AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 16.01.2026
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS________________________________________
Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: Uzbekistan production boost: two new wells onstream in February – The first horizontal well is now onstream. Only the shallower interval has been tested to date, delivering 3.6 mmcf/d. The full ~1 km lateral — including the zones with the strongest gas‑show responses — has not yet been accessed. A larger‑diameter coiled‑tubing unit than is currently available is required to displace the completion fluid; the smaller‑diameter unit used by Condor could not safely reach the end of the open‑hole lateral without risking damaging the open hole section. Additional equipment is being sourced to enable full access to the lateral section. At the second horizontal well, drilling of the lateral section is expected to begin later this week. The lateral will target the same shallow carbonate interval successfully tested in the first well. Completion and testing operations are scheduled to start in early February. Drilling has also commenced at a vertical well using the newly mobilized second rig. The well is expected to intersect the target reservoirs by the end of January, with initial test rates anticipated by mid‑February. This well is located in an under‑developed gas field currently producing from a single downdip well, where Condor perforated an 8‑metre carbonate interval that has averaged 5.5 mmcf/d over the past ten months. The field has meaningful upside potential, with up to six horizontal wells planned up‑dip across a large, undeveloped structural closure.
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New Zealand Energy (NZE CN)C; Target price of C$1.70 per share: Funding agreement to increase production. New Management team – Monumental Energy will fund New Zealand Energy’s (NZE) share of work‑over costs at Waihapa‑Ngaere on Petroleum Mining Licences PML 38140 and PML 3814, in exchange for a royalty on incremental production. The programme is expected to include the reperforations of Ngaere‑1 and Ngaere‑2 and repairs to the Waihapa H1 well, with an estimated total cost of C$0.7–0.8 mm. These activities could add approximately 200–260 bbl/d of gross production. NZE holds a 50% working interest, but will remit 75% of net receipts from incremental production to Monumental until cost recovery is achieved, and 25% thereafter. Key near‑term catalysts include finalising a binding agreement with Genesis to advance the gas storage project. Our unrisked NAV for the gas storage project stands at C$3.48 per share. Toby Pierce has been appointed CEO of NZE. He previously served as CEO of TAG Oil, which operated assets in New Zealand. Robert Bose has been named Executive Chairman. He is currently CEO of Sintana Energy and a Managing Member of Charlestown Energy Partners, a private investment vehicle focused on hydrocarbon and natural‑resource microcaps. Both Toby Pierce and Robert Bose bring extensive experience in oil‑and‑gas microcaps, strengthening NZE’s leadership bench.
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PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)C; Target price of £0.80 per share: 4Q25 in line. Entering 2026 with a strong cash position – 4Q25 production averaged 15,258 bbl/d, comprising 14,766 bbl/d from Bretana and 492 bbl/d from the Los Angeles field. The result is in line with our forecasts and consistent with the 14,983 bbl/d reported during the first 10 days of November. Production from the six wells previously shut‑in due to tubing leaks has now been fully restored following workover operations. As a result, average production (including Los Angeles) during the first week of January has increased to ~15.6 mbbl/d, tracking the indicative profile PetroTal provided in November. We currently forecast 14.1 mbbl/d for 1Q26 and 13.9 mbbl/d for FY26, though these assumptions will be updated once the company releases its budget toward the end of January. We continue to assume that drilling activity will not resume until mid‑2026. Jorge Osorio joined PetroTal as Chief Operating Officer. Jorge Osorio held senior operational and project leadership roles at Ecopetrol and BP. He was Vice President of upstream at Ecopetrol, managing a portfolio delivering ~730 mbbl/d. We reiterate our £0.80 per share target price. Following the recent share price decline—driven by the suspension of the dividend and the likely resulting shift in the shareholder register—the stock offers significant deep value at current levels. In our view, the company also could be a credible takeover candidate.
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Vaalco Energy (EGY LN/US)C; Target price of US$10 per share: Much stronger balance sheet than expected. Exploration success in Egypt opens a new area – FY25 WI production averaged 21,150 boe/d, landing comfortably within the upgraded guidance range of 20.8–22.2 mboe/d. Vaalco ended FY25 with US$58.8 mm in cash, an increase of ~US$35 mm versus end‑September levels, achieved without drawing further on the RBL facility. YE25 net debt position (based on cash and debt and excluding the rest of the balance sheet) was just US$1 mm, far below our expectation of ~US$100 mm. This reflects a substantial positive working‑capital swing, including a US$40 mm payment received in the final week of the year. EGPC receivables were reduced by US$82 mm to US$31 mm, with receivables now largely current. We also note that FY25 liftings exceeded production by 950 boe/d, and capex may have been lower than anticipated due to the late start of the Gabon drilling programme in 4Q25. The Baobab FPSO remains on schedule to depart the Dubai dry dock in early February for its return to Côte d’Ivoire. With production restart now less than six months away—and with a materially stronger cash position—the company’s balance‑sheet risk has meaningfully diminished, improving the overall risk profile. The investment case continues to centre on a fully funded doubling of production while maintaining a robust dividend (currently yielding ~6%).
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Valeura Energy (VLE CN)C; Target price of C$12.70 per share: Ending 2025 with a bang. Busy 2026 – 4Q25 production averaged 24,721 bbl/d, comparing favourably with the 24,537 bbl/d reported during the first two weeks of November and coming in roughly 600 bbl/d above our forecasts. The strong quarter reflects the performance of the Jasmine drilling programme, where 9 new producers were drilled, including 8 horizontals. This campaign lifted Jasmine output from 7,300 bbl/d to 8,600 bbl/d. The company reported ~US$306 mm in cash at YE25, ~US$20 mm above our expectations, supported by favourable working‑capital movements and a reversal of the underlift position. FY25 sales volumes were broadly aligned with FY25 production. The 2026 production guidance has been set at 19.5–22.5 mbbl/d, with US$175–195 mm in capex, including US$7 mm for exploration and US$70 mm for the Wassana redevelopment (vs. our prior US$175 mm estimate excluding exploration). Opex is guided at US$190–220 mm. The Wassana redevelopment remains on schedule for first oil in 2Q27, with expected output of ~10 mbbl/d. In Turkey, Transatlantic has re‑entered and hydraulically stimulated the Devepinar‑1 well, which has flowed to surface continuously for more than three weeks. The company is now installing production tubing to enable a longer‑term test. A 2018 reserves audit estimated ~20 tcfe of gross unconventional prospective resources across the Turkish licences.
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IN OTHER NEWS
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AMERICAS
Eco Atlantic Oil & Gas (EOG CN/ECO LN): Navitas farms into Falklands’ assets – Navitas Petroleum has signed a non-binding Memorandum of Agreement with JHI for a farm-in to acquire a 65% WI in the PL001 North Falklands Basin Licence. PL001 is adjacent to the Navitas operated Sea Lion Development.
Pantheon Resources (PANR LN): Raising new equity for Alaska – Pantheon has raised US$10 mm of new equity priced at £0.07 per share to support near-term appraisal activities across the Ahpun and Kodiak projects.
Parex Resources (PXT CN): Operating update – 4Q25 production in Colombia was 48,606 boe/d. The Guapo-1 exploration well was not commercial.
EUROPE
ExxonMobil (XOM US)/Shell (SHEL LN): Cancelling assets divestment in the UK – ExxonMobil and Shell have decided not to proceed with the sale of their joint assets in the southern UK North Sea to Viaro Energy.
Licences award in Norway – Var Energi (VAR NO) has been offered 14 new production licences covering mature areas. Aker BP (AKERBP NO) has been awarded 22 licences, DNO (DNO NO), 17, OKEA Energy (OKEA NO), 3 and Equinor 35.
OMV (OMV AG): Operating update – 4Q25 production was 544 mboe/d.
Repsol (REP SM): Operating update – 4Q25 production was 354 mboe/d.
Var Energi (VAR NO): Well test unlock resources in Norway – The latest appraisal well drilled ~7 km northeast of the Goliat field tested two intervals with each showing maximum flow rates of more than 4000 bbl/d, confirming reservoir quality and adding recoverable volumes. Including the latest well, the Goliat Ridge is estimated to contain gross discovered recoverable resources of 35 to 138 mmboe, and with additional prospective resources taking the total gross potential to over 200 mmboe.
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
TotalEnergies (TTE FP): Acquiring licence in Lebanon – TotalEnergies (35%, operator), Eni (35%) and QatarEnergy (30%) are entering Block 8 exploration permit offshore Lebanon. The initial work program on Block 8 consists of the acquisition of a 1,200 km² 3D seismic survey.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Afentra (AET /LN): Resources update in Angola – Afentra’s total 2C WI contingent resources across Blocks 3/05, 5A and 24 now amount to 87.3 mmboe representing an increase of over 400% versus the previously disclosed 2C resources WI of 20.9 mmboe.
Aker BP (AKERBP NO): 4Q25 update in Norway – Aker BP’s 4Q25 WI production averaged 410.6 mboe/d.
BW Energy (BWE NO): 4Q25 update in Gabon and Brazil – 4Q25 WI production was 25.2 mbbl/d including 22.4 mbbl/d at Dussafu in Gabon.
PetroNor E&P (PNOR NO): Operating update in Congo – 4Q25 WI production was 4,608 bbl/d. YE25 production was 5,400 bbl/d.
TotalEnergies (TTE FP): Selling Nigerian assets – Total is selling its 10% non-operated interest in the Renaissance JV licenses onshore Nigeria to Vaaris. This represents ~ 16 mboe/d (mostly oil). Total will also transfer to Vaaris its 10% participating interest in the 3 other licenses of Renaissance JV which are producing mainly gas (OML 23, OML 28 and OML 77).
EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
19/01/2026 – Parex Resources (PXT CN): FY26 guidance
21/01/2026 – Serica Energy (SQZ LN): Operating update
Aker BP ASA engages in the exploration, development, and production of petroleum resources on the Norwegian Shelf. In addition, Co. has a separate Johan Sverdrup business unit to manage its interest.
BW Energy Ltd. BW Energy Limited is a Bermuda-based oil and gas company engaged in oil and gas exploration and production activities. The Company is involved in the acquisition, development and production of oil and natural gas fields. It has a diversified portfolio of production and development assets offshore West Africa and Brazil, and holds interests in three hydrocarbon licenses in Gabon, Brazil and Namibia. Its Dussafu Marin Permit and the associated Ruche Exclusive Exploitation Area (EEA) production license are located approximately 50 kilometers (km) off the coast of Gabon. The Ruche EEA covers an area of approximately 850 square kilometers. The Maromba discovery is located approximately 100 kilometers offshore in the southern part of the Campos Basin. The Kudu gas field is some 130 km offshore and covers an area approximately 4,500 square kilometers. The Company's subsidiaries include BW Energy Dussafu B.V., BW Energy Gabon Pte Ltd, BW Energy Gabon SA and BW Energy Holdings Pte Ltd.
Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas is an oil and gas exploration company focused on petroleum opportunities in Namibia. Through its wholly owned Namibian subsidiary, Eco Namibia, it holds five petroleum licenses issued by the Government of the Republic of Namibia. Eco Namibia holds three offshore license blocks covering more than 25,000 square kilometers (6,177,000 acres), in the Walvis Basin. Eco Namibia also holds two onshore license blocks covering 30,000 square kilometers (7,413,000 acres).
Exxon Mobil operates or markets products in United States and other countries through its divisions and affiliated companies. The company's business involves exploration for, and production of, crude oil and natural gas and manufacture, trade, transport and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals and other products. In United States, the company's development activities are focused on the onshore United States, in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico and the Bakken oil play in North Dakota. Gas development activities are also focused on the Marcellus Shale of Pennsylvania and West Virginia, the Utica Shale of Ohio and the Haynesville Shale of East Texas and Louisiana.
OMV is an international energy company with activities in Exploration and Production (E&P), Refining and Marketing including petrochemicals (R&M), and Gas and Power (G&P). Co. explores and develops oil and gas resources and supply energy to over 100 million people. OMV has three operating segments: Exploration and Production (E&P), Refining and Marketing, including petrochemicals (R&M), and Gas and Power (G&P), as well as the segment Corporate and Other (Co&O).
Pantheon Resources is engaged in the investment in oil and gas exploration and development. Co. operates in the U.K. through its parent undertaking and in the U.S. through subsidiary companies. Co. operates in two reportable segments: USA and Head Office. Non-current assets, income and operating liabilities are attributable to the USA, whilst most of the corporate administration is conducted through Head Office. As of June 30 2017, Co. held 58% working interest in the VOBM#1 & VOBM#2H wells in Polk County. Co. also held 75% working interest in VOBM#4 in Tyler County.
Parex Resources is engaged in oil and natural gas exploration, development and production in South America and the Caribbean region. As of Dec 31 2010, Co. had gross proved light and medium oil reserve of 1,066 thousand barrels (net: 980 thousand barrels).
Repsol is an oil and gas company. Co. is engaged in all the activities relating to the oil and gas industry, including exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas, transportation of oil products, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas, refining, the production of a wide range of oil products and the retailing of oil products, oil derivatives, petrochemicals, LPG and natural gas, as well as the generation, transportation, distribution and supply of electricity. Co. operates in more than 40 countries. Co.'s operations are divided into four segments: Upstream, Downstream, LNG and Gas Natural Fenosa.
Sintana Energy is a development stage company engaged in oil and gas exploration and development activities in the United States.
Sterling Energy, together with its subsidiary is an upstream oil and gas company. Co. is an operator of exploration and production licenses, with a primary geographic focus on Africa. Co. is primarily focused on the development of its Somaliland Odewayne block, and Mauritania C-10 exploration block. Co. holds 40% working interest in the Somaliland Odewayne exploration block. This unexplored frontier acreage position comprises an area of 22,840 sq. km. Co. holds 13.5% working interest in the Mauritania C-10 exploration block. Block C-10 covers an area of approximately 8,025 sq. km. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. had a total proven plus probable oil reserves of 73,000 barrels of oil equivalent.
Total is an international integrated oil and gas company also active in solar and biomass energy sources. Co. engages all aspects of the petroleum industry, including Upstream operations (oil and gas exploration, development and production, and LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas)) and Downstream operations (refining, petrochemicals, specialty chemicals, marketing and marketing and trading and shipping of crude oil and petroleum products). In addition, Co. is engaged in the coal mining and power generation sectors. Co.'s worldwide operations are conducted through three business segments: Upstream, Refining & Chemicals, and Marketing & Services.
VAALCO Energy is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development and production of crude oil. The company is primarily engaged in its Etame Production Sharing Contract related to the Etame Marin block located offshore the Republic of Gabon in West Africa. The company also owns interests in an undeveloped block offshore Equatorial Guinea, West Africa.
Valeura Energy is engaged in the exploration, development and production of petroleum and natural gas in Turkey and Western Canada. As of Dec 31 2010, proven gross reserves for light and medium oil was 116 thousand barrels (net reserves of 104 thousand barrels); proven gross reserves for heavy oil was 10 thousand barrels (net reserves of 9 thousand barrels); proven gross reserves for natural gas was 1,047 million cubic feet (net reserves of 938 million cubic feet); and proven gross reserves for natural gas liquids was 26 thousand barrels (net reserves of 19 thousand barrels).
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
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