AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 09/05/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS________________________________________
Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK49 per share: ~12 mbbl/d in 1Q25. Re-iterating FY25 guidance – 1Q25 production was ~12 mbbl/d, including 6,841 bbl/d in Gabon, 3,661 bbl/d in Equatorial Guinea and 1,492 bbl/d in Tunisia. Production in Gabon and Equatorial Guinea was previously reported by BW Energy and Kosmos Energy. Equatorial Guinea output was temporarily impacted by unplanned downtime at the Ceiba Cluster, but operations are now back online. We project ~3,800 bbl/d WI production in Equatorial Guinea over 2Q-4Q25. Output in Tunisia has increased compared to 4Q24 (1,467 bbl/d) following low-cost workovers. The FY25 production guidance of 11 mbbl/d to 13 mbbl/d has been re-iterated. Assuming US$60/bbl over 2Q-4Q25, we estimate US$75 mm free cash flow in 2025. The company is authorized to distribute up to US$45 mm via dividends and share buybacks, representing a total yield exceeding 19%. Lower Brent prices could present attractive acquisition opportunities. We anticipate that Panoro will drill new exploration wells in Gabon in 2026. We also anticipate greater visibility on the potential of the new licences in EG and in Gabon.
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Serica Energy (SQZ LN)C; Target price of £2.70 per share: Catalysts ahead – The envisaged merger between EnQuest and Serica is not proceeding at this time. Given the drop in Brent since the potential transaction leaked on 7 March, this outcome is unsurprising. Given Serica’s prospects as a standalone company, there was no imperative for the company to force a deal. There are multiple catalysts to the share price in the coming months. Production at Triton is expected to restart in June. With the W7Z well on the Guillemot North West field (Serica: 10%) and the EV02 well on the Evelyn field (Serica: 100%) coming on stream, production at Triton alone has the potential to reach up to 30,000 boe/d net to Serica. Solidified drilling plans at Kyle and the first new wells on Bruce since 2012 could support production >40,000 boe/d until the end of the decade. Some contingent resources at BKR (33.4 mmboe) and Kyle (11.1 mmboe) may be converted into 2P reserves in 2025, as Serica evaluates infill drilling opportunities. Kyle could be sanctioned in 1H26, pending regulatory approvals, with production of 6-10 mbbl/d in 2028. An improved political environment may also be the catalyst for FID on the Buchan Horst prospect. Serica continues to actively pursue other M&A opportunities in the UK and internationally With a final dividend for 2024 of £0.10/sh and with Auctus assumed 2025 interim dividend of £0.06/sh, Serica could distribute a total of £0.16/sh in dividends in 2025, representing a ~12.5% yield. As we incorporate the FY25 production guidance, the YE24 2P reserves, higher £/US$ exchange rate (US$1.30/£ vs. US$1.23/£ previously) and lower Brent price assumptions for 2025, we have changed our target price to £2.70/sh.
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Zephyr Energy (ZPHR LN)C; Target price of £0.15 per share: Well test success unblocks the Paradox – The State 36-2 well achieved peak rates of 2,848 boe/d, including 856 bbl/d of oil, on a small 18/64 choke. During a separate, 48-hour phase of testing on an 8/64 choke, production ranged between 700-1,066 boe/d, with 200-400 bbl/d of oil. Importantly, there was no material drop in bottomhole pressure in either test, confirming that sustained production at these levels is feasible long-term. Zephyr highlighted that well deliverability is more than sufficient for commercial operations. In addition to the high flow rates, there are important take-aways from these results. The ~85 bbl/mmcf condensate yield (excluding NGLs) significantly exceeds our initial expectations of 30 bbl/mmcf, positively impacting the project NPV. Water cut remains minimal at just 0.5%. Fibre-optic data from the 5,000-ft lateral confirms hydrocarbon inflow along its entire length, suggesting that the previous EUR estimate of 2 mmboe may be conservative. In the future, longer laterals (up to 2 miles) could enhance recovery even further. The State 36-2 well has not undergone fracture stimulation. This confirms that the field could be developed at a lower cost. The well test success vindicated Zephyr’s theory that the Paradox had been missed and that new technology could turn it into a material basin. This result materially enhances the profile of Zephyr. Incorporating the well test results and the higher estimated condensate yield, we have raised our TP from £0.13/sh to £0.15/sh. Our unrisked NAV for Cane Creek is £0.14/sh, with eight additional overlying reservoirs of similar potential. The total unrisked NAV for the business stands at £1.13/sh.
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IN OTHER NEWS
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AMERICAS
Canacol Energy (CNE CN): 1Q25 results – 1Q25 sales n in Colombia were 128.7 mmcf/d. Net debt at the end of March was US$677 mm.
GeoPark (GPRK US)C: 1Q25 results – 1Q25 pro forma production in Colombia, Ecuador and Argentina was 36,279 bbl/d (previously announced). The FY25 production guidance of 35 mbbl/d has been re-iterated. Net debt at the end of March was US$349 mm.
Mosman Oil & Gas (MSMN LN): Resources estimates in USA – The Sagebrush Project in Colorado is estimated to hold 0.2 bcf 2C contingent resources of helium and 1.7 bcf of hydrocarbons.
Parex Resources (PXT CN): 1Q25 results – 1Q25 production in Colombia was 43,658 boe/d. The FY25 production guidance of 43-47 mboe/d with US$285-315 mm capex has been re-iterated. Net cash at the end of May was US$31 mm.
Touchstone Exploration (TXP LN/CN): Raising new equity for Trinidad – Touchstone is raising US$20.5 mm of new equity at a price of 20.5 p per share. The proceeds of the raise will fund the drilling and tie-in of the Cascadura-4ST1 and Cascadura-5 development wells and the drilling of two Central block development wells.
ASIA AND AUSTRALASIA
Conrad Asia Energy (CRD CN): Raising capital for Indonesia – Conrad has received firm commitments to raise ~A$9.0 mm at an issue price of A$0.65 per CHESS Depositary Interest. The proceeds of the raise will allow the company to take FID on the Mako project.
Georgina Energy (GEX LN): Industrial gas resources update in Australia – The Mt Winter prospect is now expected to hold 127 bcf of helium, 117 bcf of hydrogen and 944 bcf of hydrocarbon prospective resources (2U). This represents an increase of 15% for hydrogen and helium and 3% for hydrocarbons.
Murphy Oil (MUR LN): Discovery in Vietnam - The Lac Da Hong-1X exploration well encountered 106 feet of net oil pay. The well flowed at a maximum rate of 2500 bbl/d of light oil on test.
EUROPE
Aker BP (AKERBP NO): 1Q25 results – 1Q25 production in Norway was 441 mboe/d. The FY25 production guidance remains unchanged at 390-420 mboe/d. The company continues to expect to distribute US$2.52 per share for 2025. Net debt at the end of March was US$3.2 bn.
Equinor (EQNR NO): 1Q25 results – Adjusted net income for the period was US$1.79 bn with 2,123 ,boe/d production.
Harbour Energy (HBR LN): 1Q25 operating update – 1Q25 production was 500 mboe/d including 180 mboe/d in Norway, 165 mboe/d in the UK and 74 mboe/d in Argentina. The company now anticipates producing 455-475 mboe/d in 2025 (450-475 mboe/d previously) with US$2.4-2.5 bn capex (US$2.4-2.6 bn previously). The final dividend for 2024 has been set at US$227.5 mm for a total annual distribution of US$455 mm (in line with guidance). Net debt at the end of March was US$4.2 bn (US$4.7 bn at YE24). The estimated gross resources at the Kan oil discovery has been increased by 50% to ~150 mmboe.
Star Energy (STAR LN): MOU with Veolia for geothermal in the UK – Star Energy has signed a memorandum of understanding with Veolia to develop large scale geothermal heating projects in the UK.
Tenaz Energy (TNP CN): 1Q25 results – 1Q25 production in Canada was 2,893 boe/d. Including the Netherlands acquisition, Tenaz expects to produce 9-9.5 mboe.d in 2025.
MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
Capricorn Energy (CNE LN): Licence consolidation in Egypt – The Badr El Din, Obaiyed, North Alam El Shawish, North Matruh, Sitra, BED 3, and BED 2 and BED 17 development concessions, along with the North Um Baraka exploration concession, will be consolidated into a single integrated concession providing up to a 20-year life through an initial 10-year term, plus two five-year extensions for the development areas. The contractor profit share will increase to 27-29% with cost recovery of 40% and excess cost recovery of 20%. The cost pools will be merged and gas prices will now be US$4.75/mcf. Capricorn will pay EGPC a signature bonus of US$10 mm with two further bonus payments of US$5 mm on the first and second anniversaries of the signature date. Capricorn will commit to invest US$100 mm over the first five years.
Genel Energy (GENL LN): 1Q25 operating update in Kurdistan – 1Q25 WI production in Kurdistan was 20,520 bbl/d. 1Q25 sales price has been consistent with the previous quarter around US$35/bbl. Net cash at the end of March was US$135 mm.
ShaMaran Petroleum (SNP CN): 1Q25 results – 1Q25 net production in Kurdistan was 23 mbbl/d. Net debt at the end of March was US$109 mm.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
BW Energy (BWE NO): 1Q25 results – 1Q25 production had been reported previously. Net debt at the end of March was US$312 mm. The company has re-iterated its FY25 production guidance of 11-12 mmbbl. BW has taken FID on the Maromba development and the Golfinho Boost project in Brazil. Golfinho is expected to add 3 mbbl/d while first oil at Maromba is expected in 2H27. As a result, the FY25 capex guidance has been increased from US$260-285 mm to US$650-700 mm. The Kharas prospect in Namibia is expected to be drilled in 2H25.
Kosmos Energy (KOS US/LN): 1Q25 results – Net production was 60.5 mboe/d. Net debt at the end of March was US$2.85 bn. The FY25 production guidance of 70-80 mboe/d is unchanged. Gross oil production at Jubilee was 66.6 mbbl/d. Gross oil production at TEN was 16.9 mbbl/d. Gross production at EG was 25.7 mbbl/d.
EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
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12/05/2025 – Diversified Energy (DEC LN/US): 1Q25 results
12/05/2025 – PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN): 1Q25 results
13/05/2025 – Condor Energies (CDR CN): 1Q25 results
14/05/2025 – Africa Oil (AOI SS/CN): 1Q25 results
14/05/2025 – Valeura Energy (VLE CN): 1Q25 results
15/05/2025 – DNO (DNO NO): 1Q25 results
Aker BP ASA engages in the exploration, development, and production of petroleum resources on the Norwegian Shelf. In addition, Co. has a separate Johan Sverdrup business unit to manage its interest.
BW Energy Ltd. BW Energy Limited is a Bermuda-based oil and gas company engaged in oil and gas exploration and production activities. The Company is involved in the acquisition, development and production of oil and natural gas fields. It has a diversified portfolio of production and development assets offshore West Africa and Brazil, and holds interests in three hydrocarbon licenses in Gabon, Brazil and Namibia. Its Dussafu Marin Permit and the associated Ruche Exclusive Exploitation Area (EEA) production license are located approximately 50 kilometers (km) off the coast of Gabon. The Ruche EEA covers an area of approximately 850 square kilometers. The Maromba discovery is located approximately 100 kilometers offshore in the southern part of the Campos Basin. The Kudu gas field is some 130 km offshore and covers an area approximately 4,500 square kilometers. The Company's subsidiaries include BW Energy Dussafu B.V., BW Energy Gabon Pte Ltd, BW Energy Gabon SA and BW Energy Holdings Pte Ltd.
Cairn Energy is an oil and gas exploration and development company. Co. has three groups of business unit: Senegal, which focuses on appraising the discoveries offshore Senegal and to identify further exploration prospects for drilling; U.K and Norway, which includes exploration activities in the North Sea, Norwegian Sea and Barents Sea and management of Co.'s development assets in the U.K. North Sea; and International, which consists of all other regions where Co. holds exploration licenses, including Greenland, Ireland, Morocco, Western Sahara, Mauritania and the Mediterranean. As at Dec 31 2016, Co. had total proved plus probable reserves of 51.5 million barrels of oil equivalent.
Equinor is engaged in oil and gas exploration and production activities. Co. is primarily focused on exploration, development and production of oil and gas on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS). Co.'s operations are organized into four segments. The Development and Production Norway and Development and Production International segments explore, develop, produce and extract crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. The Marketing, Processing and Renewable Energy segment markets, trades, transports and processes oil and natural gas and renewable energy. The Other segment consists of global well and project delivery, research and develpoment, and business development.
Genel Energy is a holding company. Co. is principally engaged in the business of oil and gas exploration and production. Co. has three segments: Oil, which is comprised of the producing assets, Taq Taq and Tawke, which are located in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) and makes predominantly all sales to the Kurdistan Regional Government; Gas, which is comprised of the upstream and midstream activity on Miran and Bina Bawi also in the KRI; and Exploration, which is comprised of its exploration activity, principally located in the KRI, Somaliland and Morocco. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. had proved plus probable working interest reserves of 161.0 million barrels of oil equivalent.
IGas Energy is engaged in exploring for, appraising, developing and producing oil and gas. Co. has producing assets in Scotland, East Midlands and the Weald Basin and is seeking to develop shale resources across its acreage position focusing on the East Midlands, Yorkshire and the North West of England. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. had proved plus probable reserves of 13.4 million barrels of oil equivalent, which consisted of 12.7 million barrels of oil and 3.95 billion cubic feet of gas.
Kosmos Energy is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company operates as a deepwater independent oil and gas exploration and production company focused along the Atlantic Margins. The company's assets include production offshore Ghana, Equatorial Guinea and U.S. Gulf of Mexico, as well as gas development offshore Mauritania and Senegal. The company also maintains a sustainable exploration program balanced between proven basin infrastructure-led exploration (Equatorial Guinea and U.S. Gulf of Mexico), emerging basins (Mauritania, Senegal and Suriname) and frontier basins (Cote d'Ivoire, Namibia and Sao Tome and Principe).
Mosman Oil and Gas is a New Zealand and Australia oil exploration and development company. Co. is engaged in examining resource opportunities in overlooked and emerging resource areas. Co. objective is to discover economic oil and gas reserves and realize value through the development, joint venture or sale of its oil and gas interests.
Murphy Oil is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an oil and natural gas exploration and production company. The company explores for and produces crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids worldwide. The company's principal exploration and production activities are conducted in United States by wholly owned Murphy Exploration & Production Company - USA and its subsidiaries, in Canada by wholly-owned Murphy Oil Company Ltd. and its subsidiaries, and in Australia, Brazil, Brunei, Mexico and Vietnam by wholly-owned Murphy Exploration & Production Company - International and its subsidiaries. The company's hydrocarbon production is in United States, Canada and Brunei.
Panoro Energy is an international independent oil and gas company engaged in the exploration and production of oil and gas resources in Brazil and West Africa. In Brazil, Co. participates in a number of oil and gas licenses located in the Santos basin outside the south-east coast of Brazil and in the Camamu-Almada basin in the state of Bahia. In West Africa, Co. participates in a number of licences in Nigeria and Gabon. As of Dec 31 2013, Co.'s commercial production is from the Manati field in Brazil.
Parex Resources is engaged in oil and natural gas exploration, development and production in South America and the Caribbean region. As of Dec 31 2010, Co. had gross proved light and medium oil reserve of 1,066 thousand barrels (net: 980 thousand barrels).
Serica Energy is an independent oil and gas company with production, development and exploration licence interests in the U.K. Continental Shelf and exploration interests in Ireland, Morocco and Namibia. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. had proved plus probable reserves of 3.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, which consisted of 2.1 million barrels of oil and 10.40 billion cubic feet of gas.
Shamaran Petroleum is a Canadian-based oil and gas company engaged in the business of oil and gas exploration and development. Co. is in the pre-production stages of an exploration and development campaign in respect of petroleum properties located in the Kurdistan Region of Northern Iraq.
Touchstone Exploration Inc., formerly Petrobank Energy and Resources Ltd., is an oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company's segments include Trinidad and Canada. The Company's core producing properties are located onshore within Trinidad. The Company's producing properties in Trinidad include Coora 1, Coora 2, New Dome, South Palo Seco, Barrackpore, Fyzabad, Icacos, Palo Seco and San Francique. The Company's exploratory properties in Trinidad include Bovallius, Moruga, New Grant, Ortoire, Otaheite, Piparo, Rousillac, Siparia and St. John. Its exploratory properties in Canada include Beadle, Druid, Luseland and Winter. The gross acres of the properties include approximately 106,604. The Company operates a total of approximately 370 wellbores on the Coora blocks. The New Dome block is located onshore in the southwest portion of Trinidad in the Ward of Siparia. The Barrackpore Block is located approximately 11 kilometers southeast of the city of San Fernando.
Rose Petroleum is an oil and gas (O&G) and mining company with exploration assets and an operational crushing and flotation mill. Co.'s principal activities are the exploration and development of O&G resources together with the evaluation and acquisition of other mineral exploration targets, principally gold, silver, uranium and copper, and the development and operation of mines in Mexico. In Co.'s O&G division, the area of focus is on two unconventional oil and gas basins in the U.S.: the Uinta Basin and the Paradox Basin. In its mining division, Co. continues its milling operations through its subsidiary, Minerales VANE S.A. de C.V., which owns the SDA Mill in Mexico.
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
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