Report
Simen Mortensen
EUR 473.25 For Business Accounts Only

KPIs and profits reflect cycle-lows

While the sector has rallied on expectations of a recovery in Nordic CRE and residential starts, there are no signs of an actual recovery yet. With our base case still for a gradual sales recovery in 2026, our longer-term estimates remain below consensus, reflecting slow profit-recognition under IFRS – the latter also underlies our expectation of declining revenues and EBIT YOY in Q3 for several names we cover. Our sector top picks are still Skanska, NCC and Veidekke, while we see downside risk for AF Gruppen and the residential developers (YIT, JM, Peab and Selvaag Bolig). We maintain a neutral sector view, and continue to recommend stock-picking.
Underlyings
AF Gruppen ASA

Kilen Brygge ASSandakerveien 99B KSAF Gruppen ASA is a contracting and industrial company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in property, building, civil engineering, environment, and energy businesses in Norway, Sweden, Poland, and the United Kingdom. Co. has divided the business into five operating segments: Civil Engineering, Building, Property, Environment and Energy.

Bonava AB Class B

Bonava AB (publ). Bonava publ AB is a Sweden-based company, which is primarily involved in real estate development industry. The Company operates as a developer of housing units to consumers and investors in Sweden, Germany, Finland, Denmark, Norway, the Russian Federation, Estonia and Latvia. In Germany, the Company's offering is targeted at consumers and investors through both single-family houses and multi-family houses. The Company operates on the basis of an own-produced construction system in Germany, which is used in all new construction, thus enabling an efficient construction process. In Estonia and Latvia, the Company's offering is primarily targeted at consumers, based on multi-family houses. In Russia, it operates solely in Saint Petersburg region with offering comprises of multi-family houses.

JM AB

JM is a developer of housing and residential areas in the Nordic region. Co. focuses its operations on new production of homes, with the main focus on metropolitan areas and university towns in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland and Belgium. Co. is also involved in project development of commercial premises and contract work, primarily in the Greater Stockholm area. Co. is divided into five business units: JM Residential Stockholm, JM Residential Sweden, JM International, JM Property Development and JM Production.

NCC AB Class B

NCC AB is a construction and property development company. Co. develops and builds residential and commercial properties, and constructs industrial facilities and public buildings, roads, civil engineering structures and other infrastructure. Co. also provides input materials used in construction and paving and road services. Co. operates three businesses: Industrial, which are based on stone materials and asphalt production, as well as asphalt paving and road services; Construction and Civil Engineering, which consists of NCC Construction Sweden, NCC Construction Denmark, NCC Construction Finland and NCC Construction Norway; and Development, which encompass housing and commercial property.

NRC Group ASA

NRC Group collects, processes and sells map data. Co. provides services to the Norwegian market, but focuses mainly on projects abroad. Co.'s geo server, BlomURBEX®, enables online distribution of Co.'s products and databases to its customers. The content of BlomURBEX® consists of Co.'s oblique aerial images, TerraItaly® database and 3D city models. Co.'s operations are divided into two main business areas: Blom Geo Engineering Services, which collects and produces geographic information; and Blom Information Services, which provides geographic information as standardized services or through applications adapted to various uses and platforms.

Peab AB Class B

Peab AB is a construction and civil engineering company. Co. has four business areas: Construction, which performs contract work for external customers and the other units and includes construction of homes and premises to renovation and construction maintenance; Civil Engineering, which engages in the local civil engineering market and in infrastructure projects such as bridges, roads and railways and the management and maintenance of streets and roads; Industry, which delivers asphalt, cement, foundations, electricity, transportation, machine and crane services and prefab to external customers and the other units; and Project Development, which develops housing and commercial property.

Selvaag Bolig AS

Selvaag Bolig ASA. Selvaag Bolig ASA, formerly Selvaag Bolig AS, is a Norway-based company engaged in the development of residential properties. The Company manages the entire process, from the purchase of land to the sale of finished homes. The Company operates through such subsidiaries, as Selvaag Bolig Modulbygg, which develops flats and terrace houses with the aid of modules; Meglerhuset Selvaag, which is an estate agency responsible for the sale of the Company's new homes, and Selvaag Pluss Service, which is engaged in the operation of the Company's Pluss Homes that offer security and services, such as cleaning and booking of tickets, among others. The Company's projects are located in Oslo, Stavanger and Bergen, Norway, as well as in Stockholm, Sweden, and include Lorenskog Stasjonby, Nyhavn Brygge, Lervig Brygge Pluss, Bjornasen Start and Utsikten-Mortensrudhoyden, among others. In the second quarter of 2013, the Company sold 200 homes.

Skanska AB Class B

Skanska is a project development and construction group, concentrated on selected home markets in the Nordic region, European countries and in the Americas. Co.'s business streams are: construction, which includes building and civil construction; residential development, which develops residential projects for immediate sale; commercial property development, which initiates, develops, leases and divests commercial property projects, with project development focusing on office buildings, retail and logistics properties; and infrastructure development, engaged in identifying, developing and investing in privately financed infrastructure projects, such as highways, hospitals and schools.

Veidekke ASA

Veidekke is a Scandinavian construction and property development company. Co.'s segments are grouped according to activity. The construction segment comprises mainly the construction of buildings and infrastructure. The property segment comprises the development of sites, property development and the sale of property (primarily residential). The industry segment comprises the production of aggregates (crushed stone and gravel) and asphalt, the laying of asphalt and road maintenance.

YIT Oyj

YIT provides services for the construction sector. Co. has two segments: Housing and Business Premises and Infrastructure. The Housing segment is engaged in the development and construction of housing, holiday homes and entire residential areas, with a focus on its own developments. This segment is also engaged in property maintenance in Russia. The Business Premises and Infrastructure segment is engaged in the development and construction of offices, shopping malls, public facilities, assisted living facilities and other business premises; renovation projects; construction of roads, bridges, tunnels, rail and metro stations, ports and power plants; as well as road and street maintenance.

Provider
DnB Markets
DnB Markets

DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.

 

Analysts
Simen Mortensen

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