H1 revenue +24%, profit +23%, forecasts upgraded
AUM jumped 14% over H1-25 (to 30 Sep 24) from £16.6bn to £18.9bn. Net inflows added £1,832m (22% p.a. inflow rate, far higher than all peers, see page 4), and investment returns £534m (3.2% over 6m). Including 50%-owned 8AM Global, Assets-Under-Management/Influence totalled £19.9bn. In the six weeks post-results, AUM/AUI increased another 4% to £20.6bn in early-Nov.This is an exceptionally strong start to the next leg of Tatton’s growth journey. In June ‘24 it set a target of reaching £30bn AUI by end-FY29, an 11% CAGR.
Our previous forecasts assumed average net flows of c£150m per month. That was clearly overly-conservative. Monthly net flows actually averaged £305m over H1-25, far higher than £192m in FY24 and £150m in FY23. We upgrade forecasts assuming net flows of £200m per month for H2-25, as per Tatton guidance, reducing to c£170m per month after that (October net flows: £265m), also as guided.
This change materially increases our FY25 revenue and profit forecasts and our longer-term forecasts (see page 18). In turn, our fundamental valuation increases from 640p per share to 715p.
But with such a superior offering compared to peers in platform MPS (page 5), and structural market tailwinds (page 15), there is certainly potential for Tatton to grow faster than our current forecast and for our fundamental valuation to rise again.
Tatton Asset Management is engaged in providing a range of services to the Financial Conduct Authority ("FCA") directly authorized financial adviser ("DA IFA") marketplace encompassing discretionary fund management, regulatory and compliance services and mortgage services. Co.'s discretionary portfolio management ("DFM") service operates on ten United Kingdom adviser WRAP platforms and can be integrated into the growing number of adviser WRAP platforms in the market. Co. provides support services to independent financial advisors ("IFA"s), enabling DA IFA firms to provide compliant and effective investment portfolio management for their platform based clients.
Equity Development enables companies to become better understood and supported by investors. Since our launch in 1996 we have consistently focused on helping our clients improve their communication and relationships with both existing and potential shareholders. Our clients have come from a wide variety of sectors and domiciles, are both private and quoted and range in size from micro-cap to $multi-billions. We offer free access to company research notes written by experienced analysts. These notes include detailed forecasts, financial models and a fair value. We host regular Private Investor Forums at which investors have the opportunity to hear company directors present, and to ask questions. These are free to attend. We broadcast live Webinars with company management that include active Q&A. We also make the recordings available online. We arrange face to face meetings between private investors and company management. We are active users of Twitter, commenting daily on company news, share price moves, Directors’ Dealings, Equity Development Research Notes & Events.
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