets offshore West Africa and Brazil, and holds interests in three hydrocarbon licenses in Gabon, Brazil and Namibia. Its Dussafu Marin Permit and the associated Ruche Exclusive Exploitation Area (EEA) production license are located approximately 50 kilometers (km) off the coast of Gabon. The Ruche EEA covers an area of approximately 850 square kilometers. The Maromba discovery is located approximately 100 kilometers offshore in the southern part of the Campos Basin. The Kudu gas field is some 130 km offshore and covers an area approximately 4,500 square kilometers. The Company's subsidiaries include BW Energy Dussafu B.V., BW Energy Gabon Pte Ltd, BW Energy Gabon SA and BW Energy Holdings Pte Ltd.
Cairn Energy is an oil and gas exploration and development company. Co. has three groups of business unit: Senegal, which focuses on appraising the discoveries offshore Senegal and to identify further exploration prospects for drilling; U.K and Norway, which includes exploration activities in the North Sea, Norwegian Sea and Barents Sea and management of Co.'s development assets in the U.K. North Sea; and International, which consists of all other regions where Co. holds exploration licenses, including Greenland, Ireland, Morocco, Western Sahara, Mauritania and the Mediterranean. As at Dec 31 2016, Co. had total proved plus probable reserves of 51.5 million barrels of oil equivalent.
Regency Mines is engaged as a natural resource exploration and development company. Co. manages a balanced portfolio of mineral and oil and gas projects and investments at different stages of development. Co. is active in multiple international locations including the U.K., Papua New Guinea, the U.S. and Greenland.
Diversified Gas & Oil is an Appalachian Basin focused natural gas and crude oil operations company.
Eni is engaged in the oil and gas exploration and production, gas marketing operations, management of gas infrastructures, power generation, petrochemicals, oil field services and engineering industries. Co.'s operations are divided into three segments; Exploration and Production (oil and natural gas exploration and field development and production, as well as LNG operations), Gas and Power (supply, trading and marketing of gas and electricity, managing gas infrastructures for transport, distribution, storage, re-gasification, and LNG supply and marketing), and Refining and Marketing (supply of crude oil, refining and marketing of refined products). Co. maintains operations in 73 countries.
Enquest is an oil and gas production and development company. As of Dec 31 2016, Co.'s principal U.K. assets were its interests in the producing operated oil fields Heather/Broom, Thistle/Deveron, the Dons area, the Greater Kittiwake Area, Alma/Galia and Scolty/Crathes. In addition, Co. had interests in the Kraken development and also a non-operated interest in the producing Alba oil field. In Malaysia, Co.'s operated assets comprise the PM8/Seligi Production Sharing Contract and the Tanjong Baram Risk Services Contract. At Dec 31 2016, Co. had proven and probable reserves of 215.0 million barrels of oil equivalent.
IGas Energy is engaged in exploring for, appraising, developing and producing oil and gas. Co. has producing assets in Scotland, East Midlands and the Weald Basin and is seeking to develop shale resources across its acreage position focusing on the East Midlands, Yorkshire and the North West of England. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. had proved plus probable reserves of 13.4 million barrels of oil equivalent, which consisted of 12.7 million barrels of oil and 3.95 billion cubic feet of gas.
Jadestone Energy is engaged in the evaluation, acquisition, exploration and development of oil and gas properties.
Murphy Oil is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an oil and natural gas exploration and production company. The company explores for and produces crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids worldwide. The company's principal exploration and production activities are conducted in United States by wholly owned Murphy Exploration & Production Company - USA and its subsidiaries, in Canada by wholly-owned Murphy Oil Company Ltd. and its subsidiaries, and in Australia, Brazil, Brunei, Mexico and Vietnam by wholly-owned Murphy Exploration & Production Company - International and its subsidiaries. The company's hydrocarbon production is in United States, Canada and Brunei.
Panoro Energy is an international independent oil and gas company engaged in the exploration and production of oil and gas resources in Brazil and West Africa. In Brazil, Co. participates in a number of oil and gas licenses located in the Santos basin outside the south-east coast of Brazil and in the Camamu-Almada basin in the state of Bahia. In West Africa, Co. participates in a number of licences in Nigeria and Gabon. As of Dec 31 2013, Co.'s commercial production is from the Manati field in Brazil.
Parex Resources is engaged in oil and natural gas exploration, development and production in South America and the Caribbean region. As of Dec 31 2010, Co. had gross proved light and medium oil reserve of 1,066 thousand barrels (net: 980 thousand barrels).
Touchstone Exploration Inc., formerly Petrobank Energy and Resources Ltd., is an oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company's segments include Trinidad and Canada. The Company's core producing properties are located onshore within Trinidad. The Company's producing properties in Trinidad include Coora 1, Coora 2, New Dome, South Palo Seco, Barrackpore, Fyzabad, Icacos, Palo Seco and San Francique. The Company's exploratory properties in Trinidad include Bovallius, Moruga, New Grant, Ortoire, Otaheite, Piparo, Rousillac, Siparia and St. John. Its exploratory properties in Canada include Beadle, Druid, Luseland and Winter. The gross acres of the properties include approximately 106,604. The Company operates a total of approximately 370 wellbores on the Coora blocks. The New Dome block is located onshore in the southwest portion of Trinidad in the Ward of Siparia. The Barrackpore Block is located approximately 11 kilometers southeast of the city of San Fernando.
VAALCO Energy is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development and production of crude oil. The company is primarily engaged in its Etame Production Sharing Contract related to the Etame Marin block located offshore the Republic of Gabon in West Africa. The company also owns interests in an undeveloped block offshore Equatorial Guinea, West Africa.
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
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