reports
- Geir Hiller Holom
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
From the past week, we highlight: 1) with Q1 coming to a close, we highlight valuation trends YTD for Investor, Kinnevik and Latour; 2) Klarna’s prospective IPO would have both direct and indirect effects on Swedish investment companies; and 3) Flerie is set to take Toleranzia private in an all-shares deal.
- Simen Mortensen
Bonava (Hold, TP: SEK10.00) - New but recycled targets
Bonava hosted a CMD on 27 March. While focus was on the expected market recovery, it announced ‘new’ financial targets (recycled old ones), in which the EBIT margin and ROE targets refer to new POC accounting starting in 2025, rather than formal IFRS figures. While recovery was the underlying theme, we do not expect it to be reflected in the Q1 results. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK10 target price.
- Emil Jonsson
Norion Bank (Buy, TP: SEK49.00) - A storm in a teapot
Q1 looks set to be an uneventful quarter – we still await reductions in past-due loans and a Q4 dividend announcement. We believe the market has overreacted to news of Norion’s use of consultants. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK49 (52).
- Jørgen Lian
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Cadeler (Buy, TP: NOK90.00) - Progressing well
Q4 EBITDA was solid, 12% above our forecast and consensus, and 94% of our 2025e EBITDA of EUR296m is supported by firm backlog. Newbuilds are progressing well, and given the backlog coverage, we find Cadeler well positioned to pay dividends in 2027, when all newbuilds are due to be delivered. We calculate a c30% FCF yield to equity after debt amortisation in 2027 (assuming flat NWC), and reiterate our BUY and NOK90 target price.
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Hexagon Composites (Buy, TP: NOK38.00) - Cautious on near-term outlook
We are significantly below consensus on Q1e EBITDA, owing to the challenging US truck market, with the uncertainty in demand, costs, and regulations resulting in lower demand for new trucks and technology shifts taking longer. With most of its business in the US, we consider Hexagon Composites vulnerable. As a result, we have lowered our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 9–15%. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK38 (50) on the weaker near-term outlook.
- Alexander Aukner
- Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Coor Service Management (Buy, TP: SEK52.00) - Self-improvement case ma...
We see signs of Coor’s self-improvement case evolving in Q1, with efficiency actions detailed and a strong FCF reversal likely. In our view, this improves the risk/reward, with internal improvements gaining momentum as the underlying Nordic FM/IFM market remains supportive. After tweaking our 2025–2027e EPS, we reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK52 (48) on a strengthening turnaround case at an attractive valuation.
- Niclas Gehin
Norsk Hydro (Sell, TP: NOK55.00) - Aluminium defying fundamentals
We reiterate our SELL and NOK55 target price, as we believe consensus EPS and aluminium price expectations are too high. We have seen aluminium prices outperform coal prices by 40% since the summer, defying the fundamental relationship where aluminium prices have been set by its cost of production for the past 15 years. We do not believe a balanced global supply/demand situation is likely to break this correlation. We have reduced our 2026–2027e EPS by 3% due to a stronger NOK versus USD. We est...
- Ole Martin Westgaard
Schibsted (Sell, TP: NOK280.00) - Falling short early, high hopes late...
We are significantly below consensus for Q1e EBITDA, expecting underperformance in all segments and verticals, except for Real Estate. We reiterate our SELL and have lowered our target price to NOK280 (290) on our estimate revisions. At our new target price, Schibsted would be trading at a c10% discount to our SOTP.
- Håkon Astrup
Pareto Bank (Buy, TP: NOK84.00) - Set for continued strong profitabili...
Supported by still-solid core revenues and firm cost efficiency, we expect a Q1 ROE of 13.0%, despite some provisions in real estate development. With an updated CET1 requirement of 16.29% (formerly 16.7%), including P2G, we see solid dividend potential and growth capacity. We have raised our 2026–2027e EPS by ~1%, and with the stock trading at a 2026e dividend-adjusted P/E of 8.2x, we continue to find the valuation attractive. Thus, we have raised our target price to NOK84 (76) and reiterate BU...
- Patrik Ling
Arjo (Hold, TP: SEK42.00) - Stable Q1 expected
We are slightly below consensus for Q1, but believe this is due to different FX assumptions and our inclusion of higher one-off costs. We see stable sales and improving growth in 2025, with a new CEO not expected until H2. We reiterate our HOLD, but have trimmed our target price to SEK42 (43) following our forecast adjustments.
- Steffen Evjen
The harsh reality of USD70/bbl
Investors are positioning for lower oil prices, and the perception seems to be that cash flows are set to remain healthy and valuations attractive. We are concerned that overly aggressive consensus FCF facilitates this, as our USD70/bbl calculations imply a normalised FCF yield of only 6–8% for our coverage. With the European majors trading at a 2025–2027e FCF yield of c12%, we struggle to find an attractive risk/reward in large-cap NCS stocks, as the implied returns are negative c10–25% at peer...
- Steffen Evjen
- Jørgen Lian
Stolt-Nielsen (Buy, TP: NOK480.00) - Attractive Tankers-driven cocktai...
Tanker rates are healthy, and the outlook is solid on a record-high tanker fleet age and limited 2025e deliveries. We believe Stolt-Nielsen screens as attractive, trading at an average 2025–2026e adj. P/E of 4.3x (tanker peers 5.5x), despite other segments with more stable revenues accounting for c40% of our 2026e EBIT, which should allow for a premium, in our view. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK480 (540).
- Ole Martin Westgaard
Elektroimportøren (Buy, TP: NOK15.00) - Signs of market improvement
Our Q1 forecasts are slightly below consensus, but with continued improvement YOY on solid revenue growth, gross margin improvement and cost control in both countries. We reiterate our BUY and NOK15 target price as we continue to find the valuation attractive, with signs of improved financial performance and market conditions.
- Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Securitas (Buy, TP: SEK192.00) - More of the same in Q1e
We expect Q1 to show similar trends to the most recent quarters, but negative FX translation effects (strengthening SEK) still result in cuts to our 2025–2027e EPS of 4–5%. We continue to see a robust transformation case, as the journey towards the 8% profit margin target by end-2025 continues, with our H2 2025e EBITA margin now at 7.8–7.9%. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK192 (200).
- Håkon Astrup
Outlook for continued high rates
Although we continue to expect some margin headwind, the outlook for postponed rate cuts – leaving interest rates at continued high levels – should bode well for sector earnings, further supported by a strong profitability focus and modest loan losses. With the sector trading at an average 2026e P/E of c11.0x, and solid dividend potential, we find the valuation undemanding. We reiterate our positive sector view but highlight a larger share of HOLD recommendations than 12 months ago.
- Joachim Gunell
Hexagon (Buy, TP: SEK137.00) - Multifaceted 2025 story unfolding
After recent market volatility, we see upside potential due to: 1) a long-awaited acceleration in organic growth (with defensive traits); 2) earnings momentum translating into YOY adj. EPS growth of 17% in 2025e; 3) the ‘NewCo’ spinoff (c25% of group EBIT) crystallising values; 4) new leadership appealing to a broader international investor base; 5) strong Q4 results that encouraged bulls and de-risked the 2025e case, potentially attracting new investors; and 6) undemanding valuation, in our opi...
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