Condor Energies Inc. (TSX: CDR): 2nd success at bypassed carbonate formation intervals boosts production to >12 mboe/d
• Condor has successfully perforated and brought online bypassed carbonate formations at a second well. As a result, production has increased from 11,455 boe/d reported last week to an average of 12,004 boe/d over the last six days.• Using a combination of legacy data and reprocessed 3-D seismic data, five additional well candidates with similar geologic characteristics have been identified. These will be worked over sequentially, with each well taking approximately two weeks.
• Condor is on track to increase production to 14-15 mboe/d by mid-2025, and 15.5-17 mboe/d by YE25. We reiterate our target price of C$5.60 per share, consistent with our ReNAV. Given the fixed-price nature of the commercial terms in Uzbekistan, our valuation of Condor (based on a DCF) is not correlated to oil price movements.
Framing the opportunity in Uzbekistan
Targeting the bypassed carbonate formations is just the first step. These carbonate formations represent only 320 m out of a total column of approximately 1,400 m.
There are also 500 m of shallower Lower Cretaceous clastics with stacked channel sands that are currently producing in offsetting regions. These formations will be drilled during the 2025 campaign and could add to the reserves. Deeper, Condor has identified 580 m of Lower to Middle Jurassic clastics with high quality reservoir sands in diverse depositional settings, as revealed by the recently reprocessed 3D seismic data. These sands could offer significant upside potential.
Valuation
Our ReNAV is unchanged at C$5.60 per share with a Core NAV of C$1.58 per share. The key source of upside continues to be the Kazakh LNG project. We estimate that the first two modular LNG plants are worth ~C$7.50 per share.
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
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