No longer all about China

ODDO : 2025 : potentiellement un meilleur cru que 2024

L’année 2025 verra, selon nous, une poursuite de la croissance du CA (5% estimé vs 1.5% en 2024e) et de l’amélioration de la marge (53 pb vs 14 pb en 2024e), à l’exception possible de quelques sociétés (marge optimisée ou risque lié aux hausses des droits de douane). Si quelques thématiques devraient rester inchangées (exposition USA, Green Capex, datacenters, etc), d’autres émergeront (construction, discrete automation) ou accélèreront (semiconducteurs) au cours de l’année. Dans ce contexte, nos top picks sont Alstom, Assa Abloy, Siemens et SKF et nous relevons notre recommandation sur Epiroc...

Nordic Semiconductor (Buy, TP: NOK145.00) - Perception-reality gap set to close

We believe 2025 could be the first – and last – year in the next product/technology cycle before the gap between the group’s reported and fundamental competitiveness versus its peers starts to close and the market shifts from being concerned about loss of market share for its nRF52 series towards optimism for its nRF54 series. However, while the market backdrop and downstream inventory are increasingly looking supportive, we still see ongoing near-term legacy risks related to nRF52 competitiveness and potential customer dual-sourcing. In sum, we see a positive risk/reward bias for 2025 and pot...

Green Landscaping Group (Buy, TP: SEK99.00) - Q4 one-offs stole the show

Driven by ongoing issues in the Swedish operation, the Q4 results fell shy of our forecasts, with sales 4% below consensus and EBITA 11% below. Mild weather explained some of the shortfall, while company-specific issues affected the Swedish operation, outweighing otherwise solid performances in Norway and Other Europe as well as group FCF generation. We reiterate our BUY, but on lower margin estimates, we have cut our target price to SEK99 (102).

Stolt-Nielsen Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates, owing to the Q4 report, adjusted near-term guidance and announced growth projects. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We reiterate our NOK540 target price. Stolt-Nilsen still screens as highly appealing exposure to the tanker market, in our view, with a favourable outlook for 2025 on prospects for volume growth, limited 3% deliveries, an aging fleet and >10% of the today’s fleet facing sanctions. Hence, we expect solid earnings ahead, with our estimates implying an 23% average earnings yield for 2025–2...