Equinor (Sell, TP: NOK200.00) - Running out of energy
We expect lowered renewables targets and capex guidance at its Q4 results and Capital Markets Update to be overshadowed by limited will or capacity for attractive shareholder distributions beyond 2025, with a soft production outlook and still-rising capex weighing on FCF. Based on having to fund buybacks from net debt from 2026e, we see significant downside risk for Equinor shares to trade in line with peers on 2026e total shareholder yields. We have downgraded to SELL (HOLD) and cut our target price to NOK200 (300).Equinor is engaged in oil and gas exploration and production activities. Co. is primarily focused on exploration, development and production of oil and gas on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS). Co.'s operations are organized into four segments. The Development and Production Norway and Development and Production International segments explore, develop, produce and extract crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. The Marketing, Processing and Renewable Energy segment markets, trades, transports and processes oil and natural gas and renewable energy. The Other segment consists of global well and project delivery, research and develpoment, and business development.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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