Holmen (Hold, TP: SEK440.00) - Better earnings tailwind elsewhere
Once again, we have cut our 2024–2026 forecasts on lower electricity prices and a more cautious view on the earnings recovery for the depressed wood product division. We continue to believe Holmen is in good shape, and like its shareholder-friendly strategy of prioritising cash distribution through dividends coupled with buybacks. Still, given our forecast of relatively weak earnings momentum in 2025 and low upside potential to our SOTP valuation, we see better risk/reward elsewhere in the forestry sector. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to SEK440 (460).
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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