Condor Energies Inc. (TSX: CDR): Up to twelve 13-20 mmcf/d horizontal wells by YE26. First LNG in Kazakhstan on track for 2Q26
• 3Q25 Uzbekistan production to date has averaged 10,284 boe/d; which is consistent with 10,258 boe/d reported in 2Q25.• Drilling of the first vertical well in Uzbekistan is underway, with results expected in October. The well is targeting the producing carbonate reservoir, as well as deeper clastic formations and fractured basement intervals. A successful outcome in the deeper zones could unlock material reserves additions.
• Data from this first well will also be used to optimize subsequent horizontal wells. The company now plans to drill 12 horizontal wells by YE26, using two rigs - a step-up from prior expectations. Each well is forecast to deliver 13–20 mmcf/d, with drilling and completion costs expected to decline from US$4.2 mm to US$3.3 mm. These horizontal wells were not included in the YE24 independent reserves estimates, representing additional upside potential.
• The 2026 field compression project remains budgeted at US$12–20 mm and could increase existing output by 25–55%, more than offsetting the anticipated 18–20% annual natural decline.
• Following interpretation of newly reprocessed 3D seismic data, Condor has mapped 18 new targets, classified as either undrilled attic gas accumulations within producing structures or newly identified prospects. These could extend the drilling programme beyond 2026 and further enhance reserves estimates.
• Reflecting the expanded horizontal drilling programme, we have increased our FY26 production profile from 16.5 mboe/d to 17.7 mboe/d. Even assuming a conservative 10 mmcf/d per new well, the campaign could add ~20 mboe/d overall initial production (pre-decline).
• First LNG production in Kazakhstan is still expected in 2Q26. Pending further details, we reaffirm our target price of C$5.90/sh.
Kazakhstan LNG and valuation
First LNG production from the initial 48,000 gallons/d modular facility at Saryozek remains on track for 2Q26. Plans are now advancing for two additional modular units at the same site, which would increase total Saryozek LNG output to ~150,000 gallons/d for a total capex of ~US$70 mm. This represents a positive development, as our prior valuation assumptions only included new LNG facilities at Kuryk and Alga, and did not factor in the Saryozek expansion. Pending further clarity on capex financing, we have not adjusted our valuation for the LNG business. The unrisked NAV for the initial Saryozek’s 48,000 gallons/d module remains at ~C$1.15/sh. The total unrisked value of Condor’s broader LNG portfolio exceeds C$8.00/sh, while our ReNAV remains unchanged at ~C$5.90/share.
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
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