reports
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Subsea 7 (Buy, TP: NOK260.00) - All eyes on 2025 guidance
We are in line with consensus on Q3e adj. EBITDA and expect 2025 revenue guidance to be the key focus (margin guidance already provided). Our 2025e revenue of USD7.1bn is in line with consensus, with YOY growth supported by an already-secured backlog (69% backlog coverage versus 55% historically), higher dayrates for its PLSVs, and two new fleet additions in 2025. We reiterate our BUY and NOK260 target price.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
Schibsted (Sell, TP: NOK300.00) - Less talk - show acceleration
We believe the Schibsted CMD revealed that its future success is more dependent upon its ability to create revenue growth than pursue low-hanging cost cuts. We reiterate our SELL and NOK300 target price, as we continue to find the valuation rich relative to its peer group and growth prospects.
- Ola Trovatn
Måsøval (Buy, TP: NOK39.00) - Soldiered through a tough quarter
Q3 operating EBIT of NOK-61m was in line with the pre-announced profit warning and reflected biological challenges for Farming Mid (sea lice and ISA) as well as one-off start-up costs for the new harvesting plant in Sales & Processing. Farming West reported solid operational progress and an encouraging outlook. The 2025 volume guidance of 29–31kt was below our 32.6kt estimate, but the 34kt medium-term harvest target was maintained. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK39 (41...
- Håkon Astrup
DNB (No_rec, TP: NOK) - ROE and fee income targets raised
At its 2024 CMD, DNB raised its ROE target from >13% to >14% for 2025–2027. Targeting a CET1 ratio of >16.7% (supervisory expectation), the bank kept its dividend policy of nominally increasing cash dividends, a >50% payout ratio and share buybacks to optimise its capital position. While it continues to target 3–4% annual lending growth and a 9% (previously 4–5%).
- Simen Aas
AAK (Buy, TP: SEK360.00) - 2030 targets in focus
We are positive ahead of the CMD, scheduled to begin at 09:00 CET on 26 November, expecting AAK to raise its 2030 EBIT/kg target to >SEK3/kg and reiterate its ambition to outgrow the market in volumes and >10% EBIT growth p.a. We find consensus 2025–2026e EBIT low, at c3–5%, and believe clarity on structural margin improvements would be positive. We also expect focus on capital allocation, with AAK set to be net cash positive in early 2025e. We reiterate our BUY and SEK360 target price.
- Patrik Ling
Elekta (Hold, TP: SEK69.00) - Still in ‘wait and see’ mode
During its Q1 call, Elekta indicated that H1 would be weaker than H2, and we believe this is reflected by consensus. For Q2, we forecast sales growth of c-5% YOY and organic growth of c-1% YOY. We expect order intake of cSEK4.9bn, broadly in line with consensus, and that the book-to-bill in Q2 should remain well above 1x. We are still cautious regarding Elekta’s longer-term performance, and reiterate our HOLD, while we have lowered our target price to SEK69 (76).
- Steffen Evjen
- Steffen Evjen
Panoro Energy (Buy, TP: NOK38.00) - Exiting the year on a high
We forecast USD17m in Q3 EBITDA (no reliable consensus). While 2024 has been hampered by operational issues, we still see 2024 exit production of ~13kboed, with Dussafu already producing at a plateau of 40kboed (gross) in mid-November. Thus, with most hiccups hopefully over, we believe Panoro is well positioned for significant FCF expansion in 2025–2026e, supported by production growth and a decline in capex. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to NOK38 (39), factoring in increase...
- Steffen Evjen
BW Energy (Buy, TP: NOK33.00) - Dussafu cash flow to fund Maromba
BW Energy reported Q3 EBITDA of USD130m, compared to our USD155m estimate and Bloomberg consensus of USD118m. Due to a successful workover programme for the conventional ESPs and solid operational performance in Gabon, the company has achieved plateau production at Dussafu of 40kboed (gross) before year-end, which is setting the stage for significant cash generation from the Dussafu field into 2025. We reiterate our BUY and NOK33 target price.
- Alexander Aukner
SalMar (Buy, TP: NOK690.00) - Raising long-term ambitions
SalMar’s Q3 report was a mixed bag, with a material cut to the 2024 harvest guidance, 2025 Norwegian harvest guidance in line with consensus, and a new 2028 long-term target of 370kt. The company also raised potential cost synergies by NOK1.25bn between 2024 and 2029, on top of NOK844m already realised. We have cut our 2024–2026e operating EBIT by 5–14%. Our 2025e EPS is 3% below consensus, while 2026e is 8% above. We reiterate our BUY and NOK690 target price.
- Ola Trovatn
Icelandic Salmon (Hold, TP: NOK135.00) - Stabilised biology
Q3 operating EBIT of NOK-35m was slightly below our estimate and consensus of NOK-25m. Biology stabilised in Q3 after a challenging H1, and focus shifted to rebuilding biomass. The 2024 volume guidance of 13kt was unchanged, while 2025 was guided at 15kt, 3.2kt–4.2kt below our estimate and consensus. We have cut our target price to NOK135 (145) on our lowered estimates, and downgraded to HOLD (BUY), with the valuation looking fair at a 2025–2026e P/E of 22.6–9.8x.
- Joachim Gunell
Yubico (Buy, TP: SEK335.00) - Set to unlock flows in 2025
We expect the stock to start trading on the Nasdaq Stockholm (main market) in Q1–Q2 2025, enabling Yubico to broaden its investor base. Also, similar list changes have acted as a share-price catalyst in today’s liquidity and flow-driven markets. Yubico’s international and institutional ownership trails peers, its investor positioning remains negative, with 5.7% of the free float shorted, and a list change could open the door for potential benchmark index inclusion. We reiterate our BUY and SEK33...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Edda Wind (Buy, TP: NOK30.00) - Fleet growth on horizon
We are largely in line with consensus ahead of the Q3 results. Having acted to address operating and financial challenges faced in recent years, we believe Edda Wind is now well placed for earnings growth, with two newbuild start-ups in Q3 and another six due to be delivered in the coming quarters. In October, it secured backlog for its near-term open capacity. In our view, securing backlog for its remaining 2025 deliveries and demonstrating a stable underlying performance will be key to narrowi...
- Patrik Ling
Alvotech (Buy, TP: USD21.00) - Yet another strong quarter
Despite another profitable quarter, the YTD performance and Q4 outlook comments, Alvotech reiterated its full-year sales guidance with the Q3 results, which seems slightly conservative to us. The pipeline is evolving as expected, and we believe several new products should reach the market in the coming years, with the biosimilar to Stelara slated for a US launch in late February. We reiterate our BUY and USD21 target price.
- Steffen Evjen
Equinor (Sell, TP: NOK200.00) - Running out of energy
We expect lowered renewables targets and capex guidance at its Q4 results and Capital Markets Update to be overshadowed by limited will or capacity for attractive shareholder distributions beyond 2025, with a soft production outlook and still-rising capex weighing on FCF. Based on having to fund buybacks from net debt from 2026e, we see significant downside risk for Equinor shares to trade in line with peers on 2026e total shareholder yields. We have downgraded to SELL (HOLD) and cut our target ...
- Patrik Ling
BioArctic (Buy, TP: SEK350.00) - Positive CHMP opinion
With the positive CHMP opinion after the Q3 report, the quarterly results were a non-event. Leqembi can now be launched in the first markets in Europe in H1 2025. On the development side, BioArctic highlighted the pre-clinical data on its Brain Transporter (BT) technology, which showed the mechanism significantly increases the transport of large molecules (mAbs) across the blood brain barrier (BBB). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK350 (270), adding the EU market oppor...
- Douglas Lindahl
Nibe Industrier (Hold, TP: SEK50.00) - The devil is in the details
Q3 marked a second consecutive quarter boosted by a positive contribution from weak-performing acquisitions. Heading into high season, we expect demand to pick-up and further margin improvement. However, having cut our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by 6% on average and our target price to SEK50 (52), we reiterate our HOLD on limited upside potential.
- Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Norva24 (Buy, TP: SEK37.00) - German project headache
The Q3 results were mixed, with German governance issues clouding an otherwise solid performance. Now excluding the prohibited Norwegian Vitec acquisition combined with the German project business challenges, we have cut our 2024–2026e EPS by 3–10% and our target price to SEK37 (39). We reiterate our BUY, still seeing solid potential for a ‘buy-and-build’ sector roll-up case in the fragmented European UIM service market.
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
From the past week, we highlight: 1) Bure reported Q3 results, outperforming the SIXRX by more than 5%-points; 2) VEF’s largest holding, Creditas, reported Q3 numbers, with origination improving 17% QOQ ahead of a profitable growth reacceleration and potential listing; 3) Apotea (10% of Creades’ unlisted assets) announced its intention to go public before year-end; and 4) Kinnevik’s chair is set to step down in 2025.
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Ørsted (Hold, TP: DKK390.00) - Balance sheet risk still in focus
Ørsted reported underlying results on the downside and further construction issues in the US. The reversal of cancellation fees and deferred capex helps near-term liquidity, but we still believe significant asset sales are needed to fix its balance sheet. We reiterate our DKK390 target price and have upgraded the stock to HOLD (SELL), as it is valued on a par with existing business and visible growth. However, we see uncertainty in the US and a weak balance sheet to continue to weigh on the stoc...
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